why is our deficit slightly lower than expected?

4.7%: this is France’s deficit last year, a figure just published by INSEE. And this deficit is lower than expected. The decryption of Fanny Guinochet.

We expected this deficit to exceed 5% of our gross domestic product, that is to say our wealth created, but the government can say thank you to the resumption of activity. It reaches “only” 4.7% according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.

>> Debt of France: “We must save money, without it being painful, that’s the difficulty”, admits an economist

Last year, many companies did well, as evidenced by the results of the CAC groups, whose profits reached record levels. This allowed more tax revenue for the state. Corporate tax yielded more than expected even though its rate fell, from 33 to 35%. Ditto, for VAT, which reported 15 billion euros more than expected. There were also more employee contributions in the funds and, on the other hand, fewer social benefits to be paid. All this improved the accounts and gave Bercy a little air.

Produce more than you spend

Same for debt. Finally, our debt does not cross the fateful threshold of three trillion euros. It has even fallen slightly as a percentage of our GDP, to 111%, so much the better, because with the rise in interest rates, the burden of this debt has increased, in other words the amount of money that we put in to repay our loan increased last year by 10 billion euros. The fear is that this load continues to progress. These good results will reassure Brussels even if the Commission’s guidelines set a public deficit below 3% by 2027.

These European demands stick more or less to the trajectory set by Paris. But these objectives are still difficult to achieve in the current social context, with high inflation. France still lives far beyond its means, regularly alerts the Court of Auditors, which calls on the government to save money. The government is committed to saving money.

The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire promises to release several billion euros, but without specifying where or how. He launched a review of public spending, to go around the posts, and see where it is possible to reduce costs. We should know more in the spring. The other way to restore the accounts, insists Bercy, is to produce more than what is spent, to reindustrialize the country, lower unemployment and work longer. And therefore carry out reforms such as pensions…


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