The president stood out on Monday with an outing on the risk of a “civil war”, which was denounced by several of his political adversaries.
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A president who warns of a risk of “civil war”. The long interview with Emmanuel Macron granted to the podcast “Génération Do It yourself”, and broadcast Monday June 24, caused his opponents to react. Six days before the first round of the legislative elections, the head of state toughens his tone and declares that “the extreme right, because it refers people to a religion or an origin, (…) divides and pushes towards civil war”. At the same time, he accuses La France insoumise of advocating “a form of somewhat electoral communitarianism”which returns “people exclusively to their religious or community affiliation”And “that’s also the civil war behind it”.
The presidential strategy is not new. During his press conference organized two days after the dissolution, the head of state had already laid the foundations of his camp’s campaign strategy : pose as a reassuring shield against the “two extremes”.
Well ahead in the polls by the RN, and now also by the left-wing parties allied within the New Popular Front (NFP), the presidential camp is trying to regain color by dramatizing its speech, as during the European campaign. The strategy is widely shared and assumed by his party for this legislative campaign. On Thursday, Gabriel Attal also used the expression of “civil war” during a meeting, an executive advisor told franceinfo. Tuesday, it was the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin who alerted on a risk of “violence in the country” and of “troubles”on Europe 1, accusing the RN and LFI of being able “to be dangerous”.
“For us, both extremes are dangerous if we look at their program. We must fight them with the same vigor”says an executive advisor. “I will not attack him on the use of the term civil war, the risk is great that those who are unhappy with the arrival of one of the two blocs will not accept it. There are two Frances which will be in direct confrontation, our side does not provoke that”adds a Renaissance executive.
By evoking the hypothesis of a “civil war” fueled by a victory of the RN or LFI in the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron seeks to pose as the representative of a “third way”, reassuring because “supported by a Prime Minister and political leaders you know”, he wrote to the French in a letter published on Sunday. It is “the best for our country”, “because she is the only one who can certainly block the extreme right as well as the extreme left in the second round.” However, based on the polls, the presidential camp seems unable to qualify for this second round in a large number of constituencies, which may explain Emmanuel Macron’s new warning, criticized by all the opposition parties.
“It’s a strategy of fear”accused Eric Ciotti, speaking to RMC – BFMTV on Tuesday. “Let’s avoid scaring the French”added the contested president of the Republicans since his support for the RN, while the rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon accused the head of state of “set on fire”on France 2, Monday.
This feeling is already present among part of the electorate. The surveys highlight a “fear match”, notes Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe polling institute. In a study published on Saturday (PDF)53% of respondents say they are “worried” as for an NFP victory in the legislative elections, and 50% in the event of a winning RN, while the victory of the presidential camp only worries 39% of those questioned. “The concern of those surveyed is almost at the same level in the event of a victory for the RN or the NFP. It is a match between the desire for change and the fear of change”underlines Bernard Sananès to franceinfo.
Nearly a third of French people say they have “fear” of an absolute majority for the RN or the NFP at the end of the vote, according to a survey by the Verian Institute for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and Opinionpublished Tuesday (PDF). But the score of the dramatization played by Emmanuel Macron seems above all to affect his electorate: 76% and 81% of Renaissance supporters say they are “worried” from the perspective of a victory for the NFP or the RN. By playing on the fear of possible tensions, Emmanuel Macron can “have an impact on certain categories of voters, notably retirees, who are traditionally afraid of instability”, observes Bernard Sananès. Although he can hope to mobilize his base, the head of state is struggling to boost voting intentions for his party. “For the moment, this is not visible in the opinion surveys; on the contrary, a large proportion of voters want change”the pollster continues.
This dramatization of the campaign speech is also linked to Emmanuel Macron’s recent declarations on immigration or “sex change in town hall”, analyzes Benjamin Morel, political scientist and lecturer at Paris II University. Through these positions, the head of state can embody “an alignment of the centrist electorate with that of the right, who may not want to vote RN”.
His outings reinforce the image of a president losing influence, including with his supporters. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe thus estimated that the president had “kill” the majority with the dissolution. “We must still say that, until recently, everything revolved around Emmanuel Macron, he was at the center of power”, underlines Benjamin Morel. Far from putting him back at the center of the game, the dissolution left him alone. The President has become a foil and many outgoing Macronist candidates prefer to avoid adding a portrait of the Head of State to their campaign posters.
Result, “even if the majority coalition wins the elections, the majority will be that of Gabriel Attal, not the president”adds Benjamin Morel, who judges that the head of state “almost no longer exists politically”. An impression of “end of reign”three years from the end of the mandate ofEmmanuel Macron. Therefore, according to the political scientist, there remains “only an attempt to continue to exist” in the media, which could have consequences for the legislative elections and after July 7. The presidential outing on the “civil war” resembles for Benjamin Morel a “last card” presidential, in the mode “It’s me, or chaos.”