The government is preparing to draw this article of the Constitution which allows a text to be adopted without a vote. It is imminent, the affair of a few hours, we predict. It must be said that the discussion escalates with a multitude of incidents during the session, numerous points of order and increasingly tense exchanges.
>> Fuel, strikes, article 49.3… For the government, a social week of all dangers
Sunday evening, on TF1, Elisabeth Borne had tried to play down the situation. The Prime Minister had even praised the quality of the debates and certain amendments from the majority and the opposition. A kind of Coué method to trivialize the recourse announced at 49.3. But nothing helps, the government does not have an absolute majority and the outcome is therefore inevitable.
For power, it’s a real risk. Firstly because the oppositions will have a good time screaming “denial of democracy” and denouncing a forced passage. This is why the government should also include in the final version of the budget certain amendments made by LR deputies, socialists or communists. Nevertheless, when the executive finds itself strongly contested on the social front, drawing the 49.3 risks antagonizing his opponents a little more. Incidentally, it should be noted that the hopes for dialogue and the search for political compromises born of the result of the legislative elections, inspired by the German model, quickly vanished…
And then, the other risk for the government, of course, is that a motion of censure is voted and causes its fall and the return to the polls since in this case, Emmanuel Macron has already warned that he would dissolve the Assembly. A possible action, but improbable. To be adopted, a motion of censure must be approved by all LR deputies, all those of Nupes and all RN deputies. A rather implausible addition.
The situation will also become more complicated for the left. Are its deputies ready to join forces with the far right to bring down the government? Rebellious elected officials could take the plunge, but not all of them. And even less the PS or Green deputies… United to challenge Emmanuel Macron, the left is in great danger of dividing again, for lack of being able to propose an alternative majority.