why the threat from Central Asia and the Caucasus is strengthening in France

“The Islamic State is now capable of launching attacks remotely,” according to Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin. Threats, after the Moscow attack, particularly taken seriously in France, which raised its Vigipirate threat level to its highest level.

Sentinel force soldiers returned in greater numbers and were more visible in train stations, in front of places of worship and department stores. 4,000 additional soldiers from Operation Sentinel have been deployed in France since Vigipirate was raised to its maximum level on Sunday March 24. This is the consequence of the Moscow attack, which occurred 2,500 kilometers from France and was claimed, despite the Kremlin’s doubts, by the Islamic State group in Khorasan.

If France reacts in this way, it is because the terrorist group accused of having acted in Russia has been monitored very closely in France, and in Europe, for several months.

This branch of Daesh is, according to a well-informed source, one of the most feared Islamist terrorist organizations in France. According to the Minister of the Interior interviewed on France 2, “Daesh is now capable of carrying out attacks remotely”that is to say attacks planned from the Caucasus or Central Asia and committed by people already in France, or who are traveling there.

This terrorist group, which is the Afghan branch of the Islamic State, is all the more complex because its contours are vague: its geographical limits are not precisely established. This is why, according to this source, it is better to speak of a sort of aggregate of several Russian-speaking movements of the Islamist organization. Its area of ​​action is located in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

A large diaspora from the Caucasus and Central Asia

According to a good expert on this terrorist movement, this threat of planned attacks in France and Europe, as was the case since Syria in 2015, is made possible by the fact that this community is fragmented all over the world, especially in Europe. Many people have in fact left Chechnya, Ingushetia, Afghanistan, or even Tajikistan due to the wars and violence they suffered. Among them are people who are very sensitive to Daesh propaganda, in particular those who were released by the Taliban when they regained control of Afghanistan. The instability of this area works in favor of Daesh, points out this source.

According to our information, this propaganda is being renewed and is today produced massively in the languages ​​spoken in the Caucasus and Central Asia. A way for Daesh to more easily target new prey, so that they commit violent actions. This scenario is the one that the French authorities fear the most.

Attacks already committed by people from this area

This threat is not just theoretical since, according to the government, several planned attacks from this movement have been foiled in recent months in France and elsewhere in Europe. Justice is currently investigating one of these aborted projects: in November 2022, seven people were arrested in Strasbourg. The anti-terrorism prosecution wants to know if among these individuals, two men, a 22-year-old Tajik and a 19-year-old Russian, had links with Daesh in Khorasan. In this case, a judicial investigation has been open since November 2022, these two men are indicted for “conspiracy of terrorist criminals with a view to preparing crimes of attack against people”. When requested, the anti-terrorist prosecution confirmed, in view of the investigations, that this group was preparing violent action.

Among the latest attacks committed in France, most were carried out by people from this area, without links with Daesh in Khorasan having yet been established. This is the terrorist, of Chechen nationality who killed history teacher Samuel Paty in Yvelines in 2020. And, more recently, this 21-year-old young man of Ingush origin who killed another teacher in Arras, Dominique Bernard.

To take stock of the state of the terrorist threat in France, Gérald Darmanin asks the prefects to draw up a list of people who are closely monitored before a videoconference meeting on Thursday from the DGSI, the General Directorate of Internal Security. According to the Minister of the Interior, interviewed Monday evening on France 2, the perpetrators of the last eight attacks foiled in France belonged to Daesh. According to Gérald Darmanin, two attacks were foiled in France on January 10 and March 5.