Operation Wagner is synonymous with destabilization. First, for the Westerners, the Malian state – or what remains of it – would do better to use its meager resources to support its soldiers and its population rather than to pay foreign mercenaries. Mercenaries who come to protect the Malians from terrorists but also to help the junta to stay in power. However, Paris in particular, is desperately trying to convince the military to let go of the controls and organize elections to return power to civilians. Wagner’s arrival risks ruining these efforts.
Wagner in Mali “We note the rotation of several Russian military planes delivering equipment to Wagner operators in Bamako, the construction of a military camp at the airport and the arrival of several geologists linked to this group”, government source French. pic.twitter.com/y9ElgehiBZ
– Laurent Larcher (@LaurentLarcher) December 23, 2021
We must look at what is happening in the Central African Republic, where the organization was established in 2018. The country has entrusted Wagner with the training of its army and numerous law enforcement missions. Today, it is she who holds the keys to the security apparatus, which protects the president; its members even command units hitherto formed by the soldiers of the European Union.
Their methods? Brutality, abuses. On several occasions, their attacks on Fulani villages have resulted in dozens of civilian deaths, including women and children. Westerners fear the same abuses in Mali.
How can they react? In the Central African Republic, Europe has sanctioned a dozen members of the organization and suspended its training operations.
The European Parliament has just adopted by a very large majority the resolution of which I am the author, which denounces the atrocities committed by the Wagner group, calls for rapid and strong sanctions and urges Mali not to resort to these criminal mercenaries . pic.twitter.com/nr9GBN0z4i
– Nathalie Loiseau (@NathalieLoiseau) November 25, 2021
In Mali, beyond the sanctions, we do not know what the Westerners engaged in the anti-jihadist fight will do. For the moment, in any case, there is no question for France to withdraw Barkhane more quickly than envisaged (the force must pass from 5,000 men to approximately 3,000 within two years).
But within the European force Takuba, several countries have already made it known that the deployment of mercenaries was incompatible with their presence. Nobody wants to be in contact with the Russians on the ground.
It is also a question of influence for Europeans. In recent years, Russia has engaged in an all-out operation in Africa. Soft power, with pro-Russian propaganda campaigns on social networks. The sponsorship of anti-French influencers. Funding for films and cartoons that equate Russians with heroes who protect local populations. To push its pawns, it also relies on the military component. Wagner, whose crest represents a white skull on a black background, is present in Sudan, Mozambique, Madagascar, Libya.
[ RUSSIE | AFRIQUE ]
Presence of Wagner on the African continent. Mali could soon be added to the list of 14 African countries which are already calling on Russian military companies. pic.twitter.com/Y9G8Wh1K2h
– (Little) Think Tank (@L_ThinkTank) October 3, 2021
Relying on unconventional networks, above all, allows the Russian state to deny its responsibility and its involvement. Officially the Kremlin has no link with Wagner but the more Russia advances, the less the Europeans are able to counterbalance and the more France’s influence crumbles; the arrival of the mercenaries in Mali looks like a defeat, for Brussels as for Paris.