The number of ridings deemed “safe” for the Liberals has shrunk across the country, even in Quebec, where half the caucus was elected with a smaller margin than in Toronto–St. Paul’s, which was lost to the Conservatives last Monday.
“I think the Liberals can count the number of safe seats in Quebec on the fingers of two hands,” says polling blogger Philippe J. Fournier.
The mood of respondents to the latest national polls leads him to say that barely twenty ridings in the country are completely out of danger for the Liberals in the next election. About half are in Quebec.
Of the 35 Liberal candidates elected in Quebec in the last federal election, 17 won a race that was closer than in Toronto–St. Paul’s, where Minister Carolyn Bennett received more than 12,000 more votes than her closest rival (49.2 per cent of the vote). That lead didn’t stop the former Liberal stronghold from turning dark blue in a by-election on June 24.
This list includes the only two Quebec MPs who are keeping quiet about their political future, but also up to seven Quebec ministers in the government. Canadian Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge, for example, was elected with a lead of 197 votes in 2021. The lead was 2,281 votes for Montreal minister Steven Guilbeault and 2,618 votes for her colleague from Gaspésie, Diane Lebouthillier.
Ministers Soraya Martinez Ferrada (Tourism), Marie-Claude Bibeau (Revenue), François-Philippe Champagne (Industry) and Jean-Yves Duclos (Procurement) all won less than the incumbent MP for Toronto–St. Paul’s three years ago. They will face the electorate again no later than the fall of 2025, in a context of a general decline for the Liberals in the polls.
Uncertain parallels
“When I saw the election in [Toronto–]St. Paul’s, my first reaction was to say to myself: What does that mean for the west of Montreal? ” says Geneviève Tellier, professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.
She’s referring to the other half of Quebec’s Liberal seats, the 18 whose victory was even more dramatic than Justin Trudeau’s 12,545-vote lead in Papineau in 2021. “There may be more Liberal strongholds in the Montreal area than in the Toronto area,” notes Ms.me Tellier, who defines them as constituencies that keep the same allegiance throughout the elections. The Liberals also have them in Outaouais and Laval.
On a map of Montreal, everything west of De Bleury Street has been essentially carpeted in red for more than 30 years, with the exception of the 2011 election, when an “orange wave” sent 59 Quebec MPs from the New Democratic Party (NDP) to Ottawa. The seven ridings that remained Liberal were all on the island of Montreal.
Unlike then, the current strength of the Bloc Québécois changes the situation. The same drop in the Liberal vote would not have the same effect in Quebec as in the other provinces, according to the experts interviewed.
The split vote dynamics make it possible to win an election race with a smaller lead than elsewhere, which can benefit the Liberals. Then, unlike what is happening with the Toronto Liberals, it is not the Conservative Party of Canada that is warming up most of the incumbent elected officials in Quebec, but rather their opponents from the Bloc Québécois. According to Philippe J. Fournier’s calculations, this party would have more safe seats in Quebec (27) than the Liberal Party in the entire country (20).
His model places Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives out of danger in 144 Canadian ridings, according to current polls. A group of nine Liberal MPs have reportedly requested an urgent caucus meeting, according to several media outlets. Justin Trudeau refused to promise him this meeting on Wednesday.
Race to do
“What I’m waiting for is the race in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. That’s a Liberal stronghold in the Montreal region,” concludes Geneviève Tellier. She doubts the Conservatives have a chance there, but the Bloc Québécois and the NDP could play spoilsport.
In short, if Toronto–St. Paul’s was a barometer for Toronto’s Liberal strongholds, the riding unoccupied since the departure of former Justice Minister David Lametti will measure the resilience of those in Montreal. The Prime Minister has until July 30 to call a by-election.
In the last general election, Justin Trudeau’s troops won 20 of the 22 ridings in Montreal and Laval, including LaSalle–Émard–Verdun by 9,869 votes. The Conservatives have not elected a candidate in Montreal or Laval since 1988, before the Bloc Québécois was founded.