why the government has very little chance of being overthrown by a motion of no confidence

Thirty Republican deputies would have to decide to vote in favor of a motion of censure. For the moment, it would be less than ten to consider it. According to the count of franceinfo, it therefore lacks at least twenty votes to bring down Elisabeth Borne.

The deputies will start to do the accounts again. The independent group Liot (Freedoms, independents, overseas and territories) announced, Friday, March 17, the tabling in the National Assembly of a motion “transpartisan” of censorship of the government, co-signed with elected officials from Nupes, in response to the triggering of 49.3 to have the pension reform adopted without a vote.

>> Follow the latest information on the pension reform

“The vote on this motion will make it possible to emerge from the top of a deep political crisis”, believes Bertrand Pancher, the leader of the Liot group. But does this motion really have a chance of succeeding? According to the latest franceinfo count, between 20 and 30 votes would be missing to reach the majority of 287 votes (out of 573 deputies since there are currently four vacant seats) necessary to overthrow the government.

The 149 deputies of the Nupes should, except surprise, vote unanimously the censure of the government. Just like the 88 deputies of the National Rally. The RN group has tabled its own motion, but it may be less successful. Jordan Bardella’s party has therefore announced that it will vote for the motions of the other groups.

“I do not forbid myself anything”

In the other groups, precisely, there is a risk of missing votes, especially in the Republican group, which has 61 deputies. “We will not vote on any motion of censure. We do not want to add chaos to chaos”, assured the president of the party, Eric Ciotti, at the end of the meeting of the LR group. During this exchange, they are despite everything twelve deputies to have expressed themselves in favor of a motion of censure and 31 against. Some, like Maxime Minot, Pierre Cordier, Fabien di Filippo or Maxime Minot, are therefore always ready to vote for censorship.

“The Prime Minister was very clumsy to say that the motion of censure, ‘it will be the vote of those for or against the reform’. What a mistake again!” believes Pierre Cordier. “I do not forbid myself anything, I am ready to vote for it”also says Maxime Minot. “I will vote on the motions of censure that will be submitted to us within 48 hours, wherever they come from”also announces Fabien di Filippo on Facebook.

“It is the only tool at our disposal to sanction what I consider to be a fault of the executive which weakens our country and the recovery work that we should carry out.”

Fabien di Filippo, deputy LR

on Facebook

But the number of “slingers” within the Republicans would be quite low at present. While it would take about thirty right-wing deputies to overthrow the government of Elisabeth Borne, they would be much less ready to cross the Rubicon. Some sources mention a dozen elected officials, others even less. “I would say between 5 and 7”estimates a source internal to the group. “Around eight, roughly”predicts MP Julien Dive, close to Aurélien Pradié. “We voted in a group meeting and the opposition was largely in the majority. You must therefore know how to comply with the group’s choice or draw your own personal consequences from it.”

“And then, in the Fifth Republic, a motion means alternating project. What is this project with a ‘gloubiboulga’ or a ‘fourzitou’?”

Julien Dive, deputy LR

at franceinfo

Some assure that things can still move in the weekend. Especially since some parliamentarians are still hesitating, like MP Hubert Brigand, who voted blank during the group meeting: “I’m still thinking, we have to wait to see more clearly.”

“Some are still hesitant”

Within the Liot group, he could also miss a few voices. Of the 20 deputies of this heterogeneous gathering, which goes from the center-right to the center-left, only fifteen signed the cross-partisan censure motion tabled by the group. “But it can still evolve, some are still hesitant and have asked to think about it”explains Charles de Courson, who coordinated the efforts for the filing of this motion.

Regarding the five non-registered deputies, there will also be a lack of votes. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan assures franceinfo that he will vote for the motions of censure. There should also be no surprise on the side of Adrien Quatennens, still temporarily excluded from the group of La France insoumise. The deputy of Vendée Véronique Besse, ex-insert of the Movement for France of Philippe de Villiers, affirms not to have “not decided yet”.

“But a lot of people in the constituency are urging me to vote for it.”

Véronique Besse, non-attached MP

at franceinfo

On the other hand, Emmanuelle Ménard, formerly close to the RN, explains to franceinfo that she will not vote for Liot’s motion, in particular because of the attitude of the LFI group in the Assembly: “It would only add chaos to this mess. On the other hand, I invite Emmanuel Macron to carry out a reshuffle quickly.” Former socialist David Habib does not want to vote on the text either: “I have always said that I will not vote for the motion. If you censure this government, you provoke legislative elections and you end up with Marine Le Pen in power.”


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