why can’t Europe produce enough ammunition for kyiv?

“Out of a million shells that the European Union promised us, it was not 50% but unfortunately 30% that were delivered,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday February 26. As the war in Ukraine has entered its third year, kyiv is once again alerting its European allies about repeated delays in promised munitions deliveries. The Twenty-Seven had committed in the spring of 2023 to supply one million munitions (mainly 152 and 155 millimeter shells) before the end of March. This promise, which aroused great hopes at the time of its announcement, today appears impossible to keep, according to the own admission of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. At the end of January, the diplomat admitted that only 52% of ammunition would be delivered to kyiv.

This situation is forcing Ukrainian artillery to ration its fire, the White House reported in mid-February, while on the other side of the front line Moscow is subjecting its adversaries to a veritable deluge of fire. According to Estonian Defense Ministry estimates, the Russians fired up to 60,000 shells per day during the first phase of the war, in spring 2022. This consumption rate decreased, reaching in the second half of year 2023 between 10,000 and 15,000 shells per day, a figure much higher than the 5 to 8,000 shells used on the Ukrainian side. In this high-intensity war, the Russian army can count on its industry, which has multiplied its means of production. According to Ukrainian intelligence services cited by the Kyiv PostRussia will release nearly two million shells from its factories during 2023, while European industries are struggling to keep up.

European industry not armed for war

In this industrial competition between the Twenty-Seven and Russia, Moscow is in the lead. The European Union has a limited number of arms companies, which are not configured to supply an army engaged in a high-intensity conflict. “For thirty years, European countries purchased less than 20,000 shells per year”says Léo Péria-Peigné, specialist in arms issues at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). “Before the start of the conflict, France produced 20,000 155 mm shells per year”, specifies Cédric Perrin, LR senator from the Territoire de Belfort and chairman of the Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee in the Senate. This annual production would meet the needs of the Ukrainian army for a duration of only four days of combat.

European industrial capacities “were reduced, at the end of the 1990s, to the real needs of armies (…) often involved in asymmetric conflicts abroad” characterized by a low ammunition consumption rate, emphasizes Gesine Weber, researcher at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) think tank in Paris. “The industry was adapted to a scenario in which the needs were far removed from what is needed in high-intensity warfare,” she continues. As a result, European industries “were assimilated to artisanal installations manufacturing a small number of products”according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IIES).

Supply chains under strain

Awakening and transforming a shrunken productive system takes time, according to Gesine Weber. “European industry is not ready to supply such a mass of ammunition or heavy weapons in such a short time”, she notes. Some companies are managing to increase production rates, such as the German group Rheinmetall, the largest European manufacturer of artillery and tank ammunition, which announced in early February the construction of a new factory on its site. from Unterlüss in Lower Saxony. The company aims to increase its production tenfold to reach the threshold of 700,000 shells manufactured. In France, in Bourges (Cher), the Nexter factory, a subsidiary of the Franco-German group KNDS, which manufactures Caesar cannons for the Ukrainian front, has recruited and accelerated its production rate, going from nine to six months to machine a tube.

This transition represents a titanic undertaking, in terms of “machines, qualified personnel” but also quantities of raw materials. Certain essential materials, found in abundance before the conflict, become rare. The multiplication of demands from manufacturers quickly created a “a bottleneck”, explains Léo Péria-Peigné. Supply chains are not sized to meet such demand. “This is particularly the case for powder, acids, explosives or potash”, states the chairman of the Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee in the Senate. Explosia, the main European supplier of explosives, has been operating at full capacity since the start of the Russian invasion. However, the Czech company does not plan to increase its production before 2026, specifies the American daily The Financial Times. These shortages limit European arms manufacturers and lengthen production times. “Factories are not operating at their full potential”, explains the Ifri specialist. Some groups “could work 100%, but [sans matières premières] they would not be able to supply production.”