Why the price of gas will increase on July 1

This increase, anticipated for a long time, is linked to the increase in distribution costs, while the price of the raw material is lower than at the height of the energy crisis.

The announcement came early on Monday June 10, a few hours after the dissolution of the National Assembly. There Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) has warned that the amount of gas bills for millions of French people will increase by 11.7% on average on July 1 compared to June (down 3.5% compared to January despite everything), the day after the first round of the legislative elections, scheduled for June 30. The average level of the reference price will be 129.20 euros including tax per megawatt hour (MWh), compared to 115.70 euros/MWh in June, according to the CRE.

That was all it took to launch the campaign: the National Rally, which attributes this increase to the State, announced thatthat its first measure in the event of victory in the legislative elections and cohabitation would be“stop the rise in gas prices”. Its vice-president, Sébastien Chenu, explained Tuesday June 11 on CNews that this decision, “a measure of purchasing power”, would aim to “give oxygen back to the French”. At the same time, on BFMTV, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, promised that “the electricity bill for all French people will drop by 10 to 15% in February 2025”.

This increase in the price of gas, which should concern a large part of the 10 million residential subscribers to the GRDF network, is however not linked to the political situation. It is elet alone a surprise. This announcement from the CRE, an independent authority, had been planned for a long time. In February, she declared herself in favor of an increase in network prices from July 1. A decision linked essentially to the increase in distribution costs, rather than to the price of energy, which was lower than at the height of the energy crisis.

In a context of falling gas consumption, this increase is linked to the revaluation of the network usage tariff, revised every four years. It covers the gas transport costs borne by the network manager (GRDF) and is invoiced by suppliers to consumers. This increase in the gas bill, which is divided into three components (taxes, the network and the price of the gas molecule), must also finance the energy transition.

While the price shields put in place by the government to limit the rise in energy prices have ended, there was a lot of talk about energy during the campaign European elections. Insoumise France wanted to leave of the European electricity market, while the RN defended “A French electricity prices. While nearly one in three households encountered difficulties paying their energy bills in 2023, according to the Energie-info barometer carried out in autumn 2023 by the energy mediator, purchasing power is among the priorities of the French.

“Despite the recent decline, there has been a sharp rise in energy prices over the past three years. This constrained spending has an immediate impact on purchasing power,” analyzes Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions.

“Residents in rural and peri-urban areas are more affected than those in city centers and urban areas.”

Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions

at franceinfo

To justify a halt to the increase in gas prices if the RN came to power, Sébastien Chenu also mentioned French “wrung out and asphyxiated” by invoices.

“This question represents a natural junction with the European ones, where there was a lot of talk about the price of electricity, and it is a theme with strong symbolic value which affects everyone,” estimates Théo Verdier, expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and specialist in opinion campaigns.