The European Greens could lose around twenty seats in Parliament in the June elections. In question, the European economic situation as well as the attacks of the extreme right and part of the right. The campaign “will be difficult” but not impossible, those involved want to believe.
Is the green wave ebbing? At three month of the European elections, environmentalists, left behind in the polls, are worried. The green parties of the European Union (EU) achieved a breakthrough in 2019, taking 72 seats out of the 705 in the hemicycle for the 2019-2024 legislature. But they could lose 20 during the European election which will take place from June 6 to 9, according to projections from Europe Elects on February 5. Such a decline “would endanger EU climate policies”, alarms Terry Reintke, German MEP and co-leader of the European Greens for the elections. Far-right parties are showing strong growth.
In five years, the tide has turned and the ecologists no longer have it at their backs. In France, the environmentalist list led by Marie Toussaint fluctuates between 8% and 9.5% depending on theThe last three polls carried out in February by Elabe (PDF), Ifop (PDF) And YouGov. We are far from the 13.47% collected by Yannick Jadot in 2019. In Germany too, the Greens, members of the government coalition, are given around 13%, compared to a score of 21% in the last European elections. Figures which worry environmentalist parliamentarians when between them, German and French elected officials occupy 37 seats. “We knew that it would be a difficult campaign, because we are seeing a rise in reactionary currents throughout Europe”comments the boss of French environmentalist deputies, Cyrielle Chatelain.
“The end of the month trumps the end of the world”
Beyond the difficulties encountered by the parties at the national level – competition between left-wing lists in France, the unpopularity of the German, Belgian or Austrian governments – ecologists must get used to a new political situation. “The year 2019 is a bit like the peak of the climate movement, particularly with the marches organized all over Europe”, underlines Simon Persico, professor at Sciences Po Grenoble and at the Pacte laboratory. Since then, the Covid-19 crisis, the war in Ukraine and inflation have been there. “We are in a very different political dynamic, with a surge from the extreme right and a very complicated social and economic context”adds the researcher.
Exhausted by rising prices, Europeans seem less willing to make sacrifices for the planet. In a Eurobarometer published in December 2023, only 16% of those surveyed cited climate change as one of their main concerns, far behind immigration (28%) and standard of living (20%). “We are in a moment where the end of the month prevails over the end of the world”laments Belgian environmentalist MEP Philippe Lamberts.
“We are facing an exhausted, crushed, abandoned society, in which preaching effort in the face of global warming is difficult to hear.”
Philippe Lamberts, Belgian environmentalist MEPat franceinfo
However, the economic question does not explain everything. In five years, the fight against global warming has become a central issue in the action of the European Union, with the establishment of the Green Deal. The initiative of the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen aims for carbon neutrality in the Old Continent by 2050 and has required the adoption of numerous legal texts. As a result, climate issues are no longer focused solely on by environmentalists, but also by the European left and right. Traditional parties thus contributed to the adoption of the ban on the sale of new cars with thermal engines planned for 2035 or the law to restore nature.
The Greens seen as “scumbags who want to punish us”
This relative unanimity could have delighted environmentalists, but it was accompanied by another phenomenon. In five years, European far-right parties have made climate issues a privileged target. For environmentalists, it is “a backlash against climate policies” as they are implemented by the EU, analyzes Philippe Lamberts. Under pressure from the far right, the European right has shattered the relative harmony surrounding environmental issues, notably with the rejection of a plan aimed at reducing pesticides. Far-right elected officials are no longer the only ones to denounce a “punitive ecology”, expression used regularly up to the top of the French State, recalls Le Figaro.
To the surprise of those mainly concerned, the responsibility of Green elected officials is also being pointed out almost everywhere in Europe in the crisis that farmers are going through. “What we pay for today is the punitive ecology of the crazy ecologists of Brussels”attacked at the end of January on franceinfo Laurent Jacobelli, spokesperson for the RN and deputy for Moselle. “We are not the ones who develop current agricultural policies!”exclaimed MEP David Cormand in response in an article in World. “The expression ‘punitive ecology’ and the attacks against the notion of sobriety defended by ecologists are powerful political arguments, effective ideological weapons which consist of saying that the Greens are cold-blooded pissers who want to punish us”explains Daniel Boy, emeritus researcher at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof).
Never mind that Green MEPs did not support Ursula von der Leyen during her 2019 election as head of the European Commission. Environmentalists, seeing their favorite themes put forward by the EU and by voting for the measures of the Green Deal, find themselves having to defend an ecological policy which is not entirely theirs. “It is certain that the Green Deal is missing a social pillar, but at the same time, we cannot evade our responsibilities because we must continue to put it in place”estimates Terry Reintke. Amputated by around twenty seats, the Greens group would lose its influence in the European Parliament. German MEP worries about future hemicycle “much further to the right and more eurosceptic”, where the majority “would be based on the extreme right”. The president of the commission Ursula von der Leyen, candidate for a second term, has not ruled out collaboration with the nationalist right, as reported Politico.
Make the attack an advantage and “create a surge”
Faced with these headwinds, environmentalists believe that the Endangering the EU’s climate ambition could be good. “In a way, these oppositions repoliticize the climate issue”analyzes Christophe Lamberts, for whom the absence of consensus will force everyone to clearly display their positions. “The division between left and right has largely hardened in recent years on these subjects”confirms Daniel Boy. “Setbacks on ecology can create a shock among a whole series of citizens, who are, for example, in favor of reducing pesticides. analyzes Simon Persico.
European environmentalists also believe that the crisis facing the agricultural world can be an opportunity. “Farmers are protesting against decades of conservative agricultural policy (…) We must show them that they are choosing the wrong enemy with the Green Deal”explained Leonore Gewessler, Austrian Minister of the Environment, to Politico. The observation is shared by the French Greens. “We are particularly credible, we have been against free trade agreements for thirty years and we want to reform the common Agricultural Policy”, explains Cyrielle Chatelain. EELV has thus launched an agricultural tour and several of its elected officials, including Marie Toussaint, are going to the Agricultural Show in Paris on Friday March 1st.
Will the choice of “credibility” be enough?
Above all, even if it means being designated as a target, environmentalists intend to play on their difference with the extreme right. “By putting our subjects at the center of the game, the far right helps us to unfold our discourse”wants to believe Philippe Lamberts. “The environmentalist project is the idea of interdependence, that we need each other, on a personal and international level, while the far-right project is the opposite, withdrawal and rejection”, completes Cyrielle Chatelain.
It remains to convince voters, particularly on the left, that the environmentalists’ ballot is the best one to put in the ballot box. In France, the Greens are betting on seriousness and continuity, with outgoing MEP Marie Toussaint as head of the list, hardworking, but little known. “I think we are credible when we are consistent with ourselves, with the project we carry”summarizes Cyrielle Chatelain.
But “being the most credible will not be enough, because we are not yet at the level of play at which we should be”warns Philippe Lamberts, who calls on his colleagues to “take head on the issue of transforming the economic model during the campaign” and work on “the desirability of the green team”. Faced with the speeches of the extreme right, Terry Reintke intends to campaign on “security”. “If we want to live in a secure world, then European states must work much more together, not less”, she argues. There are just three months left to convince voters. And put an end to the legend that ecologists systematically succeed in years in 9 and underperform in years in 4.