In Rotterdam, the Dutch TTF index, which is the benchmark for natural gas in Europe, soared on Tuesday August 16 to reach a new high in six months, when the invasion of Ukraine by the Russia disrupted the markets. At more than 225 euros per MWh – and even 251 euros in session – natural gas has never been so expensive in five years in this season. A surge in gas which contrasts with the lull in oil, which seems to him to have turned the page on the war in Ukraine.
At a time when Russian gas imports are drying up in Europe, demand is rising a notch, which logically drives prices up. This increase in demand comes from Germany, the largest European gas consumer – Russian up to now – faced with the drying up of the Rhine, a vital river axis for its industry and therefore its economy. The level of the Rhine has dropped so much with the high temperatures that the barges which supply German thermal power stations with coal and oil can no longer pass, forcing operators to burn more gas to produce electricity, despite higher prices. higher.
But this new gas surge above all gives a taste of the difficulties that Germany is likely to experience this winter. In a country where half of the households are heated with gas, the bill promises to be steep. Already, the German government has planned to reduce its gas consumption by 20% to avoid any rationing, and it will involve companies and households that can afford it, to save the most modest.
France is much less vulnerable than its German neighbor, for several reasons. First, because even before the war in Ukraine, it depended only very little on gas, which represented only 16% of its energy needs, an even smaller share coming from Russia.
The other advantage of France is that it took the turn very early on to LNG – liquefied natural gas – which enabled it to diversify its supplies from the United States and Qatar. For the past few months, the French LNG terminals spread over the Atlantic seaboard have been running at full speed. And as supply becomes abundant compared to traditional gas, prices even tend to fall.
Finally, for individuals, this more expensive gas has no impact for the moment because of the energy price shield which freezes regulated gas prices until the end of the year, just as it limits the rise in electricity prices, which enables France to post one of the lowest inflation rates in Europe.