“He had to go to the front line”, notes the political scientist Stéphane Rozès. Visiting his hometown of Amiens (Somme), Monday, November 22, Emmanuel Macron was forced to react to the situation in Guadeloupe which he described as “very explosive”. The island has been shaken for several days by urban violence against a background of protest against the health pass and the vaccination obligation of caregivers. Beyond these claims, protesters also express latent distrust of the state and social distress. The President of the Republic has also recognized himself that the situation in Guadeloupe is “linked to a local context, to the tensions that we know, which are historical, and also to certain interests which seek a little to use this context and the anxiety”.
Faced with this “extreme violence”, in the words of the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, on Tuesday on France Inter, police reinforcements (GIGN and Raid) were sent on site to contain the rioters. The last two nights appear to have been less hectic than the previous ones, although police officers were targeted by live ammunition. “Yes, the situation is cause for concern as the urban violence is extremely serious. We strongly condemn it”, explains the entourage of the Minister of Overseas, Sébastien Lecornu. “We take this very seriously.”
In the midst of the presidential pre-campaign, the risk is great for the majority. “This poses a double problem for the executive, Stéphane Rozès analysis. For the government, it is important not to give credence to the idea that these overseas territories would be seceding from republican standards. Second, these events should not anchor the idea that Emmanuel Macron has an inclination, in his way of doing things, to divide the country. ” However, notes the political scientist, the executive has already made several errors in this file.
“There was a problem of not anticipating these subjects, as had been the case with the ‘yellow vests’. And then there was a delay in terms of reaction, so that the security responses are in the foreground and not the political responses. “
Stéphane Rozès, political scientistto franceinfo
The priority is indeed to restore order as quickly as possible. If the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, announced on Monday the creation of a “dialogue instance” to support the health professions in Guadeloupe towards vaccination, it remains that the end of the violence, as quickly as possible, is in everyone’s mind. “What we would be blamed for is if the republican order was not respected. It must be maintained”, insists a ministerial adviser. Is he currently? “Everything is done to make it happen”, he kicks in touch. “There are in this case two things on which we must be uncompromising: the restoration of public order and equality in health matters”, considers for his part the LREM deputy Sacha Houlié.
The executive is walking a tightrope. The worst scenario would be to see the violence continue in Guadeloupe and reach other territories in the Antilles. Martinique thus faces, since Monday, a general strike launched at the call of twenty unions who are also protesting against the vaccination obligation of caregivers. If the situation is much less explosive than in Guadeloupe, the mobilization has grown on this second day of mobilization. “Each territory of the Antilles is sensitive. On the other hand, we do not believe in the oil stain. It is not because Guadeloupe is set ablaze that Martinique will follow”, assures a ministerial adviser. Police and firefighters were however the target of gunfire on the night of Monday to Tuesday in Fort-de-France, without causing injuries, according to civil security.
While it is impossible to predict what will happen next, it is clear that the situation in Guadeloupe has already become a campaign issue. The opposition found there an angle of attack against Emmanuel Macron. “The government still has the same method, which consists in letting a situation, such as that of ‘yellow vests’, such as pensions, rot, and waiting for the violence that this generates to discredit the demands”, has, for example, affirmed Marine Le Pen on France Inter, Tuesday. “We should have anticipated this need for dialogue and understanding”, for his part regretted Michel Barnier, candidate for the LR nomination, on franceinfo. “The result of Macron’s policy, we have it in front of us”, for his part denounced in Rennes the leader of La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
“If they provide unconditional support to the movement, it will be at the cost of republican order or the protection of populations against the virus”, tackle Sacha Houlié. It remains that “the security tour taken in Guadeloupe”, represented “a danger for President-candidate Macron, according to Stéphane Rozès. Especially if the future LR candidate appears capable of both bringing the French together and embodying order. “
Behind the crisis in Guadeloupe, there is the specter – again and again – of ‘yellow vests’. What to worry about in the corridors of power?
“Everything is a danger five months before the elections, it is obvious.”
Sereine Mauborgne, LREM deputyto franceinfo
“We will remain in a very political period where everything will be used against Macron”, relativizes a source close to power. “We are focused on crisis management, we must try to uncap these potential crisis subjects upstream.” In reality, the dangerousness of the Guadeloupe situation for the executive can be summed up in one word: its duration. “If it’s a few days, it’ll be quickly forgotten. If it’s several weeks, it’s more annoying”, we summarize in the aisles of power.