Will Canada get the F-35s in time?

(Ottawa) Will Canada be able to replace its aging fleet of CF-18s before they are to be scrapped starting in 2032 by relying on Lockheed Martin’s F-35 model, as planned do the Trudeau government?

Joel-Denis Bellavance
The Press

Doubts are being raised on this subject even as negotiations take place between senior officials of Public Services and Procurement Canada and representatives of Lockheed Martin to conclude a formal agreement for the acquisition of 88 stealth aircraft F -35 at an expected cost of $19 billion.

In March, the incumbent of this ministry, Filomena Tassi, specified that Canada was to begin receiving the first devices from 2025 if the talks led to an agreement with Lockheed Martin. The last planes must be delivered no later than the end of 2031. Ottawa has given itself until December to conclude a formal agreement.

However, Ministry documents indicate a broader timetable. Canada requires that the first nine aircraft be delivered “no sooner than the 1^er December 2025 and no later than 1^er December 2027”.

Another element that fuels doubts: the F-35 aircraft model (Block 4) that Canada wishes to acquire requires the construction of a new machine that is not yet ready. It is estimated that it could take up to four years before it is developed.

“When we say it will take four years, it really means at least six years. There are always delays in production,” said a military industry source who has worked in the industry for more than 20 years.

In April, the US government’s spending watchdog, the Government Accountability Office (GAO), argued that delays were to be expected in functional testing that needed to be completed before full production could be achieved. F-35 regime.

According to the GAO, there are still hundreds of issues to resolve on devices before they meet requirements. “The more aircraft that are produced and delivered before the issues are resolved, the more likely the program will have to upgrade aircraft, at government expense,” the GAO said in its report.

Yet the need to meet the federal government’s procurement schedule was part of the evaluation of bids from Lockheed Martin and its competitor, the Swedish company Saab’s Gripen.

Lockheed Martin this week declined to comment on possible aircraft delivery delays. “We look forward to continuing our partnership with Canadian industry to produce and support the F-35,” said the American company.

Guaranteed lead times and lower costs for the Gripen

Asked about it, Gripen’s deputy director for Canada, Anders Hakansson, said the Swedish company would have no difficulty in meeting the delivery schedule established by Ottawa.

“Saab’s offer meets both the delivery and operational requirements specified by the Government of Canada. Saab’s bid provides guarantees for aircraft delivery, training and technology transfer within the timelines that Canada has cited as being mandatory requirements of the successful bidder,” he said in a statement to The Press.

The high operating and maintenance costs of Lockheed Martin fighter jets also raise eyebrows, even at the Pentagon. These costs currently amount to about $30,000 per flight hour, almost three times the cost of the Gripen ($13,000).

“Saab provided a fixed price in the bid to the Government of Canada, providing the Canadian taxpayer with predictability in supply. No budgetary surprises. […] Saab was the only eligible bidder to make a fixed price commitment,” said Patrick Palmer, executive vice president of Saab Canada.

Last spring, three fighter jets were still in the running to replace the aging CF-18s. But in December, the cabinet quietly decided to rule out Boeing’s Super Hornet, leaving two options: Saab’s Gripen and Lockheed Martin’s F-35.

The Trudeau government finally set its sights on the F-35 in the spring, even though the Liberals had campaigned against its purchase in 2015.

To date, some 780 F-35 aircraft have been delivered to the United States Armed Forces and to allied nations participating in the aircraft’s development program. Canada has been involved in this program since its inception and has invested some US$600 million so far.