Advise US personnel in Ukraine to leave? A “overreaction”, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Affirm that a Russian invasion is possible as early as mid-February ? “Don’t trust doomsday predictions”said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleba on 6 February.
For several months, the United States has constantly pointed the finger at Russia’s military movements near the Ukrainian border and warned of the risk of an invasion. “at any time”. At the risk of being accused of throwing oil on the fire, while the European Union has repeatedly insisted on the need for dialogue with the Kremlin.
Why is the United States so invested in a crisis that is unfolding thousands of miles from its territory? And why do they maintain an even more offensive position than Ukraine or European countries? We explain to you.
So as not to relive the annexation of Crimea
If the United States adopts such an offensive communication strategy, it is partly because the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014 served as a wake-up call. According to Nicole Bacharan, historian and essayist specializing in the United States, “there was a reaction, particularly from Joe Biden and Anthony Blinken [le secrétaire d’Etat américain] who were in the administration of Barack Obama at the time of the annexation of Crimea, who considered that they had done too little and too late to prevent it”.
Hence the decision to move to the next level, in particular through preventive denunciations. The United States, for example, accused the Kremlin of preparing a fake Ukrainian attack on Russian territory, which could be used by the Kremlin to justify a retaliatory attack. “This is the only relatively new element of the American strategy in Ukraine”explains Maud Quessard, lecturer specializing in American foreign policy.
A “intelligent tactic”according to Richard Gowan, an analyst quoted by El País. By claiming to be transparent about Moscow’s plans, “the United States makes it difficult for Russia to disseminate false information about its actions”. Corn “by crying wolf too often, (…) be careful” not to make the american plea “less believable”said Nina Khrushcheva, professor of international relations at the New School in New York, quoted by AFP
To make Joe Biden look stronger
This communication is also motivated by domestic political considerations. “Every action of the Biden administration must also be seen by its effects on American voters.recalls Maud Quessard. We are in an election year.” Hitting the table to deter a Russian attack also limits the risk of the United States being involved.
“The American public is weary of distant wars, and neither the Biden administration nor Democrats in Congress are on an interventionist line.”
Maud Quessard, specialist in American foreign policyat franceinfo
Hence the importance of doing everything to deter the invasion before it even takes place. According to Florent Parmentier, secretary general of Cevipof-Sciences Po interviewed on franceinfo, “Joe Biden must sell his public opinion and his allies a victory that would come through not having a Russian invasion in Ukraine. For that, he must increase the pressure, the tension. The higher it is, the more the The fact of not having a conflict will be experienced as a victory: Joe Biden as a peacemaker against a Russia which fundamentally wanted to do battle with Ukraine.
To make people forget the withdrawal from Afghanistan
According to Nicole Bacharan, the involvement of the United States in this crisis could aim to reassure their European allies, worried after the disaster of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. “I don’t imagine Putin would have advanced his pawns this way if it weren’t for Afghanistan, because nothing has happened recently that would make him think he was threatened by NATO. And on the American side, the reaction is necessarily influenced by their withdrawal from Afghanistan and its consequences.”
“Joe Biden must reassure the most worried Europeans. The Poles, the Baltic States. Nothing would be worse, for these countries, than to see that the Americans are indifferent to the fate of what is happening on their borders.”
Florent Parmentier, general secretary of Cevipof-Sciences Poat franceinfo
At the same time, adopting an intransigent position helps give Joe Biden an image of authority, according to Maud Quessard. “We remember Republicans accusing Barack Obama of weakness. Joe Biden also promised to fight against the feeling of decline in the United States, so he can’t give the impression of caving in to China or Russia.”