The death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh could strengthen the hawks in the Palestinian Islamist movement and lead to retaliation against Israel.
Many Palestinian political figures hail the contribution of the former prime minister in Gaza to the fight for Palestinian rights, but residents of the occupied territories are worried about what comes next.
After almost ten months of war between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip and an escalation between armed groups in southern Lebanon and Israel, the situation is particularly explosive.
Who will succeed Haniyeh?
Mr Haniyeh’s deputy, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed on January 2 in a strike attributed to Israel in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Two successors are now being considered: Moussa Abou Marzouk, a senior member of the political bureau considered to be close to Mr Haniyeh’s positions.
More moderate than Hamas’ armed wing, Mr Marzouk advocates accepting the 1967 borders for a future Palestinian state. A controversial position within the movement.
In the 1990s, he resided in the United States, where he was arrested on charges of being linked to funding Hamas’s military wing. He subsequently lived in Jordan, Egypt and Qatar. Mr. Abou Marzouk represented Hamas in several indirect negotiations with Israel.
Another potential successor, Khalil al-Haya, is number two in Hamas’s political bureau in Gaza and knows well the head of its armed wing, Yahya Sinouar.
In 2006, he led the Hamas parliamentary bloc, which had just emerged victorious from legislative elections that degenerated into armed clashes with the Fatah movement of President Mahmoud Abbas.
A fervent supporter of the armed struggle, he lost several members of his family during Israeli strikes in Gaza in 2007.
Some observers also put forward the name of Khaled Mechaal, Mr Haniyeh’s predecessor.
What impact for Hamas?
“Hamas will overcome this crisis,” a senior member of the movement assured AFP. Israel “assassinated great leaders like the founder of the movement, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, and this only increased the power of Hamas,” he added, speaking on condition of anonymity.
When they meet, its executives will have “a huge number of personalities capable of leading,” Joost Hiltermann, director of the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told AFP.
But for Hugh Lovatt, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), this “extremely traumatic event for the movement […] could embolden hardliners.”
“Haniyeh has brought about a moderate dynamic within Hamas, even if it is relative,” he explained to AFP.
What are the consequences for Israel?
While some Israelis have celebrated Mr Haniyeh’s death on social media, many fear a military escalation.
Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of hostages captured by Hamas to Israel on October 7 are in jeopardy, Lovatt said. Because “the political leadership based in Doha, led by Haniyeh, would have put pressure on Sinwar and the Hamas leadership to accept a ceasefire,” he said.
For Mkhaimar Aboussada, a Palestinian political scientist, reprisals could come “from the West Bank or from Hamas groups in southern Lebanon.” He also cited the possibility of “a suicide bombing or a shooting attack against Israeli soldiers or settlers.”
The Israeli war cabinet is due to meet in Jerusalem this afternoon, according to Israeli media reports.
And for the region?
“This assassination takes the war to another level and will have enormous consequences throughout the region,” Hamas’ armed wing threatened.
“Even if the actors involved do not intend to unleash an all-out war, each escalation increases the risk that the situation will spiral out of control,” says Lina Khatib of the think tank Chatham House.
Although Iran has not announced how it intends to respond to this death on its territory, most analysts point out that, like the Islamist movement Hezbollah, also targeted by Israel in the last 24 hours, it has no interest in launching into a large-scale war with Israel.
“Iran will only react and mobilize its allies if its vital interests are threatened, which is not the case at present,” Mr. Hiltermann said.