The Israeli Prime Minister, who holds the record for longevity at the head of the Jewish state, has been confronted with record unpopularity since the start of the war against Hamas.
Faced with accusations of corruption, criticism and scandals that have punctuated his twenty-seven years of political life, Benjamin Netanyahu has managed, against all odds, to stay in power and emerge unscathed from seemingly desperate situations. “He got up every time we thought he was finished, […] he has this reputation as a phoenix that rises from the ashes”observes Denis Charbit, professor of political science at the Free University of Israel and author of Israel and its paradoxes: preconceived ideas about a country that stirs up passions (ed. Le Cavalier bleu, 2015).
However, the attack launched by Hamas on October 7, causing the death of 1,200 people, shattered the myth of “Bibi the magician”, as Israeli chroniclers nicknamed him. “Israeli citizens, whether they are Likud voters [le parti du Premier ministre] or not, have internalized the fact that Netanyahu is over”explains Denis Charbit.
The days of the Prime Minister, contested by public opinion and weakened by the war which, on Sunday January 7, enters its fourth month, seem numbered. Franceinfo tells you why.
Because his speech based on security and the economy no longer appeals
“I would like to be remembered as the protector of Israel”, insists Benyamin Netanyahu in front of the elite of the international economy, gathered in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2016. Since his entry into politics at the end of the 1980s, he has made security one of his favorite themes . During the last campaign for the legislative elections in November 2022, “mister security” traveled the country in an armored vehicle equipped with bulletproof glass to promote the fight against internal insecurity.
But there you have it, this speech “focused on security and economic success which allowed it to win numerous elections in the past, no longer finds the same echo within Israeli society”, comments the professor of political science. Since the October 7 Hamas offensive, Benjamin Netanyahu has found himself confronted with controversies. Criticized for failing to prevent the Hamas attack, the head of government is held responsible by public opinion for the security failures. At the end of November, the New York Times assured that the Israeli authorities had been aware of the Hamas attack plan for several months. Added to the intelligence failure is the military failure: the immense barrier surrounding the Gaza Strip, equipped with hundreds of state-of-the-art cameras and radars, was easily crossed by the men of Hamas. The “iron wall” built between 2018 and 2021, at the heart of the defense system of the Jewish state, was supposed protect the inhabitants of the south of the country.
As a warlord, Benjamin Netanyahu has also failed to restore his image. Despite his visits to the front and to Gaza, to the troops engaged in the counter-offensive, the leader’s sympathy capital continues to erode. “The charm no longer works, it has been broken (…)analyzes Denis Charbit. The affection and compassion of the Israelis go first and foremost to the simple soldiers, to the soldier who is present in Gaza and who risks losing his life at any moment.”
And when the army achieves its objectives in its war against Hamas, as the death, on Wednesday, of the number 2 of the organization in Lebanon, “the benefits of these actions do not accrue to himunderlines Nimrod Goren, researcher in charge of Israeli affairs at the Middle East Institute and president of Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. These successes are primarily attributed to the military and the state apparatus.”
Because his rival Benny Gantz steals the show
The Israeli leader was forced to form a national unity government during the conflict and a war cabinet with his rival Benny Gantz. Since then, the man who was his Minister of Defense between May 2020 and December 2022 has seen his popularity increase. According to an opinion poll published Tuesday by the independent research center Israel Democracy Institute, only 15% of Israelis want Benjamin Netanyahu to continue his mandate after the end of the war. He comes in second position, eight points behind Benny Gantz who is favored by almost a quarter of those polled and is now favorite in the polls in the event of early elections.
For Denis Charbit, the popularity of the leader of the National Unity Party among Israelis can be explained by his calm: “He embodies a sobriety which is the polar opposite of Netanyahu. He speaks little, does not make big speeches and assumes the responsibilities incumbent upon him”. Whatever indicator is chosen to measure the popularity of Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition, “they are inexorably losing groundspecifies Nimrod Goren. What Israelis want today is for the country to be governed by leaders with diverse political profiles, responsible and concerned about the unity of the country..
But despite the polls which are unfavorable to the Israeli Prime Minister, it is difficult to predict at this stage when a recomposition of the political scene will take place. “Netanyahu may be politically devastated, but his coalition is not”, explains Denis Charbit. It has a stable majority in the Knesset (the Israeli Parliament) with 64 seats. “A member of the current coalition would have to withdraw from the government for a major change to occur, underlines Nimrod Goren. Snap elections are expected to be held later this year, but the political scenario is not yet clear.”
For his part, the main interested party, aged 74, refuses to comment on his political future and gets annoyed when asked about this subject. “I’m stunned. I’m just stunned. Our soldiers are fighting in Gaza. Our soldiers are dying in combat. The families of the hostages are living a huge nightmare, and this is what you have to do? There will be a time for policy”, he responded to the press according to comments reported by the AP press agency.
Because a political and legal tsunami awaits him
Benjamin Netanyahu is also, in the middle of the war, caught up once again by his legal troubles. The Prime Minister’s corruption trial, suspended for two months, resumed on December 4 in Jerusalem. The head of government must answer for corruption, fraud and breach of trust in three cases, accusations which he rejects. He is suspected of having received bribes from personalities with a total value of around 700,000 shekels (or a little more than 173,000 euros) in exchange for government favors. This situation is unprecedented for a Prime Minister who should be called to the helm in a few months, according to the Israeli press.
Furthermore, the creation, at the end of the war against Hamas, of a commission of inquiry into the shortcomings of the army, the government, intelligence and Benjamin Netanyahu himself before the attack on 7 October seems inevitable. Some Likud members are already demanding it. “It will be very severe and will spare no one. This commission will have the heavy task of prosecuting the blindness of its leaders,” declares Denis Charbit. “But before that, we will have to ensure that it is properly implemented,” warns Nimrod Goren, that it be independent of the political system, that it does not serve anyone’s political interests and that it investigates at each level of the State”. Historical precedents exist. In 1974, the commission chaired by Shimon Agranat was charged with investigating errors made by the Israeli military and executive. She had pushed for the resignation of the Labor Prime Minister at the time, Golda Meir.