Relations between Washington and Manila have continued to improve since the arrival of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos in June 2022, driven by Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region, to the point that President American Joe Biden promised Thursday to defend the Philippines in the event of an attack in the hotly contested South China Sea.
Repeated incidents between Chinese and Filipino ships in recent months near disputed reefs in this 3 million km sea2 raise fears of a broader conflict involving the United States and other allies. This question was at the center of an unprecedented trilateral summit Thursday at the White House with the Philippines and Japan.
Deciphering this situation, in four questions.
Does Washington have an obligation to defend Manila?
The Philippines is at the heart of Washington’s efforts to strengthen regional alliances because of its proximity to the South China Sea and Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory.
Although Manila and Washington have a complex history that has seen their relations evolve up and down in recent years, they are linked by two treaties, one of mutual defense dating from 1951, the other from 2014.
Senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they will invoke the 1951 treaty in the event of an “armed attack” on state ships, aircraft, armed forces and the Philippine Coast Guard, where whether in the South China Sea.
In 2014, a defense cooperation agreement between the two countries gave U.S. troops access to five Philippine military bases. That pact lapsed under former pro-Beijing President Rodrigo Duterte, but it was revived and expanded after Ferdinand Marcos came to power and now includes four additional sites.
“Given the current geopolitical situation […] the message of US commitment to the Philippines is clearer and more consistent,” said Andrea Wong, a researcher at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs in New Zealand.
Why is the South China Sea important?
The South China Sea constitutes the main maritime link between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, giving it enormous commercial and military value.
On its shipping lanes, which connect the Far East to Europe and the Middle East, trillions of dollars of goods pass through each year.
Huge untapped deposits of oil and gas are believed to lie beneath its seabed, although estimates vary widely.
The repeated incidents in recent months between China and the Philippines have reached levels not seen in several years. Many fear that a simple mistake or accident could trigger a military conflict.
What is the dispute about?
For decades, several countries have fought over the South China Sea and its hundreds of reefs and islands.
China and Taiwan claim almost the entire sea, while Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei each have overlapping claims to parts of the sea.
The United States has no territorial claim but regularly conducts patrols there.
“The interest of the US government is freedom of commerce and unhindered trading,” as well as “freedom of navigation and overflight,” says Ms. Wong.
If a large country like China were to control this entire sea, “it is very likely that other countries wishing to pass through it would have to ask permission,” she adds.
Beijing claims it has “historic rights” to the South China Sea, relying mainly on Chinese maps dating from the 1940s. But the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in 2016 that these claims had no basis. legal basis. China ignored this decision.
Where are US-Philippine relations?
During the Duterte years, Manila moved away from Washington, moving closer to Beijing in hopes of securing investment and trade.
Former President Duterte also dismissed the ICJ decision and threatened to scrap the 2014 defense agreement authorizing the presence of American troops on Philippine soil.
His successor Ferdinand Marcos dramatically changed course, publicly opposing Chinese actions in the South China Sea and granting Americans access to more Philippine military bases.
President Joe Biden on Thursday called the U.S. commitment to the security of the Philippines “unwavering,” a term that many U.S. officials have used in their talks with their Philippine counterparts over the past two years.