Bad polls follow one another for the list carried by Valérie Hayer, largely behind Jordan Bardella and now closely followed by Raphaël Glucksmann. Tuesday, the macronie meets in Paris for a big meeting, with the hope of launching a new dynamic.
It’s a scene that Victor Albrecht, Renaissance president of Yonne, has already experienced several times. In the markets of his department, when he hands onlookers a leaflet for Valérie Hayer, the head of the presidential party’s list in the European elections, the reaction is often the same: “The feedback on Valérie is positive. It’s: ‘We don’t know her, but she seems serious’”. And then, inevitably, the leaflet is turned around to reveal the face of Emmanuel Macron. “Seeing Macron’s photo, some people complain. We must then redouble our efforts to convince, by praising our record.”
Unknown to the general public, the president of the Renew group in the European Parliament, who is organizing, alongside the government, a major meeting in Paris on Tuesday May 7, finds herself carrying seven years of Macronism on her shoulders. Conquering new voters is no longer on the agenda, the battle now boiling down to convincing the head of state’s electorate to go to the polling stations on June 9.
Gold, “the mobilization of the Macronist base is weaknotes Mathieu Gallard, director of studies for the Ipsos institute. Emmanuel Macron’s voters in the first round of the 2022 presidential election are among those who least intend to travel.” A situation that the pundits in the presidential camp have well in mind. “We feel that lifelong voters will perhaps go to the Basque Country or Deauville on election day”sighs one of them, fearing a desertion of Macronist voters.
An anti-RN strategy that does not take
In fact, currently, the gap between the majority and the extreme right has never been so large in the polls. The fourth wave of the Ipsos institute barometer for the month of April confirms “a slight settling” by Valérie Hayer but the campaign had already started for her “at a low level”, recalls Mathieu Gallard. The Renaissance candidate, who late revealed her list and program, is credited with 17% of voting intentions, compared to 32% for Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally list.
Among the supporters of the Head of State, no one seriously believes in a reversal of this trend in a month. In everyone’s minds, first place is now acquired by the RN. The “feat” of 2019, where the presidential camp finished a small point behind the far right (23% against 22) even seems out of reach. “The RN walks on water. Bardella is not good and multiplies the approximations but that does not hold in public opinion, regrets a close friend of Edouard Philippe. For fifty years, people rejected the far right. Today, these people are still angry, but no longer against the RN. There is a form of swing of the pendulum.”
The majority does not know very well how to attack Marine Le Pen’s camp. The anti-RN strategy, which strongly marked the launch of Valérie Hayer’s campaign in Lille on March 9, seems to have been abandoned. “People don’t understand that there is special treatment for the RN. Demonization no longer works”assures a leader of the majority.
Will Attal launch into battle?
Consequence: the Macronists are looking for a loophole. “The only hook they found is on Ukraine and Russia, that allows them to attack the RN on the camp of patriotism and sovereignty”, observes communicator Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. But this remains insufficient, as a majority executive at France Télévisions points out more generally: “To counter Jordan Bardella, we must continue to denounce his deceptions and his contradictions. But it’s true that nothing seems to stick.”
There was one card that the majority thought they were betting on: Gabriel Attal. The appointment of the popular and youngest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic had even been sold as “the anti-Bardella weapon”. “He created a lot of hope at the beginning, and then it doesn’t change anything at all. He’s not getting involved in this campaign,” castigates, bitterly, a Youth executive with Macron (JAM). “It’s true that some suspect him of caring about his image and not wanting to damage it too much”slips the framework of the majority.
A judged strategy “loser”by a member of the Renaissance executive board. “In the end, he will still be judged on the result, we will all be responsible. He is capable of moving the lines, we need him.” But the head of government intends to accelerate. “He wants to be an active player in the campaign”, reports one of his relatives. Initially opposed to the idea of debating with Jordan Bardella, Gabriel Attal finally leaked his desire for a “democratic confrontation” with the champion of the RN.
“National politics does not help us”
The other head of the executive has been toying with the idea of going into the campaign for a while. Emmanuel Macron even wanted, according to the admission of this same majority executive, to participate in the Lille meeting, before finally giving up. In 2019, the President of the Republic had not set foot in this type of gathering, but he had written a long letter to the French. Rumors of his participation this time in a campaign rally agitate the macronie. Some are opposed to it. “He doesn’t have to be there. I’m very old France, the president is above the parties”, asserts an official from the presidential camp. While others are ardently campaigning for. “It’s fundamental that he invests, assures a minister. VSIt doesn’t shock me that he’s on stage for a meeting.” Activists are also impatiently waiting to see Emmanuel Macron enter the arena.
“He is the president who can bring back our voters, he is exceptional in the campaign. This is supposed to be his last national campaign, we want to enjoy it with him.”
Victor Albrecht, Renaissance president of Yonneat franceinfo
For the moment, the Head of State’s involvement is limited to his speech on Europe at the Sorbonne on April 25. A long intervention which was not sold as a campaign speech by the presidential camp but which was indeed counted by Arcom as such. And the effects of which are not really tangible. “The president entered the campaign with this speech but he did not create any momentum, it is a failure”judges communicator Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet.
The national context and government announcements marked by the deterioration of public finances are also held responsible for the ambient gloom. “National policy does not help us, between the stories of debt and unemployment insurance”assures a JAM executive, also faced with a disaffection of young people for the Head of State. “We are not going to kid ourselves, the national debate is not likely to over-mobilize our electorate who do not want to please usalso sighs a parliamentarian from the majority. Since 2022, we haven’t done very popular things.” Pension reform and the immigration law, in particular, have left their mark.
Every Monday, the party leadership receives feedback from the whole of France about the weekend’s leaflets. “Where it is the hardest is in the very LFI and RN constituencies, but also some CSP+ where our voters have focused on questions of immigration or pensions for example”, further explains the framework of the majority. “Macronism is based on a strong social democratic base. However, many no longer feel in phase”notes another official from the presidential camp. “It’s hard to wear the colors of the majority at the moment,” still recognizes a member of the campaign team.
The shadow of Raphaël Glucksmann
In addition to seeing Jordan Bardella definitively take off, the Macronists are alarmed to see Raphaël Glucksmann getting dangerously close to their candidate and recovering part of this disappointed Macronist electorate. The head of the PS-Place publique list is only three points behind Valérie Hayer in the latest Ipsos barometer. “Among Emmanuel Macron voters in the first round of 2022 who intend to vote, 17% will vote Raphaël Glucksmann”explains Mathieu Gallard.
As with Jordan Bardella, the macronie also does not know very well how to break the Glucksmann dynamic. “It’s complicated to manage, recognizes a member of the government. He was smart in standing out from the Nupes and giving himself a very acceptable image.” Above all, we continue from the same source, “the biggest problem is that we said he was almost like us, that’s the only criticism we could make of Valérie.”
In an interview with Figaro on February 29, which aimed to launch her campaign, the MEP declared: “With Raphaël Glucksmann, we vote 90% the same way in the European Parliament. He should be with us, and he knows it.” “An important bullshit”, also grumbled a close friend of Edouard Philippe who, without believing in a crossing of curves, speaks of “slap” if such a scenario occurs. “It becomes a possibility, even if it is not a given”assures pollster Mathieu Gallard.
“The crossing of curves [avec le candidat socialiste], this would be the death certificate of the macronie. The government would be in a big political problem.”
Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, communicatorat franceinfo
In the presidential camp, many cling to this mantra: polls do not make an election. In particular the European election, where the interest of the French will crystallize late.