They could provide valuable support to far-right elected officials to get certain texts adopted, as they have sometimes done with the presidential camp. Within the party, opinions diverge on this perspective.
:quality(50)/2023/06/06/647efdcbc766b_images.jpg)
Published
Reading time: 4 min
:quality(50)/2024/07/01/075-savoranineri-francepo240604-npkxt-6682bbe950748190661291.jpg)
They were the pivotal group during the previous legislature. For two years, Les Républicains and their 61 deputies often served as support for the presidential camp, which only had a relative majority, to pass its texts. Will the right-wing party play the same role in an Assembly dominated by the National Rally and its allies? On the evening of the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 30, LR, greatly weakened by several electoral defeats, relatively limited the damage by collecting 10.2% of the votes, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior.
The party, which refused to follow its president Eric Ciotti into an alliance with the far right, is qualified in 54 constituencies. “As in 2022, we can imagine that the qualified LRs are in a good position for the second round, because they can recover the votes of a lot of candidates eliminated in the first round, particularly during the duels, observes Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos polling institute. Two years ago, those who managed to qualify generally did very well afterwards.”
While the left and the presidential camp have given voting instructions to beat the RN, the leadership of the Republicans has, as in the 2022 legislative elections, decided to leave its voters free. Result: party figures have opted for opposing positions. “Personally, I regret this lack of choice.”lamented outgoing MP Virginie Duby-Muller on France Inter. “When there were the presidential elections [de 2017 et 2022] and the National Rally against Emmanuel Macron, I had clearly said that I would vote for Emmanuel Macron.” On TF1, the head of the European list François-Xavier Bellamy estimated for his part that “The danger that threatens our country today is the extreme left.”
Dissonances that make it difficult to read the position of the LR group and its future role within a hemicycle in which the RN would have a relative majority. Moreover, many of them are dodging the issue on this subject. “This week, we are devoting it to supporting our candidates, not to conjecture”responds Bruno Retailleau, the leader of the LR senators. “We will make our hypotheses based on the precise concrete results of the evening of the 7th!”also assures the outgoing deputy of Manche Philippe Gosselin. “We’re not there yet, attitude-wise”is also being swept aside by the outgoing group in the Assembly. Others also recall that Jordan Bardella assured that he would refuse power if the RN did not obtain an absolute majority. “We are waiting for the second round. I think they will be far from the absolute majority, and I do not know if they will agree to form a government,” “This is what an LR executive points out. The far right would then not be able to dictate the agenda of the National Assembly.
But in this scenario, the right-wing troops could play a key role in the new chamber, according to experts.EIn the event of a relative majority, they would indeed be in a good position, notes Mathieu Gallard. Either, possibly, to serve as a supplement to an RN with a strong relative majority. Or, if the RN is at a rather low level, as an essential player in an alternative majority going from the left to the right.”
Imagining LR as a supporting force for the RN raises a smile in the presidential camp. “The LR have not necessarily changed”, tackles the outgoing Renaissance MP Marc Ferracci, close to Emmanuel Macron. “For two years, they have had a lot of trouble working collectively. If the RN needs LR as a pivotal group, they will be confronted with the problem that we have faced throughout this legislature: it was a union of self-employed politicians.” During the examination of the pension reform, the Macronists had torn their hair out trying to count the votes in favor of the text from the ranks of the Republicans, who were strongly divided on the subject. The presidential majority had finally preferred not to take the risk of relying on them, by drawing article 49.3 of the Constitution.
Asked about their future conduct in relation to the potential texts presented by the RN, few outgoing LR deputies have responded at this time. But those who do are already drawing divergences. The only party deputy re-elected in the first round, Philippe Juvin announced that he would vote for the laws that “look good” and will oppose “to those who seem bad”. “It’s all common sense”, he justifies. Jean-Yves Bony, The outgoing LR MP for Cantal, who has withdrawn from his party for the moment, is on the same line: “As I have always done, when the texts go in the right direction, for our rurality, for France, I do not look at where the proposals come from: I vote and I support.”
But others do not share this position, without saying so openly. “My first political memory is Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round. I will be elected against the RNconfides another outgoing candidate, in a favorable position in his constituency. For the major texts of the RN, I will not be their crutch if they do not have an absolute majority.” Will the future LR deputies manage to determine a common line? The question remains.