A sudden resurgence of tension. North Korea launched at least 23 ballistic missiles on Wednesday (November 2). One of these devices fell near the territorial waters of South Korea, which denounced “a territorial invasion” and responded with three missile launches at sea. A new stage in the war escalation between the two countries. Such threatening actions had not been observed since 2010. The period of relaxation seems to be over.
Because the shots have rarely been so numerous and close to South Korea
“Kim Jong-un has fired more missiles in one day than his father, Kim Jong-il, in 15 years”, observes Antoine Bondaz, research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research. North Korean ballistic attacks have increased in recent months. On Wednesday, for the first time in nearly seventy years and the end of the Korean War, Pyongyang fired a missile that crossed the “Northern Limit Line” (NLL), which extends the demarcation line out to sea. inter-Korean on both sides of the peninsula. He dived in waters just 57 km east of the South Korean coast.
North Korea also fired about 100 artillery rounds, according to Seoul, towards the maritime “buffer zone” north of the demarcation line, which constitutes the maritime border between the two countries. These “buffer zones”, established in 2018 to prevent any accidental confrontation, extend over a width of 5 km on either side of the demarcation line. Seoul and Pyongyang had pledged not to carry out large-scale military maneuvers there and not to practice any artillery fire with live ammunition.
Because the alliance between Seoul and Washington upsets Pyongyang
With the presence of Donald Trump in the White House, there was a “window of opportunity for negotiations and the idea that the United States and South Korea would be ready to make concessions”, believes Antoine Bondaz. But the departure of the billionaire, who had met Kim Jong-un three times, added to the change of president in South Korea, changed the situation. “Yoon Suk-yeol is on a harder line than his predecessor Moon Jae-in, notes Antoine Bondaz. He and Joe Biden want to strengthen the alliance between Washington and Seoul.”
The two countries are currently conducting the largest joint air exercise in their history, dubbed “Vigilant Storm”, involving hundreds of planes from both armies. These maneuvers arouse the anger of Pyongyang, which considers them to be general rehearsals for an invasion of its territory. “If the United States and South Korea try to use their armed forces [contre la République populaire démocratique de Corée] without fear, the special means of the armed forces of the DPRK will carry out their strategic mission without delay”said Pak Jong Chon, field marshal and secretary of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party, according to state news agency KCNA.
Because another North Korean nuclear test is possible
Wednesday’s firings come after another long series, in September and October, described as tactical nuclear exercises by Pyongyang. Analysts say the ballistic blast that failed a few tens of kilometers east of mainland South Korea is one of the most “aggressive and threatening” for several years. These new firings could well lead to a new North Korean nuclear test, the seventh, five years after the last which took place on September 3, 2017.
“These are pre-celebration events ahead of their upcoming nuclear test”told AFP Ahn Chan-il, a specialist in North Korea. “Further testing, of course, means they’re fine-tuning the preparation and building of their arsenal. So we’re following that very closely.”confirms Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). “We hope that doesn’t happen, but unfortunately the indications point the other way.”
Because negotiations with North Korea are deadlocked
Nuclear-weapon negotiations and diplomatic relations between Pyongyang and Washington have bogged down since 2019, over sanctions relief and what the North would be willing to give up in return. The coming to power of Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol did not help matters.
“Currently there is no more trade, no more cooperation, no more dialogue with North Korea.”
Antoine Bondaz, research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Researchat franceinfo
“Kim Jong-un continues his ballistic tests to appear in a position of strength when the negotiations reopen”, adds the specialist. We therefore enter a “vicious circle”he argues, since each new North Korean shot leads to a South Korean response.
The de-escalation is not for now since Yoon Suk-yeol described the shot that fell a few tens of kilometers from the South Korean coast as“territorial invasion”. “It gives the impression of an abuse of language which obliges him to respond militarily, analyzes Antoine Bondaz. He puts himself in a bind.”
Because the war in Ukraine is a diversion
These North Korean firings would have taken place if not for the situation in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the conflict between Moscow and kyiv works in favor of Kim Jong-un. “It creates opportunitiesanalyzes Antoine Bondaz, it is all the easier to do so with this conflict which diverts attention and prevents international coordination”. An example of this disunity between the members of the UN Security Council, in May 2022, Russia and China, for the first time since 2006, vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning North Korean ballistic tests.