The summer is likely to be hectic for the executive. After losing an absolute majority in the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron will now have to do without 21 precious seats in the National Assembly. With the reshuffle announced Monday, July 4, it is indeed 11 deputies who entered the new government in addition to the 10 deputies-ministers already in office in the first government of Elisabeth Borne.
>> Reshuffle: discover the composition of the new government of Elisabeth Borne
According to the Electoral Code and more specifically article LO 176, “them deputies who accept governmental functions are replaced, until the expiry of a period of one month following the cessation of these functions, by the persons elected at the same time as them for this purpose.. In other words: all the deputies elected or re-elected in the last legislative elections and currently members of the government cannot hand over to their substitutes within 30 days.
There are actually two scenarios. For the 10 deputies appointed ministers from May 21, the deadline begins on June 22, the first day of the opening of the new legislature. Olivier Véran, Gérald Darmanin, Gabriel Attal, Stanislas Guérini or even Elisabeth Borne can therefore be replaced by their substitutes, from July 22. On the other hand, for the 11 parliamentarians who became ministers or secretaries of state on Monday July 4, such as Agnès Firmin-Le Bodo, Hervé Berville or even Patricia Mirallès, the 30-day period begins on the date of their appointment and will be replaced in a month, from August 4th.
“This reshuffle is delicate for Emmanuel Macron because it brings down the majority to 229 deputies and the risk of seeing the next bills blocked is significant”analyzes the constitutionalist Jean-Philippe Derosier.
“If all the deputies of the RN and the four political groups of the Nupes decide to vote against the first texts of the government, they will be in a position of strength because more numerous than those of the presidential majority, with 11 votes”
Jean-Philippe Derosier, constitutionalistat franceinfo
The next bills presented by the government such as the text on “emergency measures for the protection of purchasing power“will for example be examined in the Hemicycle from July 18, a few days before the official sitting of the 21 substitutes for the deputies appointed as ministers. This is also the case for the bill on Covid-19 provided for in the calendar July 11.
This risk of deadlock divides the parliamentarians of the majority. “It is true that this can be a problem if the votes are tight”recognizes Laurent Marcangeli, the president of the Horizons group in the National Assembly. Denis Masséglia, LREM deputy for Maine-et-Loire, does not hide his concern either. “The absence of 21 deputies may make certain votes more complicated in the coming weeks. They are also experienced deputies who will not be present in the majority at an extremely political moment.”
On the other hand, several deputies of the majority want to put into perspective the consequences of such a reshuffle for the executive. “I don’t think that poses a particular difficulty. Admittedly, we are a relative majority but we have a margin compared to the other groups so that they reach the majority in front of us”projects Damien Adam, Macronist deputy for Seine-Maritime.
“We would be at 291 deputies for the presidential majority and we would lose 15, there that would mean that we would be weakened because we would go from an absolute majority to a relative majority. But as we are already at a relative majority, the exercise remains the same.”
Aurore Bergé, president of the LREM group at the National Assemblyat franceinfo
Among the almost immediate consequences of these 21 missing seats for the majority: Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne’s decision not to solicit the traditional vote of confidence from deputies during her general policy speech scheduled for Wednesday. “We were wondering a few days ago whether Elisabeth Borne intended to ask for the confidence of the Assembly as tradition dictates. With these 21 votes less, it now seems very unlikely that she will take that risk. “analyzed before this announcement the political scientist Bruno Cautrès.