why “it is essential to stay the course” and quickly increase the proportion of vehicles in circulation

Every Saturday we decipher climate issues with François Gemenne, professor at HEC, president of the Scientific Council of the Foundation for Nature and Man and member of the IPCC.

The electric car occupied a fairly important place in the campaign for the European elections. With, from some, a long list of criticisms.

François Gemenne: We have the impression, in fact, that the electric car manages to crystallize on itself all the controversies and reproaches that are formulated against the climate transition. For some, it is too expensive and too elitist, for others it is too heavy on metals and therefore not green enough… And then there are the contradictory signals sent by governments, particularly on purchasing aid. . This therefore results in great confusion for the public, which also results in a decline in sales of electric cars in France – and in Europe, we are seeing a drop in sales, of 11% over one year.

The electric car is infinitely more polluting than walking, it’s undeniable, everyone agrees on that. But it is also much less polluting than a thermal car. So, it remains a car: that means tons of steel to transport a few dozen kilos of human flesh. But the vast majority of our trips, in France as in Europe, are still made by car. We obviously need to encourage as much modal shift as possible, towards walking, cycling or the train, we obviously need to develop public transport much more, we need to fight against solo driving and put as many passengers as possible in cars, in particular thanks to carpooling, but we also need to… decarbonize the car.

To date, the electric car remains the only technical solution available on a large scale to massively decarbonize individual transport. Even counting the carbon footprint of its manufacture, and not just its use. The International Energy Agency estimates that on average, worldwide, an electric car will emit 2.5 times less carbon than a thermal car, over its entire life cycle. And if the car is manufactured and driven in France, where electricity is almost completely decarbonized, the Bloomberg agency even estimates that it will emit eight times less carbon than a thermal car over its life cycle.

French manufacturers did not wait for electric cars to relocate their production: since the beginning of the 2000s, French automobile production has fallen by 60%. And in 2023, it is a Chinese manufacturer that you will hear a lot about that has become the leader in the electric vehicle market, ahead of Tesla: it is called BYD, for ‘Build Your Dream’. And it is certain that the Chinese model relies on massive subsidies, lower margins compensated by large volumes, while European manufacturers have done the opposite, by building bigger and bigger cars, and therefore also increasingly expensive, which allowed them to increase their margins.

But a new study, published Monday by the Foundation for Nature and Man and the Mobilités en Transition Institute, shows that this is not inevitable. The study shows that it is perfectly possible to produce small electric vehicles, city cars, in France, under excellent competitive conditions. Today, the best-selling cars in France are cars imported from Eastern Europe or Turkey, and they are city cars. Relocating the production of smaller cars to France is obviously an issue for employment and the French automobile industry, but it is also an issue for ecology, because it makes it possible to make cars electric. more affordable, and significantly reduce their carbon footprint. By breaking down production costs, the study shows that the competitiveness gap with Eastern Europe will be very small, and will not justify the costs of relocation, and that well-designed environmental taxation can largely compensate for the competitiveness differential with China.

“A city car made in France has a total carbon footprint of seven tons of CO2 over its life cycle, compared to 32 tons for an SUV made in China.”

François Gemenne

on franceinfo

There is obviously a certain responsibility on the part of manufacturers regarding relocations. But there are also measures that the State can take, as recommended by the Alliance for the decarbonization of the road: avoid procrastination in the policy of encouraging purchases for individuals, the incentives which are announced then deleted… There is also the need to continue to deploy charging stations, particularly in rural areas, which are less well equipped. Companies must also adopt fleets of electric cars, in order to develop a second-hand market. And public authorities must also encourage the development of a fleet of lighter vehicles: the city cars that I have just spoken about, but also intermediate vehicles, between the bicycle and the car, which can perfectly meet certain uses. In any case, it is essential to stay the course: electric vehicles represent 3% of the 38 million cars in circulation in France, and this proportion absolutely must increase quickly.

German manufacturers are pushing for us to use the review clause planned for 2026 to return to this objective, planned for 2035. This would be a catastrophic signal for the transition, for our dependence on imported oil, and for the French automobile industry. She was slow to turn the corner, but you can’t change the rules of the game along the way – it’s not me who says that: it’s Carlos Tavares, the boss of Stellantis.