why is the number of advertisements for houses and apartments for rent plummeting?

“I feel imprisoned.” For ten years, Sophie *, 39, has been sleeping on a mattress installed in the living room of her apartment in Noisy-le-Grand, in the Paris suburbs (Seine-Saint-Denis). Impossible for this single mother to leave the T2 that she occupies with her son. His case for social housing has never progressed and his rental searches stop even before he can visit a two-bedroom apartment, despite 1,600 euros in salary and 400 euros in pension and allowance. “Once, I called an agency and the guy told me very politely that it wouldn’t be possible with my file. He hung up badly and he burst out laughing saying to his colleague: ‘The girl, she thinks she’s going to have a T3!’recalls the commercial secretary. I cried about it.”

Sophie’s case is far from isolated. For several years, the rental market has seized up. Between 2019 and 2023, the supply of properties for rent has been halved, according to a report by the site Bien’ici, which brings together the real estate advertisements of the main French agencies. And the situation has further deteriorated in recent months. In the first quarter of 2023, supply was 17% lower than at the start of 2022. “There is a very strong tension on the rental offer, mainly in the metropolises”confirms Emmanuel Trouillard, in charge of housing studies at the Paris Region Institute.

Faced with this blockage which affects the first item of expenditure of the French, the housing assistance associations believe that the executive is slow to react. “As this crisis hits millions of people, the government is slowly hurrying,” exasperated Manuel Domergue, director of studies at the Abbé-Pierre Foundation, in a column published in The cross.

A first step must finally be taken, Monday, June 5th. After being postponed, the presentation of the conclusions of the National Housing Refoundation Council is organized that day, with many proposals at stake. “Housing is at the heart of this government’s concerns”, assured on May 23 at the Assembly the minister in charge of the file, Olivier Klein. But the multiplicity and complexity of the factors that led to this crisis could make its resolution difficult.

“Home ownership has become the Holy Grail”

In the beautifully decorated windows of Parisian real estate agencies, the lack of offers of properties for rent is starting to leave gaping holes. “At the end of May, we did three rentals, whereas usually, at this time, we do 13 or 15″, laments Cyrille Kadoch, director of an agency in the 20th arrondissement of the capital. A situation never seen since the opening of his brand, more than ten years ago, and which does not suit this forties in a blue shirt, impeccably ironed. “Right now, everyone is waiting. As a ricochet effect, the markets are freezing”explains Philippe de Ligniville, deputy general manager of Bien’ici.

One of the explanations is to be found on the market side of the transaction. Listings of property for sale line agencies in major cities to the ceiling, but buyers have become scarce in recent months. Rising interest rates and tougher loan conditions have made home ownership more difficult. Result : “People who can no longer claim ownership remain tenants” and do not release their property for rent for newcomers to the market, analyzes Virginie Monvoisin, professor of economics at the Grenoble School of Management.

This situation, Audrey knows it well. The 43-year-old executive assistant has the ideal profile to become an owner: a permanent contract for 17 years, a husband also on a permanent contract and a substantial financial contribution. But impossible for the family to leave their rental in the Lyon suburbs. “Home ownership has become the holy grail. It’s a bit hard to live with. We were born here, we work here and we still can’t afford anything because of the prohibitive prices”, blows this mother of two children. A typical example of “blocking of the residential course”put forward by Emmanuel Trouillard, of the Paris Region Institute.

Saturated HLMs

This obstruction “by the top” is not the only one to grip the rental market. Access to HLM is also blocked. About 2.3 million precarious households are waiting for social housing, according to the Abbé-Pierre Foundation. And the situation is getting worse from year to year, with a number of constructions lower than the government’s objectives and a drop in allocations. “There have been a lot fewer budgetary efforts that have been made on the social park”, explains Pierre Madec, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). The Minister Delegate for Housing, Olivier Klein, denounceshe, the responsibility of certain local elected officials “who refused to sign building permits”.

“The rental market is caught in a pincer movement between the lack of outlets for social housing and the difficult access to ownership.”

Emmanuel Trouillard, in charge of housing studies at the Paris Region Institute

at franceinfo

Emmanuel Macron’s political and fiscal orientations have also kept investors away from rental real estate, according to the economists surveyed. An emblematic example: the replacement of the ISF by the real estate wealth tax (IFI). “The reform of capital taxation encourages the wealthiest households not to invest in housing, but rather in financial assets” which are less taxed, explains Pierre Madec. Consequence: at the beginning of 2023, the number of housing units authorized for construction continues to plunge, according to figures from the Ministry of Ecological Transition. A basic trend accentuated by the war in Ukraine and the inflation of building materials.

“It’s going to explode”

Investors who nevertheless continue to bet on real estate are also tempted to place their property outside the circuit of long-term rentals. “Since the 2010s, the development of seasonal rentals, such as Airbnb, has been added to the development of second or occasional residencesnotes Emmanuel Trouillard. All of this tends to eat into the rental stock in the long term and thwart construction efforts.”

However, the executive does not seem ready to reverse the trend. The examination of a cross-partisan bill providing for the regulation of these rentals and the reduction of their tax allowances was postponed on May 23 by the National Assembly.

In real estate agencies, professionals also point to another responsible for the current crisis: the ban on renting the most energy-intensive accommodation, classified G, since January 1, 2023. “JI don’t know which technocrat came up with this, but really, it’s not possible”protests a real estate agent. “It’s going to explode”, anticipates one of her colleagues. Because if less than 2% of homes are affected today, “these are primarily small old apartments in the heart of large cities, typically where there is the most need”, explains Emmanuel Trouillard. According to this specialist, the thermal renovation of buildings is essential, but should have been launched much earlier to avoid removing many properties from the market.

“Housing is completely ignored by the executive”

Faced with these obstacles, what proposals can emerge? “In the short term, there is a need to improve the solvency of precarious households, with housing aid”, proposes the economist Pierre Madec. He recalls that with control of rents, the inflationary effect of this aid is greatly reduced. “We can also change the discourse that does not encourage the wealthiest households to invest in rental housing and increase the financial means paid to social housing”, lists the economist. But the game is far from won. “For now, housing is completely ignored by the executive,” deplores Virginie Monvoisin, member of the association Les Economistes atterrés.