While the decision of the Elders is expected on Friday, the most likely scenario is partial censorship, invalidating certain measures, such as the senior index. The discarded measures could be recycled in a major labor law.
What will happen to the pension reform? While the political and social tension does not fall, the Constitutional Council will make an important decision on Friday April 14 to validate or not the government’s project, which provides in particular for the shift in the retirement age from 62 to 64 years old. The Elders will also have to decide on a possible referendum of shared initiative (RIP) But for the substance of the reform, several options are possible, from a clear and clear validation of the text to total censorship.
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The most likely scenario is partial censorship: the Constitutional Council would then not find much to complain about with regard to the government’s copy, in particular by validating the decline in the retirement age to 64 years. But there is a good chance that the Sages will still match their decision with clean cuts.
The famous index on the employment of seniors is for example threatened. It plans to oblige companies to declare their employees over the age of 55. According to several specialists, this measure looks like a “rider”, in other words, it has nothing to do with it since the government has chosen an amending social security financing bill (PLFSSR) for its reform. To comply with the law, these provisions must have a budgetary impact on the current year. However, this senior index does not necessarily have one, unlike the shift in the retirement age, which must begin gradually from September 1.
Officially, there is no concern in the government. “We weren’t there like a hussar”, jokes even a pillar of the majority, way of saying that the pension reform has been lined, which is rather good since the executive makes this decision of the Constitutional Council a real justice of the peace.
The hard core of the reform preserved
This scenario of probable censorship is, basically, the one that would suit the executive the most, because it would allow the government to flex its muscles, shouting from the rooftops that its reform has not been unraveled and that its hard core has been preserved. This political argument is all found to say that the law has completed its “democratic journey”, become the buzzword in government. Emmanuel Macron will have 15 days, after the decision, to promulgate everything that the Constitutional Council has validated. This promulgation could be accompanied by a solemn address on which many of his relatives are thinking. “The unions will find it more difficult to mobilize“, estimates an influential deputy, for whom the tension will be able to begin to drop in the country.
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Laurent Berger also believes that the decision of the Elders, whatever it is, will prevail “to everybody”. Translation of the boss of the CFDT: “I will continue to say that this reform is unfair, but democratically, it is legitimate”.
I’Elysée, like Matignon, nevertheless anticipated this partial censorship. The discarded measures could be recycled in a major labor law, a good argument to re-invite the unions to sit down at the negotiating table, without certainty that they will agree to discuss, without certainty either that the mobilization will stop for the day. on the next day.