Three months have passed since the entry of Russian troops on Ukrainian soil at the end of February. Tuesday, May 24, Kremlin soldiers intensified their offensive on the last pocket of resistance in the Luhansk region, in the east of the country. “The next weeks of war will be difficult”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had warned the day before, while his army has been experiencing for several days “difficulties” in the Donbass.
>> Follow the latest information on the war in Ukraine in our live
The conflict has already caused several thousand deaths in Ukraine, civilians and soldiers, without it being possible to establish an exact assessment of the fighting. In Mariupol alone, a strategic southern port besieged by the Russians for several months, the Ukrainian authorities put forward the figure of 20,000 people killed. Some 234 children were killed and 433 injured, the office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine also denounced on Tuesday.
How is the situation on the ground evolving? What scenarios are emerging for the coming weeks? Three months to the day after the start of the offensive, the correspondent of France Télévisions in Russia, Luc Lacroix, answered your questions in the live of franceinfo.
@Jeans : Do you think Russia can win the war?
Luc Lacroix: It all depends on what you mean by “to win”. The initial objective displayed by Russia is the “demilitarization” and the “denazification” from Ukraine. Today, she failed to overthrow the government in kyiv. It advanced into the Donbass, beyond what its pro-Russian allies controlled, and into southern Ukraine. What is difficult to know is what it will be able to display as a victory to its population, since a crushing of the Ukrainian army supported by the West does not seem within its reach today.
@Ds:After a counter-offensive in Kharkiv, the Ukrainians no longer seem to be making any offensive gains. Why ?
The armaments delivered in recent months by the West are a decisive asset for the Ukrainians, like the aid they receive in terms of intelligence. But in front of them they have the bulk of the Russian forces. The latter deployed in the Kharkiv region and in the north of Donbass after their withdrawal, more than a month ago, from the north of kyiv.
@Gssa: Is it possible for Ukraine to win the war without losing part of its territory (other than Crimea, annexed in 2014 by Russia)?
Beyond Crimea, there is also the question of the part of Donbass already controlled by pro-Russian separatists: the “self-proclaimed people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. Vladimir Putin will not want to return these territories to Ukraine, because the situation of Russian speakers in the Donbass is the other reason he puts forward to justify his intervention. [En termes de politique intérieure], it would be a real snub for him. Same thing for Mariupol, which before February 24 was not controlled by the separatists.
“The capture of Mariupol is the main victory that the Russians can claim so far.”
Luc Lacroix, France Télévisions correspondent in Russia
Finally, there is the question of the large strip in southern Ukraine, which links Donbass and Crimea. At first, the Russians implied that their presence there was only temporary. But we were able to go to Kherson a few days ago with the Russian army. On the spot, the local officials put in place by the Russians told us that they wanted to be attached to Russia. It is difficult to know the general feeling of the population but the few inhabitants to whom we were able to speak told us that they wanted to stay in Ukraine.
@Jerome: How much longer can this conflict last?
Today, we have the impression that we are moving towards a long-term conflict. Although there are still movements in the northern Donbass, the lines [de front] have generally been frozen for several weeks. Neither side is in a position to claim victory or concede defeat. On the side of the Ukrainian population or like that of Vladimir Putin, the determination is flawless.
@Philippe: Is it possible to estimate the Russian losses?
This is one of the big issues in this conflict. The Kremlin has not communicated since the end of March on this point. He said then that there had been 1,351 deaths [parmi ses troupes]. The subject is very sensitive in Russia. The leaders all have in mind the painful memory of the war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, when 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed.
Estimates are given by Western countries on Russian losses in Ukraine: a French military source evokes with AFP around 15,000 dead. If so, it’s huge, since it corresponds to the total number of deaths during the ten years of war in Afghanistan.
@Indévokyga: In your opinion, is the nuclear threat wielded by Russia real?
Lrussia is blowing hot and cold on this subject. Officially, she says she doesn’t want to use nuclear weapons, but from time to time she hints that might be the case. And the Russian media echo this.
“The Russians know very well that the use of nuclear force would be dramatic. But the fact that the West imagines that it is possible, even if this possibility seems very remote, gives the Kremlin a means of pressure.”
Luc Lacroix, France Télévisions correspondent in Russia
Beyond using nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory, Russia might want to show force by using them in the Arctic or in another territory, with the aim of creating fear. In any case, this is what several experts mentioned a few weeks ago.
@Tony: Can this war spread to other countries?
We are very worried about the fate of Moldova, where, as in Ukraine, there is a pro-Russian separatist region, Transnistria. A few weeks ago, several incidents there raised fears of a conflagration.
Another concern was the potential direct involvement of Belarus in the conflict. It let Russia use its bases, its territory, but so far we have no evidence that it intervened directly.
As for the possibility that Russia wants to open another front with another country, that currently seems unlikely because a large part of its army is already mobilized in Ukraine. For their part, the West massively delivers arms to Ukraine but is careful not to intervene directly.
@JJ: What could make Vladimir Putin bend?
So far, there has not been a massive movement among the Russian population, among the elites, who seem able to challenge the power held by Vladimir Putin. Even the international sanctions and the impact they are gradually having on the Russian population and economy have not moved him.
“What is certain is that Vladimir Putin will seek at all costs to protect his power.”
Luc Lacroix, France Télévisions correspondent in Russia
One of his obsessions is the stability of Russian power. It is difficult, at present, to know what can cause it to bend. Apart from a huge military defeat, but we are not there at all.
@JJ: Are the sanctions against Russia effective?
Many international companies withdrew from Russia, either because their field of activity was affected by the sanctions, or for image issues or simply because they could no longer work. Inflation is high in the country, due in particular to supply and logistics problems. But thanks in particular to major interventions by the Central Bank of Russia, there has been no collapse of the rouble at this stage, quite the contrary.
IThere have also been personal sanctions against those close to Vladimir Putin or those in power. All this has an impact, transforms the country which is closing in on itself. For example, there are no more air connections with many countries. But that did not change Vladimir Putin’s determination.
@Trago: QWhat do we know about the level of information and support of the Russian population for what the Kremlin presents as a “special operation” in Ukraine ?
Regarding the level of information, I was still listening to Russian television just now and there is a lot of talk about the offensive. But it is presented as an operation against those who are called “Nazis”. It is of course a completely different presentation from what we can see at home.
As for the support of the population, it is complicated to assess it in Russia. Experts say polls are unreliable, especially on political issues like this. JI would say that there are three Russias: the Russians who clearly support this operation, who are often watered by these messages on Russian television; those who oppose it, who get information by other means such as [la messagerie] Telegram; and then there are those who don’t want to get involved, who stay away from political subjects, who focus on their loved ones, on their families.
These are very numerous. There is a kind of fatalism in the face of politics, which has long been perceived as something risky. What I find difficult to assess is the respective weight of each of these three Russias.
@D0m: Do you have difficulties, as a French journalist, to work in Russia? Have you been arrested for your reporting?
We have never been arrested. There is now a law that punishes heavy prison sentences for “false information” about the Russian armed forces. In itself, this should not concern us because we do not give false information. But everything actually depends on the application that will be made of this law.
“Last week, the Moscow office of Canadian television was closed. So this is a context where there is significant pressure on journalists, including Western journalists.”
Luc Lacroix, France Télévisions correspondent in Russia
Our priority is to respect the principles of journalism as always, but perhaps by explaining it even more than usual: the verification of our information, our sources and respect for the contradictory. What is complicated is that people are more reluctant than before to talk to us. It was already difficult before, it is even more today.