Russia claimed the capture of the city. Ukraine denied. For the Kiev troops, continuing the fighting in this devastated city has a strategic interest in view of the counter-offensive announced for a long time.
A field of ruins that no one intends to let go. Scene of the longest and deadliest battle since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Bakhmout was once again the object of a communication war on Saturday 20 and Sunday 21 May. Moscow first claimed control of this symbolic city, which kyiv immediately denied.
If confirmed, the capture of the mining city in eastern Ukraine by the Russian army and the paramilitary group Wagner would allow Moscow to post a victory, after humiliating setbacks in Kharkiv and Kherson in particular. However, it would intervene before a counter-offensive that kyiv has been preparing for months. The boss of the Wagner group, Evgeni Prigozhin, “even if you planted a Russian flag there this weekendthe battle of Bakhmout is clearly not over”assures franceinfo General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the review National Defense. “On the contrary, the city will continue to play a role in the coming weeks.” Franceinfo explains why.
Weaken the enemy before the counteroffensive
The Ukrainian army still surrounds part of the city and has already initiated counter-attacks in the city and its surroundings. Ukrainian forces have resumed again in recent dayss “a few square kilometers of territory on the heights, in the suburbs to the north and south of this city of Bakhmout”, exposes Maryse Burgot, the special envoy of France Télévisions. “So they will continue to pound the Russian forces. For the Ukrainians, now is not the time to admit defeat at all.” This is also what the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister, Ganna Maliar, said on Monday, assuring that the Ukrainian troops engaged in Bakhmout “[contrôlaient] certain buildings, adding on Telegram that “the battle on the flanks, north and south, [poursuivait]“.
Continuing to fight in Bakhmout also allows the Ukrainian army to exhaust the Russian forces for the famous counter-offensive. “By continuing the fighting, the Ukrainian forces can continue to inflict maximum damage on the enemy. In short, weaken the Russians before the counter-offensive, and buy time to be ready on D-Day”, summarizes General Jérôme Pellistrandi. If confirmed, the Russian victory in the city would thus take place at a very high cost for Moscow. At the beginning of May, the spokesman for the National Security Council of the White House assured the Reuters agency (article in English) that more than 100,000 Russian fighters had been killed or wounded since December, mainly in Bakhmout.
Protect Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
The topography of the sector is also to kyiv’s advantage, emphasizes General Jérôme Pellistrandi. “Around Bakhmout are fieldsnotes the military expert. It is an open space, more conducive to maneuver for kyiv and more laborious to defend for Moscow. So there could be attempts at recovery.”
This strategy of encirclement also allows kyiv to protect its rear, analyzes the specialist in defense issues. “If the Ukrainians decided to withdraw completely from Bakhmut, then Moscow would have a clear field to make further progress. Let’s not forget that behind, we would quickly reach the cities of Sloviansk and especially Kramatorsk. This city is only about fifty kilometers from Bakhmout and has 150,000 inhabitants. This is the heart of Donbass.”
Contain Russian troops
Because the tactical interest of the maneuvers in progress goes well beyond Bakhmout, according to the military expert. “By fixing the Russian soldiers who are currently in the city, kyiv prevents Moscow from deploying them to another place in the territory, analyzes the military expert. While in Bakhmout they are not used elsewhere. And so they are not where kyiv imagines launching its counter-offensive.” Asked about BFMTV, Xavier Tytelman, former military aviator and editor-in-chief of the magazine’s digital edition Air and Cosmosabounds. “It would be very surprising if the Ukrainians launched the counter-offensive on the side of Bakhmout”, estimated the expert, for whomhe capture of Bakhmout would not constitute a turning point in the conflict.
For Moscow, the conquest of the city does not seem to be likely to change the situation anyway. “I really don’t see how they could be able to relaunch a powerful offensive from Bakhmout”, analysis General Jerome Pellistrandi. Months of fighting have left the city bloodless. “There is no electricity, no water, there is nothing left. Nine out of ten houses are destroyed”describes Arkadijs Goncarovs, a humanitarian, joined by franceinfo. “There are still civilians hiding in basements. People with disabilities, people who don’t have money to leave. There are also people who were waiting for the Russian army.”
Beyond the symbol that the capture of a city can represent, Russia wanted to open the road towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the two cities of Donbass which always escape it. “Irussia says it has liberated a city. No, no, they have above all freed a field of ruins, a city emptied of its inhabitants”adds Jérôme Pellistrandi. Before the war, the industrial city was home to 70,000 inhabitants. By March, it was down to just 4,000, trapped in the midst of extremely heavy fighting. “Moscow shows footage of Russian forces clearing streets. But the city is unusable”concludes the expert.