why Emmanuel Macron risks seeing his political weight weakened after the dissolution of the National Assembly

European leaders will debate this evening in Brussels the allocation of the highest positions in the EU, in the wake of the European elections.

Who will get the “top job”? The leaders of the Twenty-Seven are expected at a debate, Monday June 17, in Brussels, on the allocation of “top jobs”, the highest positions in the EU, including the possible reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen at the head of the Commission, in the wake of the European elections.

This informal meeting is a first meeting for the heads of state and government of EU countries after the June 6-9 election marked by a surge of the extreme right in several countries, including France and the ‘Germany. A European Council is scheduled for June 27 and 28, but a consensus already seems to be emerging on the main positions of the EU: the presidency of the Commission, that of the European Council or even the post of high representative for foreign policy.

If, respectively, the German Ursula von der Leyen, the Portuguese Antonio Costa and the Estonian Kaja Kallas will probably be named for these key European positions, what was the weight of France in this casting? Because, on the sidelines of these discussions, Emmanuel Macron will meet his counterparts from the European Council a week after the European elections. And there is no doubt that the other heads of state and government will question him about his choice to dissolve the National Assembly. In fact, is the head of state likely to see his political weight considerably reduced?

If this European trio seems established, Emmanuel Macron does not seem to have been able to really weigh in, when, in 2019, he had largely designed the casting. The French president is first weakened by the score of his troops in the European elections: only 13 elected, compared to 23 previously. Macronists therefore less influential, on positions, but also on votes and on the center of gravity of the hemicycle, clearly further to the right.

And then Emmanuel Macron is weakened by the dissolution of the National Assembly: his counterparts, particularly in the east, are worried. What support for Ukraine if the far right arrives in Matignon? What consistency, too, between the word given at the table of 27 and the decisions taken by the ministers – who, we remind you, legislate? The French head of state forced to live together is a less credible, less strong pro-European voice, covered, in particular, by that of the Italian Giorgia Meloni, the far-right leader, big winner of the European election.