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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hopes for a “change of direction” in European policy towards kyiv. To do this, he is relying on a strategy of blocking which has proven itself against Brussels.
Can Viktor Orban derail everything? In any case, this is Ukraine’s fear, while the heads of state and government of the European Union must decide, Thursday, December 14, whether or not to open accession negotiations with kyiv during a European Council in Brussels. At the beginning of November, the Commission recommended the adoption of such a decision, satisfied with the reforms carried out by the Ukrainian government. A month later, the Twenty-Seven have still not reached a consensus. Hungary and its Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, are refusing for the moment the opening of negotiations, judging that the country at war with Russia is “light years away” of membership, reports the Associated Press agency.
Without Budapest, an agreement is impossible, the subject requiring the unanimity of the 27 member countries of the EU. The prospect is enough to give kyiv a cold sweat. “I cannot imagine (…) the devastating consequences if the European Council failed to take a decision”, launched the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, before a meeting of his European counterparts in Brussels. The country, bogged down in a sluggish counter-offensive against Moscow, also wait for the release of a new envelope of 50 billion euros, as well as military aid of 5 billion euros. But here again, Hungary is blocking, at the risk of undermining European unity against Russia.
“If the EU does not open talks with kyiv, it will send a very bad signal to Ukraine in the war with Russia.”
Andreas Bock, researcher at the European Center for International Relations, specialist in Hungaryat franceinfo
Budapest’s refusal is not a surprise for Europeans as the populist Hungarian Prime Minister, close to Vladimir Putin, is used to this strategy. In 2022, Hungary allowed discussions on a minimum international tax on large companies to drag on, before obtaining a green light for the granting of funds from the post-Covid-19 recovery plan, recalls Context. Faced with a difficult economic situation in Hungary, one of the subjects that obsesses Viktor Orban is an envelope of almost 21 billion euros, according to figures from the European Commission, in subsidies. These funds are retained by the EU as part of procedures for infringements on the rule of law, but also the protection of LGBT+ people.
New allies to the far right?
Proof of the success of the strategy, the Commission released 10 billion euros for Hungary on Wednesday, on the eve of the European Council. The decision was conditional on the Hungarian government implementing rule-of-law reforms, which Brussels deems “satisfactory”. And it makes pro-democracy activists scream, while the Hungarian Parliament this week examined a law aimed at creating “an office for the protection of sovereignty”decried as a tool for “silence all criticism”reports The Guardian. The release of funds could not, however, be enough to unpin the “No” Hungarian.
“This time it’s not really about the money, Viktor Orban wants a new European policy towards Ukraine.”
Andreas Bock, researcher at the European Center for International Relations, specialist in Hungaryat franceinfo
“Our position on Ukraine … and many other issues will not change depending on what happens with the funds”Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs told Politico.
Faced with the American blockage regarding a new tranche of aid to kyiv, “the Hungarian Prime Minister thinks he can mobilize a new coalition, in Europe, of countries that want to stop helping Ukraine”, adds Andreas Bock. Viktor Orban “counting on a feeling of war fatigue, with the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive”, but also with the rise of far-right parties in Europe. The victories of the populist Geert Wielders in the Dutch elections in November and the pro-Russian Robert Fico in Slovakia in October “gives him hope for a change of direction”says Andreas Bock.
An anti-European feeling which benefits him
Faced with a drop in popularity in the polls, staging disagreements over Ukraine with the rest of the European Union is also a way for Viktor Orban to consolidate his power in Hungary. The head of government regularly accuses “the liberal elite” And “the bureaucrats” of the EU, as he called them in an interview with Point, to impose rules on the Hungarians. His party, Fidesz, launched a consultation on European policy in November, reports The world. The questionnaire, one of the questions of which is the following, “Brussels wants to establish migrant ghettos in Hungary. What do you think?”is accompanied by a vast poster campaign featuring Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the Commission, accompanied by the words “Let’s not dance when they whistle”.
Will the twenty-six other EU countries have to resolve that the discussions will not come to fruition during the European Council on Thursday? Several states have in any case tried to make the Hungarian Prime Minister listen to reason, including Emmanuel Macron, who received him during a working dinner on Thursday December 7. If nothing indicates that Viktor Orban has changed his mind, the meeting made it possible to “facilitate discussions during the European Council” in “understanding the requests” of the Hungarian Prime Minister, detailed analyst Mujtaba Rahman on the social network. Officially, the Hungarian line has not changed since, but European diplomats are preparing for discussions that could last all night.