“It’s 25-cushion billiards…” Philippe Gosselin may have been a member of parliament for 17 years, but he jokingly refers to “crystal balls, coffee grounds and smoke signals sent or not”. Like his 576 fellow deputies, the elected member of the Republicans of La Manche will participate, on Thursday July 18 at 3 p.m., in the election of the president of the National Assembly, a mandatory step after the early legislative elections. A vote more uncertain than ever since the hemicycle has been divided into several blocs, without an absolute majority.
The deputies will vote by secret ballot. In the first and second rounds, an absolute majority of the votes cast is required to be elected president of the Assembly, but a relative majority is sufficient in the third round. The fourth person in the state, after the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister and the President of the Senate, the person who sits on the perch presides over the most important sessions, such as questions to the government, and heads the bureau of the Assembly, whose members will be elected on Friday.
The election to the position previously held by Yaël Braun-Pivet, who is running again, is all the more crucial this year, as no figure has emerged as Prime Minister. On the left, the right and in the presidential camp, maneuvers are going well in the hope of determining the political direction of a future government. Franceinfo explains the issues at stake.
Because it will allow us to better situate the centre of gravity of the National Assembly
In a political landscape shaken by the dissolution and early legislative elections, the election for the presidency of the Assembly should be a first indicator of the new balance of power. A sign of the importance of the vote: Emmanuel Macron finally accepted the resignation of Gabriel Attal and his government on Tuesday, to allow the 17 outgoing ministers elected as deputies to vote on Thursday (under a contested legal interpretation), and to participate in the distribution of other important posts on Friday and Saturday. The presidential party, whose group has been reduced to around a hundred deputies, cannot afford to lose votes.
Especially since the tenant of the Elysée wants to make this vote a meeting to clarify the political situation. On July 10, in a letter published in the regional press, he considered that the legislative elections had not had a clear winner, not even the New Popular Front, and argued for “give the political forces some time to build these compromises with serenity and respect for everyone” before appointing a Prime Minister. “This election will be one of the episodes that the president refers to when he says that we must let things happen.”explains François Patriat, head of the Renaissance senators.
In the first round, each political group should vote for its candidate, but the second and third rounds will reveal who manages to unite beyond their own camp. “Even if the vote is by secret ballot, there will be voting instructions by group”explains Jean Garrigues, former president of the Committee for Parliamentary and Political History. But there could be dissent or surprises, warns the historian. With 143 seats, the National Rally and its allies could swing the vote.
“In the third round, a relative majority will emerge. This will be an indicator of a configuration of a government solution, or of a coalition capable of resisting a motion of censure.”
Jean Garrigues, historian and specialist in parliamentary lifeto franceinfo
The vote could give an advantage to one political colour, but also draw a more transpartisan path. Centrist Charles Courson, from the small Liot group, is a candidate. “He is a personality who embodies the continuity of a parliamentary system. If he wins, it could give rise to ideas government away from partisan ambitions, rather technical“analyzes Jean Garrigues.
“This is the first post-legislative test”believes LR MP Philippe Gosselin. “It is one thing for the executive to remain in suspense, but we cannot hamper the functioning of the Assembly. In the absence of a government that can be mobilized within a short period of time, we will have a Parliament that organizes itself to function.”
Because it might be the beginning of cooperation between the Macronists and the right.
With the exception of a handful of elected officials from the left wing, the presidential camp hopes that this election will help it move closer to the right. “If there is no agreement between us and Les Républicains, it will be an NFP [Nouveau Front populaire] at the perch”calculates a pillar of Renaissance. A perspective which according to him favors discussions between La Droite républicaine, the new name of the LR group, and Emmanuel Macron’s troops to share out key positions.
“This could be the beginning of a thaw between the blocs, and of a constructive dialogue to form a government, or at least a legislative pact, with the right.”
A member of the presidential partyto franceinfo
The presidential bloc (Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons), whose number of seats fell to 163 on July 7, needs additional votes if it wants to continue to govern. An agreement with the right would allow it to significantly exceed the threshold of 200, still very far from an absolute majority (289), but enough to claim the upper hand over the 180 elected members of the NFP. The only candidate from the presidential party, the outgoing president Yaël Braun-Pivet, is running again, but she is far from being unanimous in her ranks. Horizons, Edouard Philippe’s party, is also running a candidate, Naïma Moutchou, who was vice-president of the Assembly before the dissolution. Some executives are considering supporting an LR for the perch in the second round, in exchange for other strategic positions within the bureau of the Assembly.
Himself a member of the right until 2017, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin is pushing for a rapprochement between his old and new political families, while resigning Prime Minister Gabriel Attal wants “working with people from the Republican right”but also “from the social democratic left”.
Because it is a possible way out of the deadlock on the left and a step towards Matignon
On the left, the NFP hopes to thwart the plans of the presidential camp to gain access to the presidency of the Assembly. Failing to agree on a name for a potential Prime Minister, the four left-wing groups have agreed on the principle of a single candidate, that of the communist André Chassaigne. “Maybe we should have started with thatbelieves Eric Coquerel, LFI deputy for Seine-Saint-Denis. The emergency is the perch, because Emmanuel Macron, even if I regret it, will determine the color of the future government based on the result of this election.”
“Our goal is to win, because if we obtain the presidency of the Assembly, I do not see how Emmanuel Macron will be able to avoid appointing a Prime Minister from the NFP.”
Eric Coquerel, LFI MP for Seine-Saint-Denisto franceinfo
The matter is far from being settled for the left, despite its 180 seats, because the presidential party group, Ensemble pour la République, has decreed that it will do everything to avoid handing over any key positions to the RN, but also to LFI. “My fear is that there will be an agreement between Renaissance, the MoDem, the UDI and LR”said a Socialist Party official. “If there is no alliance, we pass. If not, it will be someone else.”
A scenario that the rebel Eric Coquerel tries to minimize: “If we fail, we must not abandon the objective of Matignon, but it will only strengthen Emmanuel Macron in his objective of having a technical government. If it turns out, we will not need to find a Prime Minister from the NFP right away, we may have to wait until the autumn.” This election will therefore be a first test for the fragile union of the left, while the tone continues to rise between LFI and the socialists.
Because the groups will have to decide whether to place themselves in opposition
The election of the presidency will also allow to define the new border between a majority, admittedly relative, and oppositions. The groups can choose to declare their membership in the opposition on Thursday, or register as minority groups, that is to say neither in the majority nor in the opposition. This classification comes into play in the allocation of certain strategic positions. The position of first vice-president of the Assembly is reserved for the opposition, as is the presidency of the finance committee.
These choices and the election to the perch will not necessarily determine the colour of the future government, and it is quite possible that the presidency of the Assembly and the post of Prime Minister will go to different parties. “Not everything will be clarified, but we will be able to eliminate some hypotheses, and above all, we will have an indication of the atmosphere to come in the Assembly, of the tensions that could exist”says Philippe Gosselin. “If the neither-nor of Renaissance [ni RN ni LFI à des postes clés] is applied, it will dig up the hatchet”believes the LR elected official.