The result of these votes, organized on Saturday, could worsen the crisis between this island state and communist China. Enough to threaten stability in the region as well as the global economy.
The Taiwanese are preparing for a tense vote. Called to the polls on Saturday January 13, voters in this country of nearly 24 million inhabitants must nominate their parliamentarians as well as their president. But their choice could have consequences that extend far beyond the island’s shores. Starting with a darkening of relations with China, which has considered Taiwan to be an integral part of its territory since 1949.
Beijing actually takes a dim view of the poll favorite for the presidential election, the current vice-president William Lai, from the Democratic and Progressive Party (DPP). In power since 2016, the DPP advocates autonomy and cooperation with the United States in particular. The 64-year-old politician is thus considered a “serious danger”according to China, which has increased intimidation against Taiwan in recent years, constantly raising the threat of a military invasion.
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Tuesday’s launch of a rocket carrying a Chinese satellite north of Taiwan caused confusion on the island, after a missile alert was sent to all cell phones on the national network. On Friday, the Chinese military also announced that it “would crush” any project“independence” from the island. The day before, Beijing had officially called on the United States not to “not get involved” of the ballot.
In this climate of excitement, the Americans, Taiwan’s main military allies, are closely monitoring Saturday’s elections and are also urging China to respect their results. An American official thus announced the sending of a “informal delegation” on the spot. Because a conflagration in the Taiwan Strait would pose a serious challenge to Washington and represent a major risk for the world economy.
A campaign focused on China
On Saturday, three major parties are contesting the elections. The Kuomintang (KMT), the oldest, hopes to regain the power lost in 2016. The DPP seeks to keep it for four more years. More recently, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has seen a significant rise in the polls and wants to establish itself as the third political force in the country, by gaining influence in Parliament.
“During the campaign, discussions focused in particular on energy, housing and the birth rate, themes dear to the Taiwanese”explains Marc Julienne, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and specialist in the region. “But China still remains at the center of the electoral game and represents the main opposition between the candidate lines”, he recalls. And the doctor in political science warns: these dissensions are “more complex than it seems”.
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After decades of quarrels between supporters of unification with China and supporters of independence, “traditional political divisions have been erased”, underlines Marc Julienne. The DPP abandoned its proposed declaration of independence, “because the party considers that Taiwan has all the attributes of an independent state”, he explains. On the other side of the chessboard, the Kuomintang no longer advocates for unification, “because it would be electoral suicide in the face of a strengthened Taiwanese identity”, explains the researcher. In Taiwan, there is now disagreement over the attitude to adopt towards China. For fear of war, should we reopen the channels of discussion and collaborate economically with Beijing, as proposed Hou Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je, KMT and TPP candidates respectively? Or refuse “false peace” and ignore this neighbor as long as he is threatening, as William Lai demands?
Military and energy issues
In the background of these debates, China’s maneuvers are incessant. In recent years, Beijing has carried out a considerable number of maritime patrols, simulated invasions and incursions into the island’s identification and air defense zone (Adiz), a perimeter starting 200 km from the coast. One week before the elections, four balloons launched by Beijing and around ten military planes were spotted by the Taiwanese army, while local NGOs denounce Chinese disinformation campaigns by SMS and on social networks, as reported by France 24.
Concerning defense issues, the different parties are more or less in agreement on many points, such as extending the duration of military service to 12 months or even strengthening the capabilities of its army. An essential subject for Taiwan, which has twelve times fewer troops than Beijing, recalls the magazine Time. Where the candidates oppose each other is on the subject of energy autonomy, while the island still relies enormously on the outside to supply itself with gas and oil. Added to an aging network, this dependence “reveals a significant weakness in Taiwan’s defense”explains researcher Anthony Ho-fai Li in a note for the University of Nottingham.
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If the parties have the “same objective”namely achieving everything renewable, “their instruments are different”, he recalls. The use of nuclear power divides in particular the DPP, in favor of a total exit by 2025, and the opposition parties, who want to reopen all or part of the country’s four power stations. “Nuclear is a question of energy sovereignty, but also of national security”explains Marc Julienne.
“In scenarios of blockade put in place by China, or even invasion, Taiwan’s very low energy autonomy is an important issue.”
Marc Julienne, China specialistat franceinfo
Very committed to Taiwan in recent years, the United States continues its policy “strategic ambiguity” launched in the early 1980s. Clearly, Washington does not support the idea of formal independence for Taiwan, but has always warned that the country would not tolerate reunification by force. This is also what American President Joe Biden repeated to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during their meeting in mid-November.
An ever more tense situation
But if each camp says it wants to avoid war, tensions around Taiwan have only increased as the elections approach. The United States indeed created astonishment by announcing, at the end of August 2023, direct military aid to Taiwan – a first in relations between the two countries. “US aid and military sales… harm the security and well-being of fellow Taiwanese”then denounced the Chinese Ministry of Defense.
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More recently, the The latest statements by the Chinese president have caused concern in the White House. During his wishes for 2024, Xi Jinping assured that “China will inevitably be reunified” and “all Chinese, on either side of the Taiwan Strait”must share a common objective: “the glory of the Chinese nation”.
Faced with Beijing’s projects, the United States has not changed its stated will: “Oppose any change in the status quo, by either party”as the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, declared last June.
“Quarrels between Taiwan and China were frequent but only lasted a few weeks or months. Since 2020, the crisis has become permanent.”
Marc Julienne, China specialistat franceinfo
It must be said that Washington, like the rest of the world, has every interest in avoiding conflagration around Taiwan. “Japan, South Korea and the Philippines do not hide their concerns, as does the European Union”explains the researcher, who evokes a conflict whose effects would be broader than the war in Ukraine or that between Israel and Hamas.
The fear of a new conflict
“Everyone is linked with Taiwanunderlines Marc Julienne. The strait is an extremely important international trade route, the slightest incident or even accident in this region of the world will have very serious consequences..“ Main manufacturer of medium and high-end semiconductors, Taiwan also supplies many essential industries, such as automobiles and IT. The country is well aware of the importance of its know-how, which it uses as a shield and to continue to exist in the eyes of the world.
“All stakeholders are scrutinizing these elections, because the risk of escalation is very high.”
Marc Julienne, China specialistat franceinfo
“There is talk of an economic crisis, but above all of a possible war with several nations involved, or even a world war”continues the researcher.
Before going to the polling stations, more and more people on the island have turned to weapons training in recent months, as observed by the Australian channel ABC News. One symptom among others of the ever-increasing anxiety hitting the region.