why chocolate prices are higher this year, and expected to continue to rise

The world price of cocoa jumped 160% over one year, due in particular to poor harvests in the main producing countries.

Your Easter chocolate bill may have left you with a bitter aftertaste. Eggs, chickens, rabbits… The consumer association UFC-Que Choisir, which reviewed a catalog of 80 chocolates in a study published Wednesday March 27, observes that their price has increased on average by 5% this year by compared to 2023. A level much higher than food inflation, which stood at 1.7% year-on-year in March. How can we explain this increase in prices, which could well last?

If chocolate is more expensive on the shelves, it is partly due to the explosion in the price of cocoa beans. Its global price jumped more than 160% compared to the last Easter holiday, according to the platform. trading eToro. For the very first time, cocoa briefly crossed the $10,000 per tonne mark on Tuesday. An increase linked to poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together represent more than half of world production.

The aftermath of El Niño

West Africa is bearing the brunt of the effects of the El Niño climatic phenomenon, and has been confronted in recent months with heavy rains and an episode of drought. “This caused a certain amount of rot and mold on the trees”explains Thierry Lalet, president of the Confederation of Chocolatiers and Confectioners of France, to Europe 1. “We saw the appearance of diseases, a bit like in the vineyards”. THE Humid conditions have notably allowed the proliferation of the cocoa shoot edema virus, which causes the rotting of cocoa beans on trees.

The rise in the price of cocoa adds to the inflation which has hit other components of the price of chocolate products, such as sugar and energy, in recent years. “Although it is currently comparable to that of Easter 2023″the price of sugar “has increased significantly (+16%) since Easter 2022”notes the eToro platform.

Costs passed on differently depending on the chocolate makers

This increase comes at a crucial time for chocolatiers: Easter is the second highlight of the year, after Christmas. Easter weekend celebrations represent around 11% of their annual sales, says the specialist magazine LSA. In this context, professionals in the sector must decide between increasing their prices – at the risk of suppressing consumers’ appetites – or letting part of their margins disappear.

Large manufacturers generally buy their beans well in advance. The cocoa consumed this year was harvested last year, before El Niño hit, underlines The Parisian. But some of them have already anticipated and revised their prices. At the beginning of March, Lindt & Sprüngli warned that its prices would increase in 2024 and 2025, after an increase of 10.1% on average in 2023. Thus, the brand’s golden rabbit is currently sold at a price 6% higher than that from last year, according to UFC-Que Choisir.

Part of this increase in costs, however, remains “the responsibility of the manufacturers” who does not “cannot fully pass on this increase to retail prices”since they are adjusted at certain intervals during negotiations with large stores, “and not continuously”underlines Thomas Juch, director of public affairs of the federation of Swiss chocolate manufacturers, to AFP. “He there is an effort on the margin” and the increase for consumers “is under control, because the prices were fixed with distributors several months ago, when the rise in cocoa prices was less steep”agrees Gilles Rouvière, general secretary of the Chocolate Union, on BFM.

“The French need comfort”

As for the artisan chocolatiers, “we are not on the same page process supply”deciphers Thierry Lalet. “The beans we use are off the market, we work much more with cooperatives and we have fewer intermediaries.”explains on Europe 1 the president of the Confederation of Chocolatiers and Confectioners of France.

A chocolatier in Brive (Corrèze) estimates, to France Bleu, that the rise in prices is hitting the big manufacturers more, who usually pay for their cocoa “cheap”. “The problem is that it’s not just raw materials that are increasing: there are also ribbons and food packaging and for us, this is a very important sector,” testifies for her part the sales manager of another Limousin chocolate factory, which increased its prices by 2%.

Despite these increases, the sector remains confident. “Easter is an anticipated celebration, chocolate is a pleasure purchase and the French need comfort more than ever and, despite all the crises, sales are on the rise”assures Gilles Rouvière.

A trend set to continue

But prices should continue to rise in stores over the coming months. “On Christmas chocolate, for sure, we can expect a strong impact. And probably on Easter 2025, if the situation does not change”warns Dominique Schelcher, general director of Système U, on RMC. “Price negotiations with major retailers for next Christmas are starting now, and it’s true that we are worried”concedes the general secretary of the Chocolate Union, on BFM.

“If we want SMEs to get through this period [de Nöel]prices will have to increase, there is a danger for the sustainability of these companies which are weakened”he adds. The union is particularly concerned about “small” chocolatiers, who have not yet stocked up for Christmas. “If they haven’t bought before, they will have to buy at peak time,” deplores Gilles Rouvière on franceinfo.