Iran fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. This attack of a rare scale followed the assassinations of the leaders of Hezbollah and the leader of Hamas. Two experts help us see things more clearly.
Why this attack?
“Iran was forced […] to respond to what happened in Lebanon” with the assassination by Israel last week of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, explains Sami Aoun, professor at the University of Sherbrooke and director of the Middle East Observatory. Orient and North Africa at UQAM. Iran is an important ally of Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas.
“Did the strike achieve its objectives? Certainly, in the sense that Iran is sending a message that it still supports the factions [qui lui sont] loyal — Hezbollah, Hamas and the others,” notes Mr. Aoun. “There was no devastating damage,” he notes. At the time of writing, authorities reported one Palestinian dead and two injured on the Israeli side. This leads the expert to say that it is obviously a “largely symbolic strike” on the part of Iran.
Francesco Cavatorta, professor of political science at Laval University, agrees. With its attacks in Lebanon, Israel would have in some way provoked Iran and forced a response, he claims. “The response was to satisfy public opinion a little. »
Does Iran have the military capabilities to harm Israel?
“No,” Professor Cavatorta responds straight away. If the attack served to avenge the assassination of the Hezbollah leader, it was also intended to “show that Iran has military capabilities”. “But if it came to a more serious confrontation, Israeli and American capabilities have no competition. »
Sami Aoun makes the same reading of the situation. Iranian military capabilities are “almost primary,” especially when compared to their Israeli adversaries. “The Iranians do not have the level of force [nécessaire pour frapper durement l’État hébreu]but they are certainly capable of harming Israel. For the moment, this Iranian strike is only to say: “We are here, we are determined to support the factions [qui nous sont alliées] even if Hezbollah is bruised.” »
What are the stakes of such an attack?
These strikes expose the internal and external tensions affecting the Iranian regime, according to the experts consulted.
“This strike came after a lot of hesitation and internal debate in Iran,” Mr. Aoun said. President Massoud Pezeshkian and his inner circle “did not want to go too far in vengeance and revenge.” At the same time, the Revolutionary Guards — a branch of the Iranian armed forces that is on the list of terrorist entities recognized by Canada — wanted a large-scale attack despite the risks of triggering a frontal war with Israel. Tuesday’s strikes represent “a certain compromise” between these two camps, maintains Professor Aoun.
According to Mr. Cavatorta, “this finally shows that the real issue in the region is indeed the confrontation between Israel and Iran. […] It is the rivalry which has somewhat structured regional relations in recent years. »
What can we expect next?
A frontal war is unlikely, believes Sami Aoun. “The Biden administration has a very, very strong alliance with the Israeli government against Hezbollah and to deter Iran. That said, the U.S. government “does not want to hit the facilities hard or topple the Iranian regime.” He’s not playing this game right now. »
On the other hand, in Lebanon, “it is unlikely that [le premier ministre israélien] Netanyahu stops at that level,” since he is making concrete gains in his war against Hezbollah, Mr. Aoun continues. “The most likely scenario is that its war machine continues to advance gradually through incursions [et d’]trying to make Hezbollah suffer more setbacks. »
For his part, Francesco Cavatorta does not expect big changes on the international political scene. Given the strength of its alliance with the Americans and the relative disinterest of China (and Russia, which is occupied with its invasion of Ukraine), “for the Israelis, at this moment, this is an excellent opportunity to try to hit as hard as possible as many enemies as possible, without consequences,” explains the expert.