why you should care about parliamentary elections

Who will take over from Mario Draghi at the head of Italy? Two months after the centrist was forced to resign by yet another political crisis, the or the future head of the Italian government must be designated during early legislative elections on Sunday 25 September. For the first time, the country could be led by a Prime Minister: Giorgia Meloni, the president of the far-right Fratelli D’Italia party.

Franceinfo explains why you should be interested in these elections which promise, as often in Italy, full of suspense.

Because this election comes after four years of political crises

“Instability in Italy is the rule.” This is how Sofia Ventura, professor of political science at the University of Bologna, explains the succession of crises that have shaken Italian political life since the legislative elections of 2018. In four years, the country has already experienced three different executives, supported by three different majorities in Parliament: the two governments led by Giuseppe Conte, leader of the anti-system Mouvement 5 Etoiles (M5S) party, then the grand coalition formed by Mario Draghi.

This political instability is not new. The complex Italian electoral system inherently prevents the formation of a large majority in Parliament, explain The echoes. On September 25, voters are thus called upon to appoint 200 senators and 400 deputies according to “a mixed system, combining a proportional election by region for two thirds, and a first-past-the-post system for the remaining third”. Clearly, coalitions are almost inevitable. “Until the end of the 1990s, there were frequent changes of government in Italy, but several strong political parties, with a broad base in society, were able to constitute a majority”underlines Sofia Ventura, questioned by franceinfo.

“With the weakening and fragmentation of parties, coupled with the emergence of a sense of popular mistrust of politics, parliamentary majorities are born and die in an instant.”

Sofia Ventura, political scientist at the University of Bologna

at franceinfo

Called in 2021 by President Sergio Mattarella to put an end to the third political crisis in three years, the centrist Mario Draghi has allowed Italy to experience a relative phase of calm. For a year and a half, the former boss of the European Central Bank led a government supported by a coalition of all the parties elected to Parliament except one, the nationalist movement Fratelli d’Italia.

The Draghi government, however, succumbed to “a political game”analyzes Sofia Ventura. “At the end of July, the M5S, the right-wing party Forza Italia and a far-right party, La Ligue, refused to vote confidence in the government. she details. “Their aim was to distance themselves from the executive and take advantage of what they saw as an opportunity to strengthen their electorate“, abounds Jean-Pierre Darnis, professor at the Luiss University in Rome and head of the master’s degree in Franco-Italian relations at the University of the Côte d’Azur. The day after this vote, the Prime Minister submitted his resignation to the President, who dissolved Parliament and called early legislative elections..

Because a far-right candidate could lead Italy

A few days before the election, the polls give the winner to the right-wing coalition bringing together Forza Italia, the party of Silvio Berlusconi, La Ligue, led by Matteo Salvini, and Fratelli d’Italia, the far-right formation of Giorgia Meloni. In mid-August, this alliance gathered around 45% of the voting intentions, against 30% for that of the center left led by the Democratic Party of Enrico Letta. According to the Italian mixed voting system, this would mean that 60% of the deputies of the new legislature would come from the right-wing coalition, specifies Le Figaro.

According to opinion polls, the big winner of the legislative elections would be Giorgia Meloni. His Fratelli d’Italia party is credited with 23 to 26% of the vote, while he had garnered only 4% of the votes in the previous legislative elections, in 2018. “Fratelli d’Italia’s line is very close to that of La Ligue, which had a score of 34% in the 2019 European elections, stresses Sofia Ventura. But since Matteo Salvini chose to leave the government coalition with the M5S in 2019, his party has continued to fall in the polls. And it’s Meloni who benefits.”

Giorgia Meloni indeed enjoys an advantage: that of being “stayed in opposition, even when all the other parties supported Mario Draghi’s grand coalition”points out Jean-Pierre Darnis. “We are in an Italian version of degagism: faced with short political cycles and the multiplication of crises, there is a bonus for criticism”, explains the author of the book Relations between France and Italy and the renewal of the European game (L’Harmattan editions).

“A growing part of Italians would like to give Giorgia Meloni a chance because she has never governed the country, unlike Matteo Salvini who was interior minister and whose party has joined two coalitions in recent years.”

Jean-Pierre Darnis, Italy specialist

at franceinfo

The far-right leader, who is often compared to Marine Le Pen, has also “changes his speech” in recent months, completes Alban Mikoczy, correspondent for France Télévisions in Rome. “She defends a very conservative vision, with God, family and country as central values”, and carries an anti-immigration programhe explains. But at the same time, she has distanced herself from the positive discourse she previously had on Mussolini and she is less Eurosceptic. The objective of this strategy, according to Sofia Ventura? “Giorgia Meloni wants to portray herself as a trustworthy, less radical politician capable of leading the country.”

Because these elections will have consequences for the rest of the EU

The succession of Mario Draghi is of interest beyond Italian borders. “Lhe current context of international and domestic crises (the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the economic and climate crisis, etc.) requires the implementation of reforms in Italy”emphasizes Jean-Pierre Darnis.

“These reforms must be negotiated with the European Union and require a solid and large majority in Parliament. The grand coalition that supported Draghi responded to these imperatives. A more political coalition may encounter difficulties in governing.”

Jean-Pierre Darnis, Italy specialist

at franceinfo

The ability of the new executive to govern (and to reform) is all the more important as Italy must receive a substantial part of the European recovery plan of 750 billion euros, voted after the Covid-19 crisis. In total, Brussels granted Rome 68.9 billion euros in aid and 122.6 billion euros in loans at subsidized rates, notes The world. But European solidarity is subject to one condition: the reform of the judicial system (one of the slowest in Europe), public procurement and the civil service.

In Brussels, there are fears that this new change of government will prevent the measures from succeeding, weakening both the euro zone and European construction. “Mario Draghi’s ability to reform the Italian state and use European funds to revive the economy was considered, especially in Berlin, as a test of the validity of this European solidarity.analyzes as The world.

More broadly, the prospect of having a Eurosceptic party at the head of one of the founding countries of the EU is not insignificant. “Giorgia Meloni no longer talks about leaving the Union, but she defends a sovereignist vision of Europe, close to that of Hungary or Poland.notes Sofia Ventura, professor of political science at the University of Bologna. His policy could jeopardize Italy’s relationship with the EU, the European recovery plan, future economic agreements or European construction as it is carried out today.”