while Italy has the highest old age index in the Union, Russia loses more than 700,000 inhabitants per year

The birth rate in France has fallen below 700,000 births in 2023. If this situation worries the country, Italy and Russia are facing a collapse in their curves. Our correspondents describe the situation on site.

INSEE has published an alarming report on demographics in France in 2023. In 2023, 678,000 babies were born in the country, or 6.6% less than in 2022, and 20% than in 2010. This is the lowest number of births in one year since 1946. But with a fertility rate of 1.68 children per woman, France remains well positioned compared to its European neighbors, notably Italy and Russia, where figures show accelerated aging of the population.

In Italy, being a parent “is just one option among others”

In Italy, the figures are catastrophic. With fewer than 400,000 births in 2022 and a fertility rate of 1.2 children per woman, the country is losing inhabitants. Today there are less than 59 million people in the “boots”, when 10 years ago there were still more than 60 million. The projections are pessimistic and show a hemorrhage. They predict around 5 million fewer people by 2050. It’s as if Rome and Milan disappeared from the map! If we continue the curve, this will result in 11 million fewer in 2070. These are the median forecasts which are the most probable, according to demographers. Without immigration, the fall would be even more brutal: one in five births in 2023 was to a non-Italian mother.

This drop in the birth rate can be explained firstly by a mechanical phenomenon. The first Italian “demographic winter” dates from the 1990s. Nearly 30 years later, the generation, now of childbearing age, is naturally smaller. Then, we probably find the same factors as in France, “concern for the environment, anxiety aroused by ongoing wars” that promote choice “not to start a family”according to demographer Maria Rita Testa, associate professor at Luiss University in Rome, who adds that“Being a parent is just one option among many”.

To counter the decline in births, measures such as the universal family allowance, implemented 3 years ago, have no effect. Demographers insist on investment in crèches and in female employment, which would consolidate the economic balance of families. Italy is at the bottom of the European pack for female employment. Italy is an aging country. In itself it is not a tragedy, but it weakens the social model. There will only be one contributor for every retiree in around fifteen years. “We are approaching a critical stage”warns the president of the Social Security Institute.

In Russia, Vladimir Putin multiplies measures in vain

Russia is losing people at a rate of 700,000 to 800,000 per year. In recent months, the number of births in the country has returned to 1945 levels and the outlook is very bleak. According to the United Nations, the Russian population, currently 146 million, could fall to 120 million in 2050. The problem is not new, it dates back to the collapse of the USSR in 1991. In the wake of the economic crisis that hit the country, the birth rate collapsed and so did life expectancy, especially among men. Since then, life expectancy has recovered, but fertility remains a major problem. The fertility rate is 1.5 children on average, which is clearly insufficient to ensure the maintenance of the population. If the trend continues at the end of the century, Russia will have approximately as many inhabitants as at the end of the tsarist era.

The Russian government is trying to stop this trend. OWe can even say that it is an obsession with Vladimir Putin. In his speeches, the destiny of the country is often linked to its ability to recover its demographics. As soon as he came to power in 2000, the head of the Kremlin launched a pro-natalist policy, with several plans including financial incentives and facilities for families. After a slight recovery, the birth rate has started to decline again since 2014, despite Vladimir Putin’s appeal: “Our grandmothers had seven or eight children, let’s revive these wonderful traditions.” The Russians did not hear this and the events of recent years have not made things easier. The Covid epidemic probably caused a million deaths in Russia, the war caused hundreds of thousands of men to flee because they did not want to be mobilized, without counting the combat deaths, the number of which is uncertain. The context of gloom and uncertainty looms over the country and Russia does not currently have the solution to meet the birth rate challenge.