why the year 2024 will be synonymous with lower borrowing rates

According to the latest Housing Credit Observatory, the average borrowing rate will start to fall in the second half of the year to approach 3%. We detail all the indicators to monitor.



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The storefront of a Crédit Foncier agency, in Paris, in December 2017. (LIONEL BONAVENTURE / AFP)

After a spectacular 22% drop in sales last year, the real estate market seems to be recovering at the start of 2024, if we are to believe the conclusions of the 15th Housing Credit Observatory (CSA). Several indicators are green, others turn red. Franceinfo takes stock.

Borrowing rates should fall…

In terms of borrowing rates, the peak has been reached and will start to fall, according to the conclusions of the 15th Housing Credit Observatory (CSA). Dor two years, the increase has been continuous. Last December, the average credit rate exceeded 4%, while it was below 1% in December 2021. It we have to go back to 2009 to find identical levels, that is to say just after the global subprime crisis.

But good news, then, we’ve probably just reached the ceiling. The Housing Credit Observatory predicts a rate cut from the second half of the year, with an average borrowing rate around 3.25%.

The duration of credits is increasing

Among the records, there is also the duration of loans to individuals, longer and longer. Lto, this is unheard of. HASToday, buyers are going into debt for the next 21 years on average. He 20 years ago, loans did not exceed a dozen years.

“Since the end of 2021, we have lost a little more than five square meters of purchasing capacity throughout France, regardless of region and income level.”

Fabien Neufinck, Deputy Managing Director of Crédit Logement

at franceinfo

The most sad thing isis that this long repayment period does not even allow borrowers to buy the home of their dreams, observes Fabien Neufinck, Deputy Managing Director of Crédit Logement, which publishes the conclusions of its 15th annual observatory. The rise in rates has reduced the borrowing capacity of households by approximately 17% in 2023. This means that borrowers will carry out slightly less ambitious operations. Either they decide to move to areas where prices are a little lower, or they give up square footage.”

The number of credits should increase

The situation has long been blocked for the request for credits. The number of loans granted increased collapsed last year by almost 40%, after a fall of 20% already recorded in 2022. Good news: in 2024, credit production should increase, 7% at best. On is far from a return to normal. PHowever, everything has changed in the last few months,according to the Housing Credit Observatory.

En 2022, banks have voluntarily closed the credit tap. VSIt was no longer profitable for them. LThe applicants were rejected, he There were no more offers. Today, it is the demand that is lacking. LPotential buyers no longer take the plunge and are not seeking credit, due to pprices that are too high, inflation that is still too high or even the start of a rise in unemployment. Lthere is no confidence, even as banks are again willing to lend.

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