The European Union has a new weapon in its arsenal, but will it be enough? European justice validated, Wednesday, February 16, a mechanism allowing to block European funds going to countries which call into question the rule of law. Main targets: Poland and Hungary, where corruption is widespread and the independence of the judiciary is regularly called into question. But between the summons of the European institutions and the effective sanctions, the gap is flagrant. Five years after the start of the tensions, the two countries are still part of the EU and have the same prerogatives. Why is the European Union so reluctant to carry out its threats?
Because it is almost impossible to deprive a member state of its rights
It is the main tool available to Brussels to punish a country that violates its law. If a member violates the values of the EU, he can see his voting rights suspended in many negotiations, thanks to article 7 of the treaty of the Union. A “nuclear option”, according to former Commission President José Manuel Barroso. Poland and Hungary are both subject to this procedure, launched respectively in 2017 by the Commission and in 2018 by the European Parliament. Without any concrete effect so far.
To arrive at the suspension of rights, the procedure must be validated several times by all the major European institutions, as summarized by All Europe. “The biggest problem is the penultimate step: you need a unanimous vote of the European Council [qui regroupe les chefs d’Etat]“, points to franceinfo Cécile Robert, professor of political science at Sciences Po Lyon. However, Budapest had assured its support for Warsaw as early as 2016 and its intention to block any vote against its ally, as Politico reported (in English) and Poland’s comments suggest that it will do the same. It is therefore impossible to achieve unanimity.
Because European justice is not always effective
If Budapest and Warsaw break EU law, they face legal responses. Poland, for example, was sentenced in October by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) to a record fine of one million euros per day, as long as it has not abolished part of its reform. judicial. For Sébastien Platon, professor of European constitutional law at the University of Bordeaux interviewed by franceinfo, the judicial tool could be used more “against draconian measures, including by devious means”.
But the CJEU is not able to resolve these situations alone. “This process can be quite long”, explained the historian Matthieu Boisdron to franceinfo in June. The CJEU should issue a first decision, then see if the country takes sufficient measures, before issuing a fine. “In this period of time, Hungary could very well adjust its text and thus escape judgment”added Matthieu Boisdron, before recalling that the decisions of the CJEU were regularly “ignored”.
Sébastien Platon adds that the Commission is sometimes quite slow in taking legal action, which could be explained by its fragile political legitimacy: “The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was narrowly elected, probably with the votes of Fidesz [le parti du Hongrois Viktor Orban].“
Because the action levers were slow to appear
Apart from Article 7, Brussels had, until recently, few means of pressure on a Member State. Christian Lequesne, professor at Sciences Po and specialist in European politics, underlines a paradox.
“The EU has a lot of means of pressure on countries that want to join the club, but once they have entered, they find immense room for manoeuvre.”
Christian Lequesne, professor specializing in European politics at Sciences Poat franceinfo
According to Thierry Chopin, special adviser to the Jacques Delors Institute and professor of political science at the Catholic University of Lille, this absence of levers is also explained by the original purpose of the EU, “built as an economic market, not a political union”.
To fill these gaps, the EU has therefore set up a new system, namely the mechanism for blocking European funds in the event of a violation of the rule of law. A tool that only requires the approval of 15 Member States to be used. Gold, “European funds represent a significant share of the GDP of Poland and Hungary”, recalls Christian Lequesne. Another revolution, the European Commission announced in February that it was going to seize directly from European funds from Poland the fine it has refused to pay since September 2021.
The Commission still needs to make use of these mechanisms. While the mechanism has been applicable since its adoption in December 2020, she said she was waiting for the adoption of “Guidelines” which are not required anywhere in the texts. Similarly, the seizure of fines on European funds has been announced but not yet implemented, underlines Sébastien Platon: “We’ll see what will really be done.”
Because not all countries agree on the attitude to adopt
To hear European blame, the very place of Poland and Hungary in the EU is threatened. But an adversary in one file can become a strategic ally in another. “Emmanuel Macron is negotiating for nuclear power to benefit from the European plan to reduce CO2 emissions. He is therefore trying to obtain the support of Poland”says Cécile Robert.
Christian Lequesne also points out that Fidesz has long been an important member of the EPP, the largest group in the European Parliament. For the many German and French MEPs who are part of it, it was better to unite to retain their power in Parliament, even if it meant sparing Viktor Orban.
Because strong action could weaken the European Union
If the responses of the European institutions have been limited so far, it is also because decisions that are too brutal risk being counter-productive. “The populists in power will be able to develop their discourse of victimization even further”, by presenting the EU as tyrannical against democratically elected leaders, believes Christian Lequesne. Poland has also denounced the mechanism for blocking European funds as “an attack on its sovereignty”and Hungary says the EU is targeting it because of its law against the “representation” of homosexuality passed in July 2021.
Economic sanctions against several countries could also call into question the support of their population for the EU, which is now very much in the majority. “Financial sanctions always hit people harder than their government”, explains Christian Lequesne. But it is also all of Europe that could find itself weakened in the event of violent punishment.
“The Eurosceptic parties do not only exist in Poland and Hungary! Strong sanctions risk provoking a surge of solidarity from all the enemies of European integration.”
Christian Lequesne, professor specializing in European politics at Sciences Poat franceinfo
Risks that do not justify immobility, for Cécile Robert. “Inaction also has effects”, asserts the professor of political science. Entire groups are discriminated against “and people are getting used to the idea that these inalienable rights shared by a European community no longer exist”. Thierry Chopin is categorical: “Defending the rule of law and European values is not just a legal question. It is an intellectual and political fight.”