These attacks have become almost daily. In recent weeks, violent explosions have regularly lit up the night sky in the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian forces, particularly in the regions of Luhansk, in the east, and Kherson, in the south. One of the latest occurred on the night of July 10-11 in Nova Kakhovka, where kyiv claims to have destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouse.
Ukraine: A fire, accompanied by strong explosions, was reported this evening in the occupied town of Nova Kakhovka (Khesron). The nature of the disaster remains to be clarified, an ammunition depot could have been targeted. pic.twitter.com/DsmLsPEi69
— Rebecca Rambar (@RebeccaRambar) July 11, 2022
Enemy ammunition stocks became the object of a constant game of cat and mouse between Kyiv and Moscow. Why have these ammunition depots become prime targets?
Because ammunition stocks are limited on both sides
After a very mobile first phase in the first weeks of the conflict, it is today on the artillery that the two camps mainly rely to progress and defend their positions. “It’s an artillery war now”said in June the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Vadym Skibitsky, in the British daily The Guardian*. “In any classic conflict, the artillery always ends up more or less by taking an important place. Supply control then becomes crucial“reminds franceinfo Christine Dugoin-Clément, researcher associated with the “risks” chair of the IAE research laboratory of Paris-Sorbonne Business School.
Especially since “both sides use a lot of ammunition”says Dara Massicot, researcher specializing in the Russian army at the American think tank Rand Corporation. Vadym Skibitsky said in June that kyiv used between 5,000 and 6,000 shells a day, while Russia would have sent nearly 45,000 in one day in the North and East alone, according to a Ukrainian general quoted by the Kyiv Independent*.
The risk is then to exhaust its stocks. Ukraine mainly used equipment inherited from the USSR at the start of the war, but “she has completely exhausted this type of ammunition” according to Christine Dugoin-Clément. It depends today mainly on the equipment delivered by its Western supporters. In June, the United States claimed to have already delivered more than 260,000 shells compatible with NATO artillery pieces. But this support is not necessarily enough.
“There is a lack of information on the state of Ukrainian stocks, but the lack of ammunition is such that it sometimes forces kyiv to make choices between the operations it wants to carry out.”
Dara Massicot, Russian army specialistat franceinfo
“kyiv also fears that Western aid is running out of steam”, explains Christine Dugoin-Clément. She evokes “the risk of weariness of Westerners, the cost that the war represents for them, and even the difficulty of producing quickly: the sectors of the military industry often already operate in almost tense flow.”
Russia has a lot more ammunition, according to Dara Massicot, but it also uses a lot more, and therefore must manufacture enough to keep up with this rate over time. The American researcher believes that “Russian industry will have enough to replenish its stock of the most basic ammunition. But will it be able to do it quickly enough?” She adds that the Russian military industry “hasn’t had to keep up this pace for decades”.
Especially since it could also lack certain elements. The precision-guided missiles it manufactures use many Western components now blocked by sanctions, according to a report* by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute. kyiv claims* that Russia uses fewer missiles today than at the beginning of the conflict, and that it used surface-to-air missiles* or anti-ship* to attack ground targets, which can be interpreted as a sign of depletion of stocks of more suitable ammunition, according to the British Ministry of Defense. To destroy an enemy ammunition warehouse is to favor these shortages.
Because Ukraine can attack more distant targets with its new weapons
Until recently, it was mainly Russia that attacked Ukrainian deposits. “Weapons factories and warehouses were Moscow’s priorities from the start of the war”, explains Dara Massicot, a specialist in the Russian army. She still targets them regularly, such as when she claimed to have hit a depot in Sloviansk on July 10.
But in recent weeks, it has been kyiv’s turn to target opposing stocks. The Ukrainian army allegedly destroyed nearly 20 Russian ammunition warehouses in the occupied Donbass and southern regions between June 8 and July 8, according to the Ukrainian media Kyiv Independent*. On July 12 alone, kyiv forces destroyed six of them, according to a Ukrainian official quoted by the independent Belarusian media Nexta*. They had detonated four more two days before, according to the Ukrainian armed forces*. Kamaz, DonetskNova Kakhovka… On social networks like Twitter and Telegram, videos claiming to show burning Russian ammunition depots are multiplying.
Video of the explosions at the Kamaz center. pic.twitter.com/SsJKOBb2wS
— Benjamin Pittet (@CUT) July 5, 2022
A good part of these targets were out of reach of the Ukrainian artillery a few weeks ago, because they were located several tens of kilometers behind the front line. But the arrival of long-range Western artillery systems, such as the French Caesars and especially the American Himars, changed the situation. “They make it possible to strike deeper into occupied territory than other artillery systems, and thus target strategic points such as fuel depots, ammunition or Russian logistics and maintenance platforms”explains Christine Dugoin-Clément. “They are also very mobile and can move quickly before and after the shot, which complicates Russian counterattacks”adds the specialist.
“It is often difficult to know what type of missile hits these warehouses”, underlines however Dara Massicot, who recalls that Ukraine also uses ballistic missiles of shorter range. But “Russian analysts are very upset against the Himars”notes the researcher. It was, for example, a Himars system that enabled Ukraine to bomb the Russian ammunition warehouse at Nova Kakhovka, according to a Ukrainian official quoted by the BBC* and the Russian Embassy in the UK on Twitter*.
These strikes far from the front line can however cause collateral victims, because the warehouses are sometimes located near civilian populations, in defiance of one of the additional protocols of the Geneva Convention. The Russian occupation forces claim that the Ukrainian strike in Nova Kakhovka killed at least seven civilians, which kyiv denies, which evokes 52 military victims. Moscow, for its part, justified the strike on the Kremenchuk shopping center, which caused at least 20 civilian deaths on June 28, claiming it was harboring ammunition.
Because it complicates the logistics of the enemy
Disrupting the availability of ammunition also means acting on an area essential to victory: logistics. If Russia wants to protect its stockpiles of ammunition from Ukrainian artillery, it will have to move them further from the front. But this complicates their transport: they are generally loaded by hand on a train and then unloaded in warehouses, often located near stations. They are then moved manually in trucks which transport them close to the front, as explained by themilitary analyst Thomas Theiner on Twitter*. All of this takes time, manpower and resources.
The further the warehouses are from the front lines, the longer, more fuel-intensive and dangerous the transport by truck will be. “It was one of the biggest mistakes Russia made at the start of the war”recalls Christine Dugoin-Clément: “It had stretched its supply chains too much, which made it easier for Ukraine to target them”. It doesn’t matter how much ammunition Russia has if it can’t get it to its troops.
Faced with the threat to their warehouses, both sides are trying to adapt. “The Ukrainian army moves and disperses its elements to avoid concentrating them in a single easy target”describes Dara Massicot. “Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems”, adds Christine Dugoin-Clément. But their effectiveness is debatable. Igor Girkin, an ex-Russian officer in favor of an even more violent war against Ukraine, says on Telegram (in Russian) that “Russian air defense systems (…) proved ineffective against massive Himar strikes”. “Whatever the problems Russia is going through, Ukraine’s situation is worse”however, recalls Dara Massicot. “It’s a fight until one of them wears out.” Or exhausts its reserves.
* These links refer to articles or content in English.