Will the executive draw it, this famous article of the Constitution which allows the government to have a text adopted without a vote? The question will dominate discussions all week. The Chairman of the Finance Committee, the rebellious Eric Coquerel, has already begged “solemnly” the government not to use it. The Minister of Public Accounts, Gabriel Attal, has already castigated the “blocking“of the opposition which tabled thousands of amendments. So, without spoiler the end of the film, in this case this comedy already seen and reviewed a thousand times, not only will the government use 49-3 by the end of the week, but that suits everyone. Including the opposition. And even rather the opposition.
The 49.3 suits everyone:
– Because the rebels and the whole left will scream “forced passage“, in denial of”democracy”. What victimize themselves, mobilize for their demonstration on Sunday against the “expensive life” and remake, for a time, the unity of the Nupes around the filing of a motion of censure. A welcome truce as the left continues to tear itself apart over the Mélenchon and Rousseau cases and the Quatennens and Bayou cases.
– The 49-3 also suits the right. The government is courting the LR deputies who are trying to weigh in, to have a few amendments adopted. But to vote for the budget is to join, in fact, the majority. And only a handful of LR deputies could be tempted to abstain.
– And then 49-3 also suits the executive. This will allow him to show that he can govern. And above all, he will send the RN puzzle back to Nupes with this question; will the left and the extreme right be ready to vote together on a motion of censure?
>> Budget: the use of 49.3, “it will be before the weekend”, predicts an executive of the presidential majority
And let it be said right away: no, it doesn’t matter to use the 49-3. It is a legal tool offered by the Constitution. Since the 2008 revision, its use has even been strictly limited, a government can only use it for three texts per year: the budget, the Social Security financing bill and a third text of its choice. Finally, resorting to 49-3 is necessarily an admission of weakness for the executive, but in the present case, it will only confirm two political realities that everyone knows: in the Assembly, the government has no only a relative majority, and there is no alternative majority.