Emmanuel Macron “don’t row, he takes his time”, defended, Monday, May 9 on franceinfo, Christophe Castaner, the boss of the LREM deputies in the National Assembly. More than two weeks after the re-election of the President of the Republic and three days after his inauguration, there is still not the shadow of a reshuffle on the horizon, even if Emmanuel Macron now claims to have found his Prime Minister.
An uncertainty that should last several more days since the government spokesman, Gabriel Attal, assured that “the Castex government will go[it] at the end of Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term which ends on May 13 at midnight”. This strategy raises questions: is it carefully considered or imposed? In other words, is the Head of State always “the master of the clocks” or does he have to deal with impossible parameters and refusals from personalities? To see more clearly, franceinfo looks at the reasons that explain these procrastination.
Because he has long sought the rare pearl for Matignon
The profile of the future Matignon tenant sketched by Emmanuel Macron throughout his campaign and after his re-election looks like an impossible equation. “It’s about finding the rare bird that embodies competence but is also a heavyweight to keep the machinery of government running”, comments political scientist Bruno Cautrès. A heavyweight that many would like to be a woman. In 2017, the candidate Macron had expressed the wish to appoint a Prime Minister. A wishful thinking since two men – Edouard Philippe and Jean Castex – have succeeded each other as head of government. Five years later, the rumor that a woman could be appointed to Matignon returns insistently.
Between the two rounds, Emmanuel Macron also promised to appoint a Prime Minister “directly in charge of ecological planning”. Visiting Cergy (Val-d’Oise), three days after his re-election, he announced that he would appoint “someone who is attached to the social question, to the environmental question and to the productive question”.
The new head of government must also be a skilful politician because he will lead the legislative battle. In short, the name that meets all these criteria is for the moment far from obvious. “The profile has everything of a five-legged sheep indeed”laughs a ministerial adviser. “His equation is very difficult and it annoys him”comments a relative to AFP.
And yet, Emmanuel Macron has, it seems, found this rare pearl. On an official visit to Berlin (Germany) on Monday evening, he assured that he knew “of course” the name of the next prime ministerbut refused to reveal his identity. “But I’m not going to say it here, not now”he replied during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “We have the right to have a sequence of ideas but to do things in the right order”he wanted to add.
Because he has already suffered refusals and he must ensure the political balance
Obviously, the adage according to which “Matignon does not refuse” took a turn for the worse in 2022. Emmanuel Macron’s image is thus damaged by the refusals suffered for the post of Prime Minister by the director general of the real estate group Nexity, Valérie Bédague, or even the socialist deputy Valérie Rabault. The latter suggested to BFMTV that she had declined the proposal, explaining that she preferred to remain faithful to her convictions and that “retirement at 65 is not necessary”. HAS the Elysée, it is however assured that “the president did not offer the post of prime minister to anyone”. A watchword taken up by the macronists. “Some people who said they had declined the post were never actually approached by the President of the Republic or the Secretary General of the Elysée”supports a ministerial adviser to franceinfo.
Emmanuel Macron still believes in overcoming the left-right divide. The Head of State will want to respect in the announcement of his future government the balance between ministers from the right and those from the left. “He will want to bring up personalities from the center-left or center-right, there will be new personalities, local elected officialsassures Bruno Cautrès. Government casting takes time because you have to deal with the ‘at the same time'”.
Because he wants to kick off the legislative elections
If Emmanuel Macron takes his time, it is also because there is another fundamental electoral deadline: the legislative elections of June 12 and 19. However, according to a minister at franceinfo, the head of state wants to control the pace of the campaign by giving, with the announcement of the new government, the real kickoff of these elections. According to a minister to AFP, Emmanuel Macron “wants a short campaign” for the legislative ones, “perhaps to take advantage of the surprise effect” appointments.
Emmanuel Macron is thus betting on “the ‘wow’ effect of the new government, so as not to let people get used to it”confirms another heavyweight of the government to AFP. Above all, reducing the interval between nominations and ballots makes it possible to “don’t give newcomers time to talk bullshit”, he adds. And this one to invoke “the social VAT case law”a tax imprudently mentioned by Jean-Louis Borloo the day after Nicolas Sarkozy’s victory in 2007 and which cost many legislative seats on the right.
But will this “wow” effect desired by the macronists only happen? “By giving himself time, Emmanuel Macron left the field open to Mélenchon and to the left, which remobilized and gave a directionobserves Bruno Cautrès. The legislative elections, which usually confirm the presidential election, become a real political election. Ultimately, summarizes the political scientist, “Will the ‘master of the clocks’ be upstaged or will he regain leadership with the government’s announcement?”