A little less than five months ago began the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Since late February, public interest in the conflict has declined significantly. Search engine queries, media coverage and social media interactions about the war bear witness to this: they have all seen significant declines.
On Facebook, there were already four times fewer publications linked to the keyword “Ukraine” barely a month after the start of the Russian invasion, according to the analysis tool CrowdTangle. Same thing with reactions to these same publications: if the latter recorded a daily average of 75 million interactions during the first five days of the conflict, they only had half a million from July 15 to 19.
Queries made on the Google search engine in Canada confirm the trend. Interest in the term “Ukraine”, which was at its peak during the week of February 20-26, was also four times less a month later.
Over a six-week period in April and May, there was even about six times more interest in the lawsuit between Johnny Depp and Amber Heard than in the conflict in Ukraine, according to data from NewsWhip, an analysis firm of social media engagement.
According to Renaud-Philippe Garner, assistant professor in the Department of Economics, Philosophy and Political Science at the University of British Columbia, the growing disinterest in the war in Ukraine is “undeniable”.
In general, the only people who still seem to be interested in it are affected by the conflict, he explains straight away. “These are people linked to Ukraine, who have personal, family or cultural ties. […] Then there are the professionals who work in defense and international relations,” he gives as examples. Then there are the people who, for all sorts of reasons, are fascinated by this armed struggle.
“I think that once we’ve gone around these three groups, it’s quite difficult to find people [qui s’intéressent au conflit] observes the trained philosopher.
This slowdown is also observable among governments, whose financial support and promises are running out of steam. Between June 8 and June 1er July, only a few new commitments to Ukraine were added, and they were less substantial, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which compiles data on the sums pledged to Ukraine. Military and financial deliveries are still below what Ukraine says it needs – and what has been promised to the country –, indicates the organization.
collective identity
For Charles-Philippe David, founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, it is completely normal that armed conflicts arouse less interest over time, and Ukraine is no exception to this trend. “Unless there is an imminent danger of escalation, most of the time conflicts fall into some form of ‘forgetting’ or torpor on the international scene,” he says.
Although there is no single explanation for this change in the panorama, Professor Garner believes that three dimensions can come to explain the phenomenon: first, the fact that the conflict is prolonged; then, his character, which quickly became “static”; finally, distance, both physical and emotional.
“Yes, there is wear and tear, but wear and tear doesn’t explain everything, because there are rather old events that still evoke a lot of emotions. […] If we only summarized this in time, it would be difficult to explain how the attacks of September 11 still mobilize and why Ukraine, which was invaded less than a year ago, seems almost a dead letter”, argues- he.
Then there is the absence of major developments, with the two sides now clashing over smaller territories for control of the east of the country.
That said, although the static character that the conflict took on may contribute to disinterest, it does not explain everything either, according to the professor of philosophy, who recalls that the First World War had a static front for more than three years without the European newspapers losing interest.
So it’s more of a result of human psychology, because of the remote nature of the conflict and the lack of a “collective identity,” argues Garner.
People tend to be interested in groups that look like them and that they particularly identify with, he says. “In my opinion, this is a distant conflict, which does not concern the average person who lives in Montreal or in Manchester, in the United Kingdom. It’s not their lives that are being bombarded, it’s not their families that are fighting on the front lines. »
Western pressure
As the shock of the Russian invasion wears off, analysts say the Kremlin could exploit a protracted conflict and profit from waning interest from Western powers, which could pressure Ukraine to find common ground.
“It is obvious that Russia is determined to wear down the West and is now building its strategy on the assumption that Western countries will tire and gradually start changing their militant rhetoric to more accommodating rhetoric,” Volodymyr said. Fesenko, a political analyst with the Penta Center think tank, told The Associated Press.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already taken offense at Western suggestions for compromise. “The fatigue is increasing, people want some kind of result [qui est bénéfique] for themselves, and we want [un autre] result for ourselves,” he said.
According to Charles-Philippe David, it is always possible that the public interest will regain strength, the conflict is far from over. “There may be factors that would cause the situation or the political mood to change, which would bring the conflict back into the public arena. The nuclear threat, for example.
“If, tomorrow, President Putin attacks a Baltic country, the articles [sur le conflit] are going to come back. But the fact that he didn’t shows that we were more afraid than he was of the existence of nuclear power,” he concludes.