Why the far-right AfD party can achieve historic results in the east of the country

The far-right party is credited with 30% of the vote in Sunday’s elections for the Thuringian state parliament. Its victory would be a first in the country’s history.

Olaf Scholz has had a better summer. The German chancellor risks a disappointment in the regional elections in the east of the country on Sunday, September 1, if the polls are not wrong. The The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) is even predicted to win in the Thuringia region, with 30% of voting intentions, according to German channel N-TV., almost 10 points more than the conservative CDU, the main opposition party. In Saxony, the two parties are neck and neck.

After a relative surge in the European elections on June 9, the AfD appears to be in a strong position, buoyed by current events that are conducive to its favorite themes. The party is well anchored in these regions of the former communist GDR, where it has achieved its best scores since its creation in 2013. “Several factors explain this trend: since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the East has been suffering from economic problems, less investment, less industry, more unemployment and a strong distrust of politicians.”explains Sophie Pornschlegel, research director at the Jacques Delors Europe think tank in Brussels (Belgium), to franceinfo.

The AfD is thus riding on the discontent of a section of public opinion, fueled by inflation following the war in Ukraine, and the ecological transition. Immigration is also a regular target of the party, whose plans for “remigration” had caused a scandal in February. “They found the perfect scapegoat, in places where there are few immigrants, but where anti-immigration sentiment is very strong.”notes Sophie Pornschlegel.

Far-right leaders have also capitalized on the deadly stabbing attack in Solingen, in which the suspect is a Syrian refugee. The attack, which had caused three deaths on August 23, “will inevitably have an influence on the elections”the conservative daily stressed Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “The party very frequently exploits news items”confirms Sophie Pornschlegel.

Even if it wins in Thuringia, which would be a first for a regional election, the AfD is unlikely to take control of the regional parliaments, because the other parties rule out any collaboration with it. The small region is home to the most radical wing of the far-right party, with its local leader Björn Höcke.

TTraditionally weak in these regions, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to decline further, to around 6%. Its two allies in the coalition that governs Germany, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), are almost insignificant there. The ruling coalition must, in addition, face a new force to its left.

A party recently created by the popular far-left figure Sahra Wagenknecht, who seceded from the radical left Die Linke, is attracting part of the electorate in the East. Her BSW party, anti-immigration and conservative in morals, is hammering home its rejection of arms deliveries to Ukraine and “campaigned on the theme of peace with Russia”specifies Sophie Pornschlegel. She is credited with between 15 and 20% of the votes, after having already obtained 6% for her first participation in the European elections.

The formation of a new government in these two regions therefore seems to be very complicated, particularly because “It is possible that the BSW will become a [acteur] important”Marianne Kneuer, professor of political science at the Technical University of Dresden, told AFP. A headache for the conservatives of the CDU, who would find themselves having to negotiate with a Eurosceptic radical left party, a team “almost impossible to implement”exclaims Sophie Pornschlegel.

Furthermore, these elections are shaping up to be a new warning for the unpopular ruling coalition, a year before the next federal elections, scheduled for September 2025. The CDU is expected to win with 31% according to the poll aggregator Politicowhile the AfD is at 18% and the Social Democrats are at 15%. “This is clearly not positive for the ruling parties, but we must also see that regional politics is very different from national politics. There is still a year to go before the elections.”delay Sophie Pornschlegel.

But if the “The game is far from over”there “AfD progress” has a strong impact “on the shift to the right of political debate, by imposing its themes” campaign, the specialist points out. In return, “This forces parties, such as the Social Democrats and the Greens, to adopt tougher positions on immigration, which validates and favours the AfD”she adds.