“Who’s ready to fight with us? I don’t see anyone.” In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday 24 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lamented that his country was “left alone” in the face of advancing Russian forces. The Atlantic Alliance announced that it would not send troops directly to Ukraine and US President Joe Biden repeated that he would defend “every inch of NATO territory”while ruling out a direct military response.
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For the moment, Western countries have chosen to reinforce NATO forces in the countries bordering Ukraine, to send military equipment to Kiev and to issue economic and financial sanctions against Moscow. But why don’t they intervene directly? Franceinfo takes stock.
Because Ukraine is not part of NATO
A priori, the member countries of NATO are not going to declare war on Russia, because Ukraine is not a member of its organization. The Alliance therefore has no military, legal or moral obligation to defend it. “According to article 5 of the organization, NATO only has the obligation to intervene when one of its members is attacked”, specifies to franceinfo Laure Delcour, teacher-researcher at the Sorbonne Nouvelle University, specialist in Russia.
NATO can only intervene with the unanimity of its 30 member countries. But for several weeks, the United States like most European countries have announced that they do not intend to send troops there. “NOTwe, that [l’envoi de troupes] was excluded. We support the Ukrainians by sending equipment”French government spokesman Gabriel Attal said on Sunday.
“Vladimir Putin cryptically threatened an even greater response if there was foreign intervention to support Ukraine. This may affect the response of Westerners.”
Laure Delcour, Russia specialistat franceinfo
“A direct confrontation between the forces of NATO and the forces Russians, something very rare, would be very dangerous, because they are nuclear powers”adds Pierre Haroche, specialist in European security at the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (Irsem), in an interview with The Obs (paid article). The United States and Russia together control about 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, recalls Vox (in English).
On the other hand, NATO has begun to deploy elements of its Response Force for the first time to “to avoid overflows on the territory of the Alliance”announced NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Operational since 2004, this force of 40,000 soldiers aims to enable a rapid military response to a conflict.
Because Russia has veto power in the UN Security Council
The UN Security Council can vote for a mandate allowing the deployment of a peacekeeping operation. This operation aims, among other things, to prevent a conflict from spreading across borders, to create an environment for reaching a lasting peace agreement or to help implement global agreements. of peace, specifies the site of the organization.
But Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and any decision against it is doomed to failure. On Friday, Moscow unsurprisingly vetoed a vote on a resolution that lamented in “the strongest terms” his “aggression against Ukraine” and asked him to withdraw “immediately” his troops from this country.
Faced with this failure, the Security Council met again on Sunday to adopt a resolution demanding “a referral to the United Nations General Assembly” so that it organizes on Monday a “special session” on the war between Russia and Ukraine. Such a referral, provided for by a specific UN procedure used very rarely, does not include the possibility of a veto by one of its five permanent members and Moscow will not be able to oppose it.
Because no country wants to engage in a new war
The objective, for Europe as for the United States, is not to “start a war” against Russia, but to dissuade it from going further, as Washington repeats. “The United States seeks to find answers without engaging in an escalation. In their minds, the European theater has become secondary, they are focused on the issues with China, the Indo-Pacific”, to analyse Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, associate researcher at the Thomas-More Institute and specialist in security issues in Europe.
“The United States prefers to isolate Russia and is in a phase of withdrawal from certain international fields, such as Syria or Afghanistan. It does not currently intend to engage elsewhere.”
Laure Delcour, Russia specialistat franceinfo
During an interview with NBC (in English) at the beginning of February, Joe Biden had also declared that he wanted to prevent any direct confrontation with Russia, the world’s second military power, according to the specialized site Global fire power (in English). “It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization… We’re dealing with one of the biggest armies in the world. It’s a very difficult situation and things could quickly get crazy,” had warned the American president.
On the other hand, with the approach of the mid-term elections, Joe Biden seeks to spare his image internally. In an AP-NORC poll, cited by CNN (in English) only 26% of Americans believe that the United States should play a major role in the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Regarding France, “Paris has been very mobilized in recent years in Africa, particularly in Mali, from which France has just withdrawn. There is no question for the moment of sending men back to another field”assesses Laure Delcour.
Because the armies do not all have sufficient capabilities against Russia
According to a parliamentary report dated February 17, the French armed forces do not have the means to support a high-intensity conventional war over the long term, like the one underway in Ukraine.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall, France, like other European countries, wanted to reduce the volume of its armed forces. The number of troops has increased from 453,000 men (and 420,000 reservists) in 1991, to 203,000 (and 41,000 reservists) in 2021, quote Les Echos (paid article). In the same period, the number of tanks increased from 1,349 to 222, that of combat aircraft from 686 to 254. In Germany, the Bundeswehr (Army of Land) saw the number of its soldiers increase from 500 000 in 1989 to less than 200,000 today, specifies The world.
Pale numbers compared to the numbers of Russia, which has 900,000 active soldiers and two million reservists. In December 2021, Westerners assured that Russia had deployed 150,000 troops on its border with Ukraine in a short time.
“In a high-intensity conflict (…) the Air Force [française] would be out of planes in ten days and probably out of missiles in two days.”
General Bruno Maigret, former commander of the strategic air forcesin a parliamentary report
In April 2001, a simulation exercise carried out in Texas, featuring three French, British and American divisions against an enemy of equivalent strength, predicted a thousand deaths in the first five hours of combat. “It would represent a staggering loss for an army of modest size”underlined the general of division Michel Delion, quoted in the parliamentary report.
Only the United States, the largest defense budget in the world, could compete, but they repeated that they did not wish to intervene.