why the role of the National Rally remains central in the choice of the Prime Minister

What does the National Rally want? The question is far from trivial in the current political situation, with a National Assembly divided into three blocs and without a clear majority. The entourage of Jordan Bardella, president of the party, informed franceinfo on Tuesday, September 3, that the RN was ready to accept a technical government under certain conditions, in particular the establishment of proportional representation for the next legislative elections. This could perhaps guide the choice of Emmanuel Macron, who is continuing his consultations to find a Prime Minister, almost two months after the early legislative elections.

Of course, the far-right party is no longer an immediate candidate for power. After the second round of the legislative elections, it even moved from the position of“main actor” to that of “spectator”notes sociologist and extreme right specialist Erwan Lecœur. The slogan “Bardella Prime Minister” has lived. Coming third in the early July election, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s former party was unable to claim Matignon. But with an unprecedented 126 deputies, Marine Le Pen’s group has established itself as a central force in the National Assembly, which must be taken into account when choosing the Prime Minister. “NWe are essential to pass a motion of censure or even vote on or reject a text”boasts RN MP Julien Odoul.

In the absence of a coalition between the left and the Republican right, the far-right party – with the possible reinforcement of the 16 deputies from Eric Ciotti’s group – is capable of bringing decisive weight to overthrow a government, it is acknowledged in the Macronist camp.

“The National Rally holds the keys to censorship.”

An advisor to the executive

to franceinfo

“They are in the majority with the NFP if they decide to act in concert for anything”notes Renaissance MP Mathieu Lefèvre. “Emmanuel Macron is looking for someone that the RN will not censor, otherwise it won’t workadds Erwan Lecœur. Marine Le Pen is the mistress of the game. She can say: ‘So-and-so I censor, so-and-so I don’t censor’.”

Problem: the strategy of the far-right party is variable and not very clear to the presidential camp. On July 11, Marine Le Pen had to take over the secretary general of her group, Renaud Labaye. “As a matter of principle, we never censor for the sake of censorship. Everything will depend on the government, the general policy discourse or the texts presented.”he assured the Figaro about a possible nomination to Matignon of the left-wing candidate, Lucie Castets. “The RN group will censor any government where LFI and environmentalists have ministerial responsibilities”Marine Le Pen immediately clarified on X. Jordan Bardella went even further, announcing on X that his party “would immediately censor a minority NFP government”in fact including other left-wing forces.

“We feel the different sequences in them”observes Renaissance MP Antoine Armand.Act 1: They try to make people forget their disastrous candidates from the legislative campaign. Act 2: They speak out again, but get confused about who and what to censor.”

On August 26, after being received at the Elysée, Marine Le Pen also dismissed the hypothesis of a technical government. “I don’t believe it at all. (…) There are only political governments hidden behind technical names”declared the former presidential candidate. According to the latest statements from Jordan Bardella’s entourage, the RN seems to have changed its mind on the issue.

This turnaround hardly surprises Erwan Lecœur. The party with the flame would benefit from having a technical government, which would place Emmanuel Macron in the front line, believes this teacher-researcher at the University of Grenoble Alpes.

“Marine Le Pen has an interest in having the most puppet government possible, which depends entirely on Macron so that she can criticize him every day. A technical government would allow her to target the president.”

Erwan Lecœur, specialist in the extreme right

to franceinfo

However, the RN rejected the option of Thierry Beaudet, the president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council, whose possible nomination to Matignon was much discussed on Monday. Such a figure would represent docility towards the Elysée, “lackey incarnate”according to RN MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy. The party with the flame was not very pleased with Thierry Beaudet’s anti-RN positions four days before the first round of the legislative elections. “The RN is endangering the future of intermediate bodies”he said in an interview with The Tribuneafter also publicly opposing the immigration law.

More political options, whether from the right or the left, are not much more favoured by the RN. The party said on Tuesday that it wanted to censure a government led by Xavier Bertrand or Bernard Cazeneuve, whose names are circulating for Matignon. From her interview with the head of state at the end of August, Marine Le Pen had assured that she did not want Xavier Bertrand. In 2015, she lost to the former Minister of Health during the regional elections in Hauts-de-France. “We have known someone who is a little firmer and less submissive to Macron than Xavier Bertrand in the ranks of the right”justifies Julien Odoul.

As in the previous legislature, the RN is in the position of arbiter. “The Cazeneuve, Beaudet, Bertrand hypothesis… All this only holds up based on the attitude of the RNanalyzes political scientist Benjamin Morel. The RN also has an interest in demonstrating its credibility and responsibility and in raising the stakes. This is called support without participation from the RN.”

On August 26, Marine Le Pen was highlighting the respectability of her party. “We said: ‘Either there will be a stable National Rally majority, or there will be chaos.’ Emmanuel Macron has chosen chaos”she assured. In reality, Marine Le Pen has every interest in seeing this political cacophony continue, while adopting a superior attitude. “The idea for the RN is: ‘The more chaos there is, the more we will appear as democrats and the more we will take advantage of this chaos to reach the next presidential election.”says Erwan Lecœur. In the meantime, the RN is revelling in its ability to bring down any government, whenever it deems appropriate. “Censorship depends on the political line. We are free,” smiles Jean-Philippe Tanguy.