why the Israeli army is delaying launching its ground offensive in Gaza

“We want to completely dismantle Hamas, its leaders, its military wing and its operating mechanisms”declared Israeli Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, on the night of Monday October 23 to Tuesday October 24, in a video posted on X by the Israeli army. Since the terrorist attack on its territory on October 7, Israel has vowed to destroy the Islamist movement in power in the Gaza Strip. In two weeks, airstrikes intensified and thousands of Israeli soldiers were deployed along the border with the Palestinian enclave. However, the ground military operation announced by Tel Aviv has still not taken place.

Monday, daily life Times of Israel reported that the army stood “ready”, but now fears that “ the government never gives the order to launch the ground offensive, or postpones it”. This wait “hurts the nerves of the population, the army and the government”analyzes Haaretz, another Israeli newspaper, on Tuesday, estimating that “the crisis of confidence is worsening between the government and the general staff, and within the government itself.” Given the determination displayed by the Jewish State, how can we explain that the operation was not launched?

Because negotiations to free the hostages are underway

According to the Israeli authorities’ count, around 220 people are still detained by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. After releasing two American hostages, a mother and her teenage daughter, on Friday, the Islamist movement released on Monday two women aged 85 and 79, also kidnapped during its October 7 attacks. These releases maintain hope about the talks, and help, according to experts, to keep the troops waiting. “How do you want to launch a ground attack when you are made to believe that negotiation is possible?”noted General Dominique Trinquand on Sunday, on franceinfo, pointing out the “absolute Machiavellianism” of what he sees as a strategy of the terrorist group: “I don’t believe for a moment in the humanity of Hamas and in its desire to free the hostages.”

However, this question remains a powerful diplomatic lever. Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that, according to officials close to the discussions, Hamas would agree to release 50 hostages, including nationals of foreign countries, in exchange for fuel deliveries to the Gaza Strip. At the same time, pressure from families is increasing on the Israeli government to prioritize these negotiations, over potential ground maneuvers that would close this window for discussion.

This pressure is also exerted by foreign leaders: “The first objective we should have today is the release of all hostages, without any distinction”declared Emmanuel Macron alongside Israeli President Isaac Herzog upon his arrival in Jerusalem on Tuesday.

Because it is not necessarily the best suited military strategy

For Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, this offensive on the Gaza Strip will be “the last (…) for the simple reason that after it, there will be no more Hamas”, he assured at the Israeli Air Force command center in Tel Aviv. ” It will take a month, two months, three months, but in the end there will be no more Hamas.” A way of preparing public opinion for a conflict which could last and cause very heavy losses within the Israeli forces.

However, for many military experts, this humanly costly strategy is not the most appropriate, given the structure of the Islamist organization, whose members are blended into the mass of the 2.4 million Palestinian civilians living in the enclave. “Hamas is what we call in military parlance a ‘soft target’. That is to say, we do not know how to destroy it with a land invasion.”analyzed former officer Guillaume Ancel, Thursday, on franceinfo. “However, this is what the Israelis have prepared for the moment, for lack of an alternative”continues the expert.

“Israel is exactly in the trap set by Hamas.”

Guillaume Ancel, specialist in defense issues

at franceinfo

“The Israeli army is very effective in the air. It can cause destruction, as we saw in Gaza, (…) but it cannot guarantee the success of its infantry,” explained on Sunday, on the Qatari channel Al Jazeeramilitary expert Elijah Magnier, who recalls that the IDF found itself in great difficulty during its last ground intervention in the Gaza Strip, in 2014. “It’s not the air force that’s going to occupy one street after another. Fighting in an urban context is no easy feat, it’s extremely difficult, even for the Israeli armies.”

Thus, for American general David Petraeus, who led the troops engaged by the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, “if [le Hamas] is as creative in defending Gaza as he was in carrying out his abominable barbaric attacks [du 7 octobre en Israël]then we will see suicide bombers, homemade explosive devices, ambushes, traps and, of course, this urban terrain, which poses the most problems”, he warned in a podcast on the Politico website.

Because the Israeli army is not yet ready

The Israeli army continues its preparations for a ground offensive, massing soldiers on the outskirts of the Gaza Strip. “Israel cannot say that it is abandoning the offensive it had planned, but the ultimatum is postponed day by day,” noted General Dominique Trinquant on Sunday on franceinfo. ” There are still commando infiltrations into the Gaza Strip to prepare for the offensive, to define the objectives to be struck by the Israeli air force, and perhaps to identify where the hostages are. But for the triggering, a political decision will be necessary.” he continued. However, this decision has so far been postponed in the name of preparing the ground. The mobilization, equipment and training of the 360,000 reservist soldiers first justified that the Jewish state does not attempt ground maneuvers, analyzed Sunday the Jerusalem Post.

In the second week following the attacks, intensive strikes on the Gaza Strip were intended to weaken Hamas before an intervention on the ground. If “bombing can set the stage for an invasion”they cannot eliminate “ the risk of significant human losses” for the Israeli army, judges Jerusalem Post. The government “only postpones the inevitable, lowers troop morale and reduces the small window during which the world lets Israel fight Hamas in Gaza“, concludes the daily, while calls for a ceasefire are becoming more numerous in light of the heavy toll of airstrikes among Palestinian civilians, particularly children.

Because Israel’s allies fear the conflagration of the region

Since the start of the Israeli response on Gaza, violence has pitted Lebanese Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas and Iran, and the Israeli army on the border between Israel and Lebanon. Enough to make the international community fear that an Israeli ground intervention would lead to an escalation on this other front. For Michael Young, analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center, the Lebanese movement wants “keep enough Israeli troops away from Gaza”, he explained to AFP. But it could also aim “to arouse fear of a regional conflagration, which would lead to pressure within the UN, and perhaps even the United States, to call for a cease-fire.”

According to Wall Street Journal , American officials in any case recommended to Israel on Monday not to rush its land operation. The reason: to give Washington time to prepare. The United States announced on Sunday the strengthening of its military presence in the region, and warned Iran and allied armed organizations against any widening of the conflict. The next day, a group called “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” claimed responsibility for drone attacks against US forces deployed in Syria. Claims communicated via Telegram channels affiliated with Shiite factions loyal to Iran.

For its part, Iran warned that the situation risked becoming “uncontrollable” in the Middle East, transformed into a “powder keg”. “If Iran wants to enter the conflict, it will probably do so through Hezbollah,” believes former officer Guillaume Ancel, who describes on franceinfo the workings of a conflagration scenario, recalling that “The Americans would intervene to prevent Hezbollah from threatening the State of Israel.”