A month after the start of the offensive, will Belarus remain the rear base of the Russian army or will it in turn go to war against Ukraine alongside Russia? This second option is judged “increasingly likely” within NATO, according to a military official interviewed by the American chain CNN (in English). While Russian troops are stalling in the face of resistance from the Ukrainian army and resorting to Ossetian, Chechen and Syrian auxiliaries, these Belarusian reinforcements could support the invader in northern Ukraine. It remains to convince the autocrat Alexander Lukashenko, who has long maintained ambivalent relations with the Kremlin.
In power for nearly 30 years, Alexander Lukashenko has always sought to guarantee the sovereignty of his country. But facing Moscow, the Belarusian is not in a position of strength. “He was weakened by the demonstrations of August 2020, after the last presidential election”, notes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, specialist in Russian politics at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). The autocrat suppressed protests against his re-election. At least 37,000 people were arrested between May 2020 and May 2021. And more than 1,000 of them are still imprisoned for political reasons, according to Michelle Bachelet, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. man.
The Belarusian regime is also financially dependent on its powerful Russian neighbor, as noted by the Ministry of Economy and Finance. “Russia can ask him a lot of things in exchange for financial aid”highlighted Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean. During the weekend, Moscow thus postponed by five or six years a deadline for credits contracted by Belarus. “Financial rates can also be tightened or loosened around Lukashenko”adds the researcher.
Sign of a realignment: Belarus adopted a constitutional reform following a referendum at the end of February. With this vote, the country notably abandoned the idea of remaining a “nuclear-free zone”, which paves the way for a possible deployment of Russian atomic weapons on its territory. Again, the Belarusians demonstrated. More than 900 people have been arrested, according to the United Nations High Commissioner. “This rapprochement is also illustrated by the creation of a common military doctrine, which has not been made public”already explained Héloïse Fayet, also a researcher at Ifri, in an interview granted at the end of February to Figaro.
From now on, Alexander Lukashenko “finds himself in a trap he has set himself”observes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. “Last month, he seemed very enthusiastic about participating in joint military maneuvers with the Russian army.notes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. But from there, the latter then launched an offensive on the northern front of Ukraine, which makes Belarus co-belligerent in this conflict.
“Lukashenko dragged our country into this invasion of Ukraine, because he is reimbursing the Kremlin for the support it gave him in 2020”judge in an interview with AFP Thursday Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, figurehead of the Belarusian opposition, considered by Westerners as the real winner of the presidential election of August 2020. For the opponent, “Belarusian people do not support this war”.
“Going to war is not a consensus in society and among the elites, whatever the political orientation of each other”confirm Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean.
The Belarusian generals had not signed for this. It’s one thing to be loyal to Alexander Lukashenko, despite election fraud. It’s another thing to have a guaranteed ticket to court in The Hague.
Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, researcher at Ifriat franceinfo
Could the entry of Belarus into the war alongside Russia reshuffle the cards? The mobilization of Belarusian battalions would complicate the task of the Ukrainian forces, which are already preparing for this eventuality. “If the Belarusian forces ever decide to attack, we will go north to fight”explains a Ukrainian commander in The world. The size of the contingents that could be deployed and their operational level remains to be seen.
“The Belarusian army does not know combat. Unlike the Russian army, it does not have the experience of Georgia or Syria.”
Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, researcher at Ifriat franceinfo
According to the expert, “it is not even certain that interoperability can work on the ground with the Russians. The degree of motivation of these troops can constitute a factor of uncertainty difficult to manage for the Russians, even a risk of handicapping them “. According to her, the mobilization of troops could however be useful to Moscow in two options.
First and foremost to cut off the arrival of Western arms via the Polish border, the hub of arms supply. Then to carry out actions in the Suwalski corridor, a 100 kilometer strip of Polish land, bordering Lithuania, the only land access between NATO members and the Baltic countries. But that would engage Minsk in a direct, high-risk conflict with the Atlantic Alliance.
If Minsk was really enthusiastic about going to war, “The troops [biélorusses] should have arrived two weeks ago”, believes the adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, Anton Herashchenko. According to the Ukrainian intelligence services, quoted by local media, Moscow is already seeking to encourage Belarusians to take part in the war on an individual basis, in particular by offering them a monthly salary of 1,000 to 1,500 dollars per month, or the promise training at Russian universities.
On their side of the border, the Ukrainians have already adapted their communication. Presidential adviser Oleksiy Aristovitch regularly addresses Belarusians. “He encourages them to create a diversion by putting the railways out of service”which transport Russian equipment to Ukraine, details Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. “Several testimonies show that the management system and the signage have been damaged in several points. Since the Second World War, moreover, the Belarusians have been known for ‘partisan’ wars.” Oleksey Aristovitch also speaks to Belarusian soldiers, invoking their “moral duty” not to fight in Ukraine.
Belarusian volunteers are also coming to fight the Russian troops alongside the Ukrainians. “People will understand that Belarusians are not Lukashenko, but instead Belarusians are fighting for the right”testified on franceinfo Gleb gounko, one of those fighters whose number today is impossible to assess. Exiled to Poland after the repression in Minsk, the young man joined a training center in Lviv before going to kyiv.
“Now we must fight not only against the regime, not only for the release of our political prisoners, but also for the Ukrainians, because we understand that the fate of Belarus depends on the fate of Ukraine at this time”, comments the opponent Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa. What about a “Belarusian spring” in the event of military intervention in the neighbor? “The population has already been strongly tested by the repression”, recalls Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. Corn “en case of Russian weakening, all scenarios would then be possible in Belarus”.