On the eve of the presidential election in Brazil, the prospect of a victory for left-wing candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round is becoming more and more likely, after four years of the erratic and populist regime led by outgoing far-right president Jair Bolsonaro.
Leading in the polls, Lula, 76, of the Workers’ Party (PT), could thus make a spectacular return next Sunday at the head of the first power in Latin America, which he led from 2003 to 2010, and this, in a still very tense political climate that Bolsonaro threatens to ignite further in the event of defeat.
“Brazil is placed before a crucial ballot which aims to overcome hatred and embrace democracy”, summarizes in an interview the political scientist and specialist in Brazilian politics Luísa Turbino Torres, joined a few days ago by The duty at Florida Atlantic University. “Brazilians seem poised to unite against all the violence and authoritarianism embodied by Bolsonaro. »
The changing of the guard at the top of the state gives the impression of being on the move, according to the latest measure of public opinion unveiled on Wednesday by the Genial / Quaest institute and which credits 46% of voting intentions to Lula in the first round. Two points more than a week ago. This represents a 13-point lead over his opponent Jair Bolsonaro, who has stagnated for several weeks at 33%.
A candidate who obtains more than half of the votes cast – without taking into account invalid votes and blank ballots – wins the ballot in the first round, thus avoiding the holding of the second, scheduled for October 30.
After the illusions
Unsurprisingly, the left-wing candidate, Bolsonaro’s pet peeve, has begun his reconquest of the electorate, after four years of populist medicine which has been far from restoring the country to the “greatness” promised. On the eve of the election, Brazil must deal with weak economic growth coupled with galloping inflation, rising unemployment, falling real incomes and increasing poverty, consequences as much of the impressionist policies of the far-right president. than a pandemic that has troubled the world, and whose effects have been amplified by the Russian invasion war in Ukraine.
As a tropical emulator of Donald Trump and admirer of Vladimir Putin, Bolsonaro left his mark by cutting, from his first years in power, in the budgets of education, health and social services. He also encouraged the deforestation of the Amazon and supported the expropriation of indigenous peoples from their ancestral lands for the benefit of mining and agro-industry.
His management of the health crisis linked to COVID-19 has been marked by a lack of compassion for the 687,000 victims of the coronavirus in his country, by his promotion of treatments that fall under quackery, his arrogance in the face of health rules and the delays he caused in setting up vaccination campaigns in his country. A dark record that comes with a clear math: 52% of Brazilians say today that they will never vote for him, whatever happens.
Brazilians seem poised to unite against all the violence and authoritarianism embodied by Bolsonaro.
Conversely, Lula enjoys a much more positive image, after having suffered the political violence of his opponent who succeeded in making him ineligible in 2018 by the prosecution of the anti-corruption judge in the pay of the populist, Sergio Moro, appointed by later Minister of Justice. The left-wing candidate, then sent behind bars, rose in the polls at the dawn of the previous presidential election won by Bolsonaro. Three years later, Brazil’s Supreme Court overturned Lula’s convictions, acknowledging in part a certain “political persecution”.
The leader of the Workers’ Party also benefits from the memory of the significant socio-economic progress made by Brazil during his first two terms and with which Brazilians now dream of reconnecting. The economic context was then more favorable than today, however, with historically high prices for the products exported by the country.
“Lula will win this election. At first ? In the second round? This is the only unknown, sums up at the other end of the line the sociologist Frédéric Vandenberghe, who teaches at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. “Bolsonaro’s rejection is expressed very strongly and he could face a very nice humiliation. But we also know what will happen: he will be unable to leave power in accordance with the rules and he will cry fraud. »
The populist has also been setting the table for months in anticipation of an announced defeat that he could seek to transform into a constitutional crisis and, above all, on the way to continue his slow demolition of Brazilian democracy. The man, an ex-soldier, has never hidden his nostalgia for the dictatorship that hit Brazil hard between 1964 and 1985, even celebrating controversial figures of that time during his presidency.
On Wednesday evening, barely four days before the vote, his party gave a foretaste of the confrontation to come by making public the conclusions of an “audit” that it has been carrying out since July on the electoral system and which concludes, without providing proof, that a group of government employees, with the complicity of entrepreneurs, have the “absolute power to manipulate the results of the vote without leaving a trace”. The Brazilian electoral authority reacted swiftly by denouncing “false and dishonest, unfounded in reality” assertions. She called them a “clear attempt to impede and disrupt the natural course of the electoral process.”
This disinformation campaign, amplified by his followers on social networksclosely follows the threatening statements made by Jair Bolsonaro in early September on the occasion of the country’s national holiday.
In front of thousands of supporters gathered in Brasília, the capital, including reservists, pro-arms activists and evangelical groups, the president then announced that “only God” could “take away” power from him, thus leaving Brazil hovering over the specter of a “6 de Janeiro”, remake Brazil of the attack on the Capitol in Washington on January 6, 2021, by supporters of Donald Trump to derail the process of certification of the results of the vote recognizing the victory by the ballot box of Democrat Joe Biden.
the FinancialTimes recently reported that the president’s son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, his father’s informal ambassador to the United States, had been seen in Washington on the day of this uprising and met several members of the former president’s entourage there. Americans, including conspiratorial entrepreneur Michael Lindell, who continue their campaigns to smear American democracy.
Eduardo is also close to Steve Bannon, one of the architects of Trumpism who represents “The Movement” in Brazil, this network for the promotion of nationalist populism throughout the world.
The army and the courts
“It is very likely that Bolsonaro will claim that the election was “stolen” from him in the same way as Trump, said political scientist Maureen Donaghy, a specialist in Brazil at Rutgers University, in an interview. But the question is whether the military and the courts will support it or not. »
“This threat of a coup d’etat is a bluff,” assures Frédéric Vandenberghe. It is a way for him to prepare the ground to negotiate his freedom, for him and his clan, after his defeat. »
On the eve of the election, Jair Bolsonaro is still being tracked by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who ordered the opening of investigations against him and his entourage, in particular for the dissemination of false information. His family, like members of his cabinet, is also mired in a succession of lawsuits, criminal and legislative investigations into cases of corruption and abuse of power.
“The military have taken advantage of his presence in power for 4 years [en intégrant plusieurs sièges au sein du gouvernement], continues Mr. Vandenberghe, but they too feel that the tide is turning. And he should have a pragmatic attitude in this new context,” he hopes.