The launch of the European Juice mission, which is going to explore Jupiter and its icy moons, is carried out by Ariane 5. It is the penultimate carried out by this model, while Ariane 6 is running behind schedule and the lighter launcher Vega-C is experiencing technical difficulties.
A page is about to turn. The Ariane 5 rocket carries out its penultimate launch, Thursday April 13, with the putting into orbit of the European Juice mission, which leaves to explore Jupiter and its icy moons. At the same time, a phase of serious turbulence is opening up for space Europe. Ariane 6, the successor model to Ariane 5, has been delayed and will not fly until the end of 2023. In addition, the smaller launcher, Vega-C, is entangled in difficulties after the failure of its first commercial flight in December 2022. Not to mention that Europe can no longer count on Soyuz vessels after the cessation of cooperation with Russia since its offensive in Ukraine.
In short, Europe finds itself, for an as yet undetermined time, in great difficulty in gaining access to space. A problem of the first order, acknowledged Josef Aschbacher, the director general of the European Space Agency (ESA), during a hearing at the National Assembly on February 8.
“The field of launchers is in a difficult situation, not to say a crisis.”
Josef Aschbacher, Director General of the European Space Agencyduring a hearing at the National Assembly
“It’s a situation that poses a real problem (…) In six months, we will no longer have autonomous access to space”abounds with franceinfo Philippe Baptiste, president of the National Center for Space Studies (Cnes), the French Space Agency.
A well-filled order book
The urgency is felt because the order book is full as ever. For Ariane 6, 28 launches are already planned. Fifteen are to be honored for Vega-C and two for Vega. And the schedule continues to expand: Arianespace announced in mid-March that it had signed a contract for the launch of two other Vega-C rockets and another as an option.
“Ariane 6 has its market.”
Philippe Baptiste, President of Cnesat franceinfo
“We know that 2023 and 2024 will be years of reduced launch rates from Guyana and that from 2025 there is a huge order book to be delivered”commented in mid-March to AFP Stéphane Israel, president of Arianespace.
For Vega-C, the resolution “is counted in months”
ESA intends to provide rapid responses to meet these deadlines. It’s about, “in the coming months”, of “rigorously follow everything that needs to be done to ensure the maiden flight of Ariane 6”advanced against the deputies Daniel Neuenschwander, director of launchers at ESA. “The project is not planted. We are not standing still. It is late because it is in the testing phase and we are discovering problems”summarizes Philippe Baptiste.
On the side of Vega-C, the fault at the origin of the failure of December was identified following investigations carried out by the ESA. In question: an element of the carbon composite nozzle neck manufactured by the Ukrainian Youjnoye. “A certain number of parts will have to be requalified”comments Philippe Baptiste, who believes that the time needed to resolve the problem “is counted in months”.
This lighter launcher manufactured by the Italian Avio has encountered setbacks for several years. With three failures in the last eight launches, it records a rate “totally unacceptable”, judged Daniel Neuenschwander. For Vega-C, “beyond technically solving the issue, what is much more important is really to have a robust exploitation of Vega-C, that is to say to review the industrialization that we have on this product, to say it very openly”he warned (around 1:21 in this video).
For urgent missions, a report to the competition
European space transport having gone through a crisis in the early 2000s, during the transition from Ariane 4 to Ariane 5, turmoil was also anticipated in the transition phase between Ariane 5 and Ariane 6. The Soyuz vessels were to serve as a retreat in this interlude, but the geopolitical situation with the war in Ukraine has unexpectedly complicated the situation.
During this junction period, not everything is blocked. Missions that can wait remain grounded. Those that are more urgent have found other pitchers. Two ESA missions have been assigned to the American firm SpaceX, owned by billionaire Elon Musk. The first concerns Euclid, which will study dark matter and dark energy and is to be launched in July this year. The second is Hera, the twin sister of the Dart mission, which must leave in the fall of 2024 to observe in detail the modification of the orbit of the moon Dimorphos, struck at the end of September 2022.
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Ideally, these appeals are called to remain punctual since Europe intends to resume colors as soon as possible. “This is a temporary measure that we are taking due to the interruption of Soyuz firings and while waiting for the ramp-up of Ariane 6”explained the Director General of ESA in October.
“Downgrade Risk”
Despite the grim context, Philippe Baptiste is optimistic for the months to come: the situation does not particularly raise serious concerns but urges continued vigilance. “We have to be confident. Confidence does not mean absence of control or follow-up”he argues.
The main issue, basically, does not lie in Europe’s ability to fly its machines, but in finding (or regaining) its place in the long term. The crisis of European launchers “is a subject to which we must pay attention. Not on a technical level. But we must have a reflection on the future of access to space for Europe”notes Paul Wohrer, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and specialist in space issues.
In addition to delays, technical setbacks and the geopolitical situation, “Europe is facing strong competition in commercial markets, with private players such as SpaceX and Blue Origin” (of American billionaire Jeff Bezos), he continues.
“SpaceX has created an extremely efficient organization. The technology is very reliable. Almost everything is manufactured within the company, without going through a web of subcontractors, and everything is gathered in one place.”
Paul Wohrer, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Researchat franceinfo
The whole, coupled with the possibility of reusing part of the launchers, and at a high rate, makes it possible to drastically reduce the costs of space missions and therefore to offer attractive prices.
A “risk of downgrading” of Europe is pointed out by Cédric O, former Secretary of State in charge of Digital and member of the High Level Advisory Group (HLAG), who participated in the drafting of a report (PDF in English) “on the European space revolution”. “Europe had half of the launcher market ten years ago. This year, it will only do four”, he recalls. For its part, SpaceX will produce more than a hundred in 2023. Europe has already begun part of the necessary adaptation with projects for small launchers and mini-launchers and by looking into reuse, “technological bricks that we have not yet mastered” on the Old Continent, according to Philippe Baptiste.
Sovereignty, strategy and prestige
For Europe, the issue of independent access to space is crucial for economic reasons, by not cutting itself off from interesting future markets (such as satellite constellations), but also for reasons of sovereignty, while maintaining the possibility of launching the satellites it wishes on its own terms. The idea of Ariane was born in the 1970s, when the Americans offered the Europeans their Delta launcher to put the Franco-German telecommunications satellite Symphony, one of the first of its kind, into orbit. But on the condition that it is only used for experimental and not commercial purposes. It is therefore a question of extricating oneself from the goodwill of the partners.
Independent access to space is also crucial for civil reasons, such as collecting data to monitor the weather and observe global warming, or because a person in France uses an average of 47 satellites per day. This independent access is also essential for strategic and military reasons. “Space has become a place of conflict”abounds Philippe Baptiste.
“Space defense is, for example, communicating in a secure way, seeing what is happening on the ground, seeing who is communicating with whom and also seeing what is happening in space.”
Philippe Baptiste, President of Cnesat franceinfo
Europe, considered the third space power after the United States and China, must also maintain its autonomous access to “weigh in the international standards that will arise in space”, notes Paul Wohrer. A dimension which, according to him, should not be underestimated, because it affects “to the symbol, to the prestige”.