The Prime Minister has resumed negotiations with the Republicans to reach a compromise on the immigration bill. But whatever the outcome of the text, the question of its retention at Matignon will arise.
“She wants to show [Gérald] Darmanin that she can succeed where he failed”, observes a ministerial advisor. Long on the front line on the immigration bill, the Minister of the Interior was forced to leave this role to the one he sought to replace a few months ago: Elisabeth Borne. After the vote on a motion of rejection in the National AssemblyMonday December 11, the Prime Minister “took control” in discussions with the right to try to find a compromise, says the same advisor.
Two meetings have already taken place in Matignon with the leaders of the Republicans to negotiate step by step the 90 articles of the bill. A third round is scheduled for Sunday at 7 p.m. The head of government intends to reach an agreement that can be ratified by the joint committee (CMP) which meets on Monday at 5 p.m., before the Senate and the National Assembly vote on it on Tuesday. Elisabeth Borne “play big”breathes a deputy from the right wing of the macronie. “The mission is complicated, but not impossible, defends an advisor to the executive. Because Elisabeth Borne actually has “two missions”: “find an agreement with LR and not fracture the majority”.
“She is very correct”, according to Bruno Retailleau
The tenant of Matignon has “was put back in the saddle by the fact that LR wanted to negotiate with her”, underlines political scientist Bruno Cautres. The day after the adoption of the rejection motion, the boss of LR, Eric Ciotti, affirmed on Europe 1 to be “open to discussion on the rest of this text”but “with the Prime Minister”. A way of sidelining the Minister of the Interior, with whom relations have become considerably strained. “Darmanin is very weakened, he admitted it himself since he speaks of failure, Borne is personally involved”supports an LR MP with France Télévisions.
In form, at least, the discussions with Elisabeth Borne “are going well”assures an advisor to the executive. “She has always had good relations with LR, it is a discussion that is both political and technical, it is progressing well. And then Elisabeth Borne loves negotiation and negotiations”he describes. The boss of the LR senators confirms the cordiality of the exchanges: “She is very correct. But the part is complicated with her majority”estimates Bruno Retailleau.
In the presidential camp, in fact, there are several who salute a head of government who is going to the front. “She does an excellent job of bringing everyone around the table and proposing compromises, this is the logic of our institutions under the Fifth Republic: the Prime Minister is the leader of the majority”, applauds Renaissance MP Paul Midy. “She really behaves like a head of government, it’s rather courageous”supports a ministerial advisor.
Still, the challenge is significant. In the absence of a text voted on by the Assembly, it is the hardened version voted on by the Senate which serves as the basis for negotiations between the executive and the right. However, for part of the majority (the left wing of Renaissance and the MoDem) this text acts as a foil. In the opposite camp, LR has warned: they will only mix their voices with those of the presidential camp on condition of taking over the entire version of the upper house. “Elisabeth Borne tries to connect the two wires, it’s sure that it sways on both sides”summarizes a ministerial advisor.
“Matignon’s authority is eroded”
The Prime Minister must also deal with certain members of the government who seek to impose their line, like Bruno Le Maire or Olivier Véran. The Minister of the Economy called in Le Figaro has “take the Senate version” with a view to the joint committee. As for the government spokesperson, he stressed, Thursday evening, during a meeting in Matignon, that it was difficult to trust LR deputies to have texts adopted.
VSThese positions did not please Elisabeth Borne, who reframed them, according to a source within the executive, confirming the story made by several media outlets, including BFMTV. “Olivier Véran and Bruno Le Maire were hit. She tries to hold the government collective, but it’s too late. Matignon’s authority is eroded”estimates a ministerial advisor, joined by Bruno Cauvrai: “When we are obliged to let it be known that we are the boss, it reflects the fact that there is a problem.”
“She links her fate to that of the text”
Elisabeth Borne’s efforts to get the immigration bill out of the rut come at a particularly delicate period for the Prime Minister. Already a starter for Matignon this summer, she has found herself for several weeks at the center of rumors which make her the main victim of a possible reshuffle after the end-of-year holidays. She is therefore trying to score points with this bill. “She links her fate to that of the text”estimates a ministerial advisor.
“Elisabeth Borne feels in danger if it does not pass, which was not obvious at the start of the examination of the bill.”
A ministerial advisorat franceinfo
In the event of an agreement with LR and a vote in Parliament, will Elisabeth Borne keep her place? Not necessarily, because Emmanuel Macron could hasten his departure. “The President of the Republic wants to change Prime Minister at the start of the school year, in January. She is a little burnt outsays one of those close to the head of state. What she’s doing right now can save her, but it’s not sure it’s enough. At least it would come out the top.”
“Close this sequence as quickly as possible”
In the eyes of one of her ministers, the Prime Minister’s equation is impossible to solve in any case. “Heads: there is no text and it is a failure of the government while 70% of French people are for it. Tails: there is a text, but we already know that it will be inspired by the right. But Elisabeth Borne is the left, it’s her political DNA and that of her supporters, those who pushed the hardest for her to be at Matignon.”
“If she fails, she will have to take responsibility no matter what.”
A ministerat France Télévisions
Beyond the personal future of the Prime Minister, the majority and the executive could enter a phase of strong turbulence in the coming days. “If there is a failure, it will be collective and we will all have to question ourselves”warns Renaissance MP Ludovic Mendes.
The crisis could continue in the coming weeks or even months. “We are playing big for the rest of the five-year termadmits a majority deputy. It is our collective capacity to reform that is at stake.”, while the presidential camp only has a relative majority in the National Assembly. “We need to close this sequence as quickly as possible, whether there is a positive conclusion or not”insists another parliamentarian.