Why Volodymyr Zelensky is changing his diplomatic stance and opening the door to discussions with Russia

The Ukrainian president wants to focus the planned talks with Moscow on three issues: Ukraine’s energy security, free navigation in the Black Sea and prisoner exchanges.

Ukrainian and Russian diplomats soon to meet around the same negotiating table? Volodymyr Zelensky assured Monday, July 15, that he was in favor of Russia’s presence at a future diplomatic summit, at an unspecified date, a month after the conference organized in Switzerland which brought together dozens of leaders, but from which Moscow was excluded. This is the first time since the failure of negotiations in spring 2022, in the first days of the Russian offensive, that the Ukrainian president has raised the idea of ​​direct discussions without a prior withdrawal of Russian soldiers from his territory.

In September 2022, Volodymyr Zelensky’s tone was completely different. “Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia until [Vladimir] Putin is the president”he had hammered home in a video. A few weeks later, Volodymyr Zelensky had even signed a decree making negotiations with Vladimir Putin illegal, reported the Reuters news agency. Nearly two years later, the situation seems to have changed. Military impasse, public pressure, diplomatic strategy… Franceinfo explains the possible reasons for this opening.

To convince the international community and foil Russia’s bluff

For Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, director of the Russia-Eurasia center at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Volodymyr Zelensky’s surprise announcement aims to dispel accusations of an attitude “hard-line”and to demonstrate Ukraine’s interest in diplomacy, “dialogue and negotiation”Ukrainian President Wants to Appease “the states of the ‘Global South'”wary of supporting kyiv – in early June, China and Brazil presented their peace plan, which was very favorable to Russia. This is also a response to the Russian discourse on the issue: “Vladimir Putin keeps sowing discord by saying he is open to negotiation”explains Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. “But in reality, Russian diplomacy is based on a simple principle: the capitulation of Ukraine. This announcement by Zelensky would make Russia face up to these responsibilities.”

To respond to the weariness of Ukrainians

Added to these messages to the rest of the world is Volodymyr Zelensky’s desire to address the concerns of his public, tired of two and a half years of war. According to a poll conducted by a research organization for the Ukrainian news site ZN.ua, 44% of respondents want to open peace negotiations with Russia.

However, “This support for negotiations is often wrongly interpreted as an indicator of openness to accepting Russian demands or a lack of support for the war effort,” recalls the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In a poll commissioned by the foundation in March, 83% of respondents opposed a peace treaty that would involve a reduction in military resources.

This fatigue of Ukrainians is also explained by the power cuts. In June, kyiv announced that it had lost half of its production due to Russian strikes against its infrastructure. In a statement published on Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy expressed concern about consumption which, due to the high temperatures, should reach a level exceeding “widely” remaining capacities.

Because the war is at a military stalemate

Since the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, the Russian army, with superior manpower and firepower, has continued to nibble away at the front line in the east of the country, at the cost of heavy losses in soldiers and equipment. Although the situation has improved for the Ukrainian army in recent weeks, the two sides remain at a stalemate. “This situation is forcing a change of attitude on the Ukrainian side. It is understood that the war cannot be resolved solely on the military level.”analyzes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean.

In May, Vadym Skibitsky, number two in the Ukrainian intelligence services, admitted in an interview with the British magazine The Economist, that the conflict could not be won alone “on the battlefield”. “Such wars can only be concluded by treaties”he had said.

Because it only grants an opening on limited subjects

Ukraine wants to focus future talks only on three of the ten points of the Ukrainian peace plan presented by Volodymyr Zelensky in the fall of 2022: Ukraine’s energy security, free navigation in the Black Sea and prisoner exchanges. “The real strategic issues related to the conflict, such as the country’s membership in the European Union or NATO, are not discussed at all. There is a real desire to agree on the lowest common denominator.”underlines Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean.

On the Russian side, Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin leaders have always made negotiations with kyiv conditional on the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the regions that Moscow claims to annex, and on the assurance that Ukraine renounces joining NATO. Issues that the Ukrainian president is far from putting on the table. “Showing an openness to negotiation is one thing. But achieving tangible results is another.”, says Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean.