The fifth wave is here. Started in October and associated with the Delta variant, it has accelerated markedly in recent days in France with a new surge in the number of contaminations and hospitalizations.
Faced with this fifth wave “dazzling”, according to government spokesperson Gabriel Attal, guest of Europe 1, CNews and The echoes Sunday, a Health Defense Council is to be held on Wednesday, November 24. Although different from that of fall 2020 due to vaccination, this wave is also explained by its seasonality.
Because the Delta variant remains well established in Europe
The Delta variant is the most contagious of the current variants and has been circulating throughout Europe since the spring. After being discreet this summer, he resumed his race in early fall “in Eastern Europe, then now with our neighbors and in France”, underlined Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur and member of the Scientific Council, earlier this week.
Whether in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands or Norway, the number of daily cases of Covid-19 has jumped. In France, it practically doubled in a week. Sunday November 21, 18,189 people were infected while seven days earlier, on November 14, they were 10,023. An increase of 81.4%, according to figures from Public Health France.
Because winter is coming
Autumn temperatures are also playing a role in the epidemic recovery. “This is called the climate effect”, explains epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet. “It’s been colder recently, people find themselves more indoors. If they don’t ventilate, if they don’t wear a mask, they expose themselves.”, he notes. And since the Delta variant is more transmissible than the previous ones, “indoors, it is transmitted quickly”, concludes the scientist.
Because vaccine efficacy is declining
The vaccine is gradually losing its effectiveness and the most vulnerable people who were vaccinated at the start of the year are less and less protected. “Six months after the second dose, you have protection which is of the order of 50% whereas it was at 90% just after the injection “, emphasizes Arnaud Fontanet.
Although the vaccine, which is one of the government’s main levers in the fight against the epidemic, considerably reduces the risk of being hospitalized for a severe form, “it does not completely protect against infection “, notes the epidemiologist. “And you will all see people around you who are vaccinated and become infected, which contributes to the transmission and circulation of the virus. ” Moreover the High Authority of Health, in an opinion dated November 19, alert on the case of infected people despite a complete vaccination, whose immunity becomes “insufficient”.
Because part of the population is not yet vaccinated
Despite the fact that more than 75% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to figures from the French public health agency dated November 19, vaccination coverage is not yet optimal. Especially in the elderly whose “13% of those over 80 are still not vaccinated at all”, specifies Arnaud Fontanet.
France has fallen behind in the vaccination of this category of the elderly population, unlike the best European pupils, such as Ireland, Denmark and Portugal, where almost all (over 99%) of people over 60 years and over are now vaccinated.
Because barrier gestures are less respected
In the fall, the wearing of the mask was relaxed, in particular because it was no longer compulsory in certain public places or during gatherings. However, 26 departments have once again made it compulsory, states the daily South West.
It is also a step backwards for the wearing of masks in schools. While the government had announced that the mask would no longer be essential for primary school students in the departments least affected by the epidemic, in early October, it has been reinstated in all schools in France, since November 15.
As for teleworking, the Scientific Council, in its opinion of November 20, recommends expanding it again. He also asks to strengthen screening at school, knowing that vaccination is currently only open to over 12 years. The Scientific Council also insists on strengthening “the use of diagnostic tests as quickly as possible as soon as symptoms appear, even in vaccinated subjects”.
Because the campaign for the booster dose is just taking off
The booster dose helps to counteract “the decline over time in vaccine efficacy observed in real life” and must be injected six months after completing the first vaccination schedule. But the campaign for this dose (second or third dose, depending on the case) did not really take off in France until after the intervention of Emmanuel Macron, on November 9. “From December 15, you will need to provide proof of a reminder to extend the validity of your health pass”, then explained the Head of State, addressing the over 65s.
But the question remains unanswered for the rest of the adult population. The High Authority for Health recommends extending access to the booster dose to adults over 40, but the government has not made any announcements on this subject for the moment. For its part, the Ministry of Health claims to have nearly 28.6 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines available and to have ordered 65 million, which should be delivered until July 2022.